Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

Bhavin Shah
(852) 2800-8538
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
204
Asia Pacific Equity Research
20 April 2009
Table 107: Worldwide Blue Laser DVD drive shipments by form factor (2007-2013E)
Millions
2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
CAGR
2008-13E
Shipments
Half height 0.7 1.6 4.1 11.4 25.7 43.3 51.6 99.7
Slim 0.5 4.0 11.0 18.3 46.3 100.8 177.1 113.2
Total 1.2 5.6 15.1 29.7 72.0 144.1 228.8 109.7
Growth (%)
Share (%)
NA 367 170 97 142 100 59
Half height 58.3 28.6 27.2 38.4 35.7 30.0 22.6
Slim 41.7 71.4 72.8 61.6 64.3 70.0 77.4
Total
Source: IDC, 2009.
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Blu-ray: Adoption rate faster than VCR/CD/DVD, but expected to slow down
BD adoption rate for its starting years has been faster compared to that of VCR, CD
and DVD during their initial years. This is primarily driven by rapid revolution in
digital AV and shift to digital broadcasting. However, for mid-long term, we expect
it to slow down as HDD embedded TV and network download will spread and
compete with BD.
Figure 120: Shipment volumes of VCR, CD, DVD & BD for first 7 years of their launch
Shipment (in millions)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: JEITA, J.P. Morgan estimates.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Year from launch
VCR CD Player DVD Play er BD Play er
Note: Timeline for VCRs starts from 1975, CD Players from 1982, DVD Player from 1996, BD Player from 2006 (estimates for year 4
and onwards)
According to a recent IDC report, they expect low consumer confidence and
uncertainties in PC market driven by the global economic downturn to delay the Bluray
disc adoption. It is expected that sub-$100 BD-ROM will lead the way for BD
format's adoption.