Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

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Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com 266 Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 April 2009 LFP In LFP, the cathode is made up of Olivine Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4). These batteries are relatively newer to LMS. Both LMS and LFP are theoretically equivalent to one another. However, LFP is still developing as it is a newer technology. Compared to LMS, LFP has a lower voltage output, but a higher capacity. Also, LFP is thermally more stable, as FePO4 ion is thermally very stable and hence oxygen release is no longer an issue. BYD’s F3DM is based on LFP batteries. The biggest issue with the LFP batteries is their very poor low temperature performance. LFP technology is currently entangled in patent disputes. The patent for the Lithium olivine structure is currently held by UT Austin. A123 systems and some other LFP battery manufacturers are involved in patent infringement lawsuits filed by UT Austin and Hydro-Quebec. In December 2008, the European patent office rejected the patent infringement lawsuit of UT Austin, making it easier for LFP manufacturers to use it in automotive applications in Europe; this is even as NTT Japan paid US$30 million to UT as settlement of the LFP lawsuit. These patent wars could mean additional roadblocks in use of LFP for automotive uses. Table 146: Comparison of Li ion-based batteries LMS LFP Li-Co Voltage output (V) 3.7-3.8 3.2-3.3 3.6 Energy density (Wh/kg) 110-120 95-140 110-190 Specific capacity (mAh/g) 150 170 140 Safety Very Good Excellent Bad Cost Low Low High Cycle life Source: J.P. Morgan. 300-500 >1000 >300 Besides these two dominant varieties, other Li ion batteries include Lithium Cobalt oxide and Lithium Nickel oxide. Besides Lithium ion and Nickel-based batteries, Electronic Double Layer capacitor (EDLC) and solar-powered cells are some other alternative technologies being developed for EVs. Table 147: Comparison with other automotive batteries PB-Acid NI/Cd Ni/MH LiB EDLC Energy density △ ○ ○-◎ ◎ × Power performance ○-◎ ○-◎ ○-◎ ◎ ◎ Life ×-△ ◎ ◎ ○ ◎ Safety ○ ○ ○ × ○ Reliability ○ ○ ○ ? ○ Cost ○ ×-△ ×-△ × ○ Resource ◎ ◎ △-○ △-○ ○ Environment Source: M&G EBC. △ × ○ ○ ○ Note: ◎: Excellent, ○: Great, △: Inadequate, ×: Poor. Key players in the battery market The battery market is dominated by Japanese manufacturers. At present, the five Japanese battery manufacturers (Panasonic EV Energy, AESC, Lithium Energy Japan, Sanyo Electric, and Hitachi Vehicle Energy) and five companies from other parts of the world (JCS, SB LiMotive, BYD, A123 Systems, and LG Chemical) compete on development in the automotive LiB market.
Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com Figure 163: Market share for consumer Li-ion batteries (FY07, value) % NEC Tokin 2% Hitachi maxell BYD 3% 7% LG chemical 9% Panasonic Samsung SDI 9% 13% Others 10% While Japanese battery makers are still dominating LiB in consumer/IT products, their technology lead in EV/HEV adoption is not significant, as the current HEV models (Toyota Prius) are still using NiMH batteries. On the other hand, GM recently chose LG Chem to be the LiB supplier for Chevy Volt, and BYD also announced F3DM (PHEV) and E6 (EV), based on its own LFP. Thus, we believe it is too early to say which players will come out ahead. Sanyo elec. 30% Sony 17% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates based on discussions with companies. Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 April 2009 Figure 164: Market share for automotive NiMH (FY07, value) % Sany o Others 13% 2% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates based on discussions with companies. Panasonic EV energy 85% Alliances between battery makers and the automobile industry The pace of tie-ups between battery manufacturers and automobile OEMs on HEV batteries has accelerated in recent months. Companies such as Panasonic and NEC have established joint ventures for development and manufacture with automobile manufacturers, strategically seeking to secure customers for their sales. According to Sanyo Electric, the company has taken the bold policy step of seeking to supply to all Japanese, US and European automakers, rather than tying itself into a joint venture with a single firm. Similarly, Hitachi Vehicle Energy, mainly set up with capital from Hitachi, has taken on board no capital from automobile manufacturers, seeking to sell to all quarters. 267
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Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

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