Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

Bhavin Shah
(852) 2800-8538
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
Table 25: HDD—Industry unit shipments forecast
46
Asia Pacific Equity Research
20 April 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
Desktop drives 214,494 229,907 250,220 236,830 183,328 188,146
Y/Y growth % 14.4% 7.2% 8.8% -5.4% -22.6% 2.6%
Q/Q growth %
Notebook drives 77,530 101,356 143,580 186,934 174,849 196,517
Y/Y growth % 44.2% 30.7% 41.7% 30.2% -6.5% 12.4%
Q/Q growth %
Enterprise drives 26,200 27,706 29,870 31,962 25,675 26,924
Y/Y growth % 10.8% 5.7% 7.8% 7.0% -19.7% 4.9%
Q/Q growth %
CE drives 61,611 76,469 78,210 81,760 69,773 78,196
Y/Y growth % 53.3% 24.1% 2.3% 4.5% -14.7% 12.1%
Q/Q growth %
3.5-inch CE drives 25,136 30,312 35,620 37,620 32,023 35,062
Y/Y growth % 22.4% 20.6% 17.5% 5.6% -14.9% 9.5%
Q/Q growth %
2.5-inch CE drives 6,535 18,680 22,150 25,050 21,537 23,410
Y/Y growth % 97.3% 185.8% 18.6% 13.1% -14.0% 8.7%
Q/Q growth %
1.8-inch CE drives 15,354 23,000 20,440 19,090 16,213 19,724
Y/Y growth % 88.4% 49.8% -11.1% -6.6% -15.1% 21.7%
Q/Q growth %
Total hard disk drives 379,835 435,438 501,880 537,486 453,625 489,783
Y/Y growth % 24.5% 14.6% 15.3% 7.1% -15.6% 8.0%
Q/Q growth %
Source: TrendFocus through C2007, company data, and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Starting with March 2007 quarter, 1.0-inch HDD units are included in 1.8-inch category.
HDD components
Disk media: The leading merchant manufacturers of aluminum magnetic disks are
Fuji Electric and Showa Denko. The major merchant suppliers of glass disks include
Hoya Glass, Nippon Glass, Showa Denko, and Toyo Kohan. Depending on the type
of substrate used in the HDD, there are 3.5-inch aluminum magnetic disks serving
desktop PCs, PVR/DVRs, and enterprise sub-systems. Notebook HDDs utilize 2.5inch
glass magnetic disks, but some non-mobile applications employ aluminumbased
2.5-inch disks. The 1.8-inch disk drives used in iPod Classic and other devices
employ glass-based disks. Glass-based disks are utilized in mobile and handheld
applications owing to their properties of less vibration and greater shock tolerance.
Recording heads: The hard disk drive enclosure also includes read/write recording
heads, attached to suspension assemblies. These heads record and read data on the
magnetic fields in the platters. TDK is the only remaining merchant supplier of
recording heads. Hutchinson Technology, NHK Spring, and SAE/TDK
(Magnecomp) are the key suppliers of suspension assemblies, which hold the
recording head above the spinning disk.
Other components that go into hard disk drives include controller ICs, pre-amp ICs,
read/write channel ICs, spindle motors, base plates (Beyonics and Nidec-Brilliant),
covers (Seksun, Nidec-Brilliant, Amtek) and screws (Unisteel).