Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com Semiconductor manufacturing technology trends and capital equipment ............................................................... 295 What’s new? .................................................................................................................295 Semiconductor manufacturing industry........................................................................295 Semiconductor capital equipment spending .................................................................296 Two facets of the semiconductor manufacturing process: Front-end and back-end .....302 Individual equipment segments ....................................................................................302 The front-end: Technology and equipment........................... 303 Wafer fab equipment ....................................................................................................306 Technology transitions in front-end manufacturing: Challenge and opportunity for capital equipment vendors.......................................................................................307 Patterning: Immersion lithography makes a big splash ................................................308 Transistor re-engineering..............................................................................................311 Interconnect structure: Modest evolutionary changes...................................................313 Lithography and process control-compelling 45nm investment themes.......................313 Wafer manufacturing transition to 450mm from 300mm .............................................318 Key beneficiaries ..........................................................................................................319 Back-end: Packaging, assembly & testing............................ 319 Packaging and assembly ...............................................................................................320 Automated test..............................................................................................................322 Competition ..................................................................................................................328 Foundry....................................................................................... 330 Sharp fall in revenues following seven year expansion................................................330 Capex, R&D budgets come under pressure, capital intensity decline to new low........330 The gap between fabless and foundry revenue QoQ growth converges to zero over time.......................................................................................................................332 Comparison of top four foundries.................................................................................334 Developments at leading foundries...............................................................................336 IC backend.................................................................................. 339 What’s new...................................................................................................................339 We expect OSAT unit growth of ~10% over the next 10 years....................................339 ASE and SPIL are targeting 10% revenue contribution from China in 2009E.............341 Technology developments in IC packaging .......................... 342 Copper wire as a low-cost solution: ASE and SPIL have started production in 4Q08 .........................................................................................................................342 Three-dimensional packages.........................................................................................342 SiP (system in package) continues to grow ..................................................................343 Through-silicon-vias (TSV): An evolutionary and revolutionary assembly technology ....................................................................................................................344 Types of TSV: First and last.........................................................................................344 294 Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 April 2009 Semiconductors
Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 April 2009 Semiconductor manufacturing technology trends and capital equipment What’s new? The semiconductor manufacturing process transition to sub-90nm is facing many challenges and creating opportunities for capital equipment vendors. 300mm has now 65% penetration and companies are looking for transition to 450mm. Intel, Samsung and TSMC reached a collaboration agreement to target the transition to 450mm from 300mm starting in 2012. But equipment vendors—AMAT, KLA, NVLS, and ASML—are not interested in migrating to 450mm as the ROI for capital equipment companies is apparently much lower. Automated test equipment (ATE) is discussed in detail; which is used as the master electrical circuit to perform a comprehensive test on each semiconductor device. ATE receives a significant portion of the capital expenditure for back-end equipment, with approximately 40% of back-end capital expenditure. We provide a market overview by individual application segments. We discuss trends in test methodology including the impact of advanced packaging. Lithography and process control remain the key winners in all wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending. In the following sections we include a brief discussion on the semiconductor industry value chain and then provide a detailed discussion on the capital equipment industry. Semiconductor manufacturing industry The growth of the semiconductor industry has been rapid. From 1954 to 2006, the annual industry revenue grew to US$247.7 billion; the total semiconductor industry revenue touched US$256 billion in 2007, setting a new all-time industry high. Endmarket slowdown has severely impacted the booming growth of this industry and revenue growth has been slightly negative in 2008. Figure 183: Annual semiconductor industry revenue 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1985 1986 Source: WSTS. 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Semi rev enue $ Billion (Right) 5-y ear CAGR rev enue grow th (Left) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 295
Page 1 and 2:
Tech Hardware Supply Chain An insti
Page 3 and 4:
Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244: Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.
Page 293: Bhavin Shah (852) 2800-8538 bhavin.
Page 345 and 346:
Page 347 and 348:
Page 349 and 350:
Page 351 and 352:
Page 353 and 354:
Page 355 and 356:
Page 357 and 358:
Page 359 and 360:
Page 361 and 362:
Page 363 and 364:
Page 365 and 366:
Page 367 and 368:
Page 369 and 370:
Page 371 and 372:
Page 373 and 374:
Page 375 and 376:
Page 377 and 378:
Page 379 and 380:
Page 381 and 382:
Page 383 and 384:
Page 385 and 386:
Page 387 and 388:
Page 389 and 390:
Page 391 and 392:
Page 393 and 394:
Page 395 and 396:
Page 397 and 398:
Page 399 and 400:
Page 401 and 402:
Page 403 and 404:
Page 405 and 406:
Page 407 and 408:
Page 409 and 410:
Page 411 and 412:
Page 413 and 414:
Page 415 and 416:
Page 417 and 418:
Page 419 and 420:
Page 421 and 422:
Page 423 and 424:
Page 425 and 426:
Page 427 and 428:
Page 429 and 430:
Page 431 and 432:
Page 433 and 434:
Page 435 and 436:
Page 437 and 438:
Page 439 and 440:
Page 441 and 442:
Page 443 and 444:
Page 445 and 446:
Page 447 and 448:
Page 449 and 450:
Page 451 and 452:
Page 453 and 454:
Page 455 and 456:
Page 457 and 458:
Page 459 and 460:
Page 461 and 462:
Page 463 and 464:
Page 465 and 466:
Page 467 and 468:
Page 469 and 470:
Page 471 and 472:
Page 473 and 474:
Page 475 and 476:
Page 477 and 478:
Page 479 and 480:
Page 481 and 482:
Page 483 and 484:
Page 485 and 486:
Page 487 and 488:
Page 489 and 490:
Page 491 and 492:
Page 493 and 494:
Page 495 and 496:
Page 497 and 498:
Page 499 and 500:
Page 501 and 502:
Page 503 and 504:
Page 505 and 506:
Page 507 and 508:
Page 509 and 510:
Page 511 and 512:
Page 513 and 514:
Page 515 and 516:
Page 517 and 518:
Page 519 and 520:
Page 521 and 522:
Page 523 and 524:
Page 525 and 526:
Page 527 and 528:
Page 529 and 530:
Page 531 and 532:
Page 533 and 534:
Page 535 and 536:
Page 537 and 538:
Page 539 and 540:
Page 541 and 542:
Page 543 and 544:
Page 545 and 546:
Page 547 and 548:
Page 549 and 550:
Page 551 and 552:
Page 553 and 554:
Page 555 and 556:
Page 557 and 558:
Page 559 and 560:
Page 561 and 562:
Page 563 and 564:
Page 565 and 566:
Page 567 and 568:
Page 569 and 570:
Page 571 and 572:
Page 573 and 574:
Page 575 and 576:
Page 577 and 578:
Page 579 and 580:
Page 581 and 582:
Page 583 and 584:
Page 585 and 586:
Page 587 and 588:
Page 589 and 590:
Page 591 and 592:
Page 593 and 594:
Page 595 and 596:
Page 597 and 598:
Page 599 and 600:
Page 601 and 602:
Page 603 and 604:
Page 605 and 606:
Page 607 and 608:
Page 609 and 610:
Page 611 and 612:
Page 613 and 614:
Page 615 and 616:
Page 617 and 618:
Page 619 and 620:
Page 621 and 622:
Page 623 and 624:
Page 625 and 626:
Page 627 and 628:
Page 629 and 630:
Page 631 and 632:
Page 633 and 634:
Page 635 and 636:
Page 637 and 638:
Page 639 and 640:
Page 641 and 642:
Page 643 and 644:
Page 645 and 646:
Page 647 and 648:
Page 649 and 650:
Page 651 and 652:
Page 653 and 654:
Page 655 and 656:
Page 657 and 658:
Page 659 and 660:
Page 661 and 662:
Page 663 and 664:
Page 665 and 666:
Page 667 and 668:
Page 669 and 670:
Page 671 and 672:
Page 673 and 674:
Page 675 and 676:
Page 677 and 678:
Page 679 and 680:
Page 681 and 682:
Page 683 and 684:
Page 685 and 686:
Page 687 and 688:
Page 689 and 690:
Page 691 and 692:
Page 693 and 694:
Page 695 and 696:
Page 697 and 698:
Page 699 and 700:
Page 701 and 702:
Page 703 and 704:
Page 705 and 706:
Page 707 and 708:
Page 709 and 710:
Page 711 and 712:
Page 713 and 714:
Page 715 and 716:
Page 717 and 718:
show all

Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?