Tech Hardware Supply Chain - Gazhoo

Bhavin Shah
(852) 2800-8538
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
22
Asia Pacific Equity Research
20 April 2009
Table 14: J.P. Morgan’s global server forecasts
US$ in millions, units in 000s
2007 1Q08A 2Q08A 3Q08A 4Q08 2008 1Q09E 2Q09E 3Q09E 4Q09E 2009E 2010E
Total server revenue 55,388 13,483 13,808 12,717 13,110 53,120 10,558 10,624 10,399 11,944 43,525 44,159
Windows 21,192 5,255 5,115 4,994 4,714 20,078 4,043 3,969 4,008 4,330 16,350 16,701
UNIX 16,876 4,074 4,322 3,650 4,074 16,120 3,292 3,367 3,034 3,669 13,362 13,391
Linux 8,426 2,076 2,028 2,102 1,880 8,087 1,661 1,608 1,680 1,718 6,667 6,815
Other 8,894 2,079 2,344 1,971 2,442 8,835 1,562 1,679 1,678 2,227 7,146 7,253
% of total revenue
Windows 38.3 39.0 37.0 39.3 36.0 37.8 38.3 37.4 38.5 36.3 37.6 37.8
UNIX 30.5% 30.2 31.3 28.7 31.1 30.3 31.2 31.7 29.2 30.7 30.7 30.3
Linux 15.2% 15.4 14.7 16.5 14.3 15.2 15.7 15.1 16.2 14.4 15.3 15.4
Other 16.1% 15.4 17.0 15.5 18.6 16.6 14.8 15.8 16.1 18.6 16.4 16.4
Y/Y % change
Total server revenues 4.9 2.0 3.9 -5.4 -15.1 -4.1 -21.7 -23.1 -18.2 -8.9 -18.1 1.5
Windows 12.9 2.3 1.3 -6.0 -17.2 -5.3 -23.1 -22.4 -19.8 -8.1 -18.6 2.1
UNIX 2.1 3.1 4.4 -10.1 -13.7 -4.5 -19.2 -22.1 -16.9 -9.9 -17.1 0.2
Linux 10.2 3.1 0.2 -1.8 -16.4 -4.0 -20.0 -20.7 -20.1 -8.6 -17.6 2.2
Other -9.7 -1.7 12.9 2.2 -12.0 -0.7 -24.9 -28.3 -14.9 -8.8 -19.1 1.5
Total server units 8,841 2,271 2,341 2,318 2,140 9,069 1,940 1,987 2,032 2,082 8,041 8,359
Windows 5,906 1,523 1,574 1,561 1,443 6,100 1,299 1,338 1,368 1,403 5,408 5,620
UNIX 632 152 157 149 148 605 130 130 132 139 531 548
Linux 2,095 551 563 568 509 2,192 477 485 497 502 1,961 2,045
Other 208 45 47 40 40 172 34 35 35 38 142 145
% of total units
Windows 66.8 67.1 67.2 67.3 67.5 67.3 67.0 67.3 67.3 67.4 67.3 67.2
UNIX 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.6
Linux 23.7 24.3 24.0 24.5 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.1 24.4 24.5
Other 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7
Y/Y % change
Total server units 7.4 7.5 12.2 4.4 -11.7 2.6 -14.6 -15.1 -12.4 -2.7 -11.3 4.0
Windows 9.0 8.2 12.6 5.2 -10.8 3.3 -14.7 -15.0 -12.3 -2.8 -11.3 3.9
UNIX -5.8 -0.3 -1.0 -4.7 -10.5 -4.2 -14.5 -17.2 -11.5 -5.7 -12.3 3.3
Linux 9.6 11.3 17.5 6.6 -13.4 4.6 -13.5 -13.9 -12.7 -1.2 -10.5 4.3
Other -11.4 -20.8 -7.3 -17.1 -23.7 -17.3 -24.1 -26.5 -12.5 -5.5 -17.7 2.7
Source: Gartner Servers Quarterly Statistics Worldwide Database, March 2009; estimates for 2009/2010 are from J.P. Morgan.