Development and Globalization: - Unctad

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OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Today the Prebisch-Singer thesis about the deterioration of terms of trade and the long-term decline of commodity prices is more valid than ever. For instance, in 2002 the price index of agricultural commodities deflated by the price index of manufactured exports of industrial economies in US dollars (74) was one half of the same index in 1980 (145). For tropical beverages and food, the decline was even steeper, with corresponding indices decreasing by 63% (from 102 to 37) and 56% (from 204 to 90) between 1980 and 2002. Despite an upswing since 2003, the long-term real decline in commodity prices has led to severe deterioration in terms of trade for many commoditydependent developing countries. This in turn has influenced balance-of-payments sustainability, impeded development and affected social welfare, while increasing impoverishment and environmental degradation. For example, between 1999 and 2002, coffee-producing countries and West African cotton-producing countries suffered opportunity costs of $19 billion and $1 billion respectively compared to the situation that would have prevailed had prices remained at 1998 levels. To learn more 82 5.3 Commodity prices ● The Prebisch-Singer thesis, proposed in 1950, suggests that, in the long-term, prices for primary commodity exports fall in relation to prices of manufactured imports. According to the hypothesis, this drop results from a number of factors, including divergence between the income elasticity of demand for primary products and the income elasticity of demand for manufactured products. Thus, the net barter terms of trade for commodity-producing developing countries are declining. DATA SOURCES [1] UNCTAD, Commodity Price Bulletin. UNCTAD publishes detailed information on commodity prices, including through the Commodity Price Bulletin (see www.unctad.org/statistics). It also prepares most of the chapters on developments in commodity markets, including prices, in the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects and the UN World Economic and Social Survey.
Commodity price indices [1] 400 300 200 100 Selected commodity prices [1] 600 500 400 300 200 100 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 0 0 Combined price indices in current and constant dollars (1985 = 100) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Combined index in current dollars Combined index in constant dollars Rice (US$/metric ton) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Copper (US$/metric ton) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 400 300 200 100 0 250 200 150 100 50 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 Commodity price trends 5.3 A Price indices of product groups in constant dollars (1985 = 100) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Tropical beverages Food Vegetable oilseeds and oils Agricultural raw materials Minerals, ores and metals Coffee (US¢/lb.) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Cotton (US¢/lb.) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 83
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2004 Development and Globalization:
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ii Note Development and Globalizati
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This publication was prepared by a
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vi Contents Notes ii Foreword iii A
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1 Countries, population and economi
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3 000 2 000 1 000 0 180 120 60 0 50
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33 Exports by commodity group, 2001
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160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 140 1
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2001 1990 1980 1970 12 8 4 0 600 50
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Population structure by age, 2000 [
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1970 2000 Illiteracy rate [1] Devel
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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ma
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60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Participation o
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Share of nominal GDP by region, 200
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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Gross dom
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OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Total aggregat
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26 2.1 External finance and debt OV
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OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS The total exte
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OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Ratios of debt
Page 42 and 43: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Global foreign
Page 44 and 45: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS In the past tw
Page 46 and 47: 36 2.2 Foreign direct investment OV
Page 49 and 50: 3 Transnational corporations and fo
Page 51 and 52: World's top 50 non-financial TNCs i
Page 53 and 54: Largest transnational corporations
Page 55: Selected indicators of internationa
Page 58 and 59: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS In 2002 the va
Page 60 and 61: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS An important f
Page 62 and 63: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Over the past
Page 64 and 65: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS The past 30 ye
Page 66 and 67: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS During the las
Page 68 and 69: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Between 1980 a
Page 70 and 71: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS International
Page 72 and 73: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS The main devel
Page 74 and 75: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS The world’s
Page 76 and 77: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS International
Page 78 and 79: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Tariffs of dev
Page 80 and 81: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS The past two d
Page 83 and 84: 5 Production and international trad
Page 85 and 86: Production of selected commodities
Page 87 and 88: 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 120 100 8
Page 89 and 90: 1966 2000 Share of commodity export
Page 91: 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Dist
Page 95: 50 40 30 20 10 Commodity price vola
Page 98 and 99: OVERVIEW DEFINITIONS Global industr
Page 100 and 101: 90 6.2 International trade in manuf
Page 102 and 103: 92 6.2 International trade in manuf
Page 105 and 106: 7 Information and communication tec
Page 107 and 108: Developed countries Developed count
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Page 112 and 113: AFRICA 58 North Africa 7 Algeria Eg
Page 114 and 115: CEPGL 3 (Economic Community of the
Page 116 and 117: ANCOM Andean Community APEC Asia-Pa
Page 118 and 119: Designed and printed by Publishing
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