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Four Essays on University Economics - KOPS - Universität Konstanz

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Return of foreign students<br />

Table 3.4 we summarize which individual and cultural variables have significant effects <strong>on</strong><br />

the return decisi<strong>on</strong>.<br />

The baseline hazard is initially decreasing. Graduates who spent more time in Germany<br />

after they finished their studies have a lower hazard rate: Their propensity to return in<br />

a given m<strong>on</strong>th is lower. The baseline hazard reaches a minimum at 56 m<strong>on</strong>ths after<br />

graduati<strong>on</strong>, then rises and peaks at 110 m<strong>on</strong>ths after graduati<strong>on</strong>. 10<br />

Graduates who came to Germany at an older age and graduates who visited home<br />

during their study period in Germany have a higher hazard rate. In a given m<strong>on</strong>th, they<br />

are more likely to return and are, thus, expected to return earlier than their peers. Time<br />

spent in Germany has a significantly negative but n<strong>on</strong>-linear effect <strong>on</strong> the return hazard.<br />

Students having spent more time in Germany are presumably better integrated and less<br />

likely to return. But the reducti<strong>on</strong> in the hazard rate becomes smaller with increasing<br />

time spent in Germany. 11 Students of agricultural sciences, of German and of medicine<br />

have a significantly higher hazard rate than students of other disciplines.<br />

The propensity to return is significantly higher for participants in the two invitati<strong>on</strong><br />

programs (Program 1 and Program 3) than for participants in Program 2 who were re-<br />

cruited in Germany. The hazard rate of catholic students is not significantly different<br />

from n<strong>on</strong>-catholic students. However, graduates from countries with a higher proporti<strong>on</strong><br />

of catholics in the populati<strong>on</strong> have a significantly lower hazard rate.<br />

Also cultural proximity has significant effects <strong>on</strong> the return decisi<strong>on</strong>. Students from<br />

countries in which a similar language is spoken have a significantly lower hazard rate.<br />

They have a higher propensity to stay and they can be expected to stay for a l<strong>on</strong>ger time.<br />

Graduates from Africa and from the Middle East are less likely to return than their peers<br />

from Latin America.<br />

Students from wealthier countries have a higher hazard rate and are, thus, more likely to<br />

return. In c<strong>on</strong>trast to our expectati<strong>on</strong>, graduates from countries with closer trade relati<strong>on</strong>s<br />

with Germany have a higher propensity to stay. If their home countries are important<br />

10 If the polynomial of the baseline hazard is: c1t + c2t 2 + c3t 3 the formula for the computati<strong>on</strong> of the<br />

trough and peak is: −c2± √ c2 2−3c1c3 .<br />

3c3<br />

√ 0.0025 2 −3(−0.1862)(−0.00001)<br />

Here: times of trough and peak = −0.0025±<br />

.<br />

3(−0.00001)<br />

11<br />

Only for students who spent more than 147.5 m<strong>on</strong>ths (computati<strong>on</strong>: |−0.0295/(2∗0.0001)|) in Germany<br />

at the end of the study period, the propensity to return starts to increase with time. Nobody stayed<br />

in Germany for such a l<strong>on</strong>g time.<br />

65

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