Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply - Embrapa

This scenario of increasing scarcity is rendered worse by the strong
world dependence on petroleum and gas from a specific region – the Middle
East – controlled by the cartel of petroleum producing countries (OPEC),
which holds 78% of world reserves. Such facts, together with the finitude of
the reserves and the heavy concentration of petroleum, coal and gas in the
world energy matrix, demand that alternatives be found for a secure transition
to an environment of sustainable energy supply.
While during the first and second petroleum shocks in the 1970s the
prevailing structural reason for price increases was a voluntary decrease of
supply (as a means of increasing prices), the price leap in this century is
linked to an expansion of the demand. From the strategic viewpoint, an
expansion of the demand is much more disquieting than a contraction of the
supply, because while the latter may be negotiated, the former is a proven fact
and much more difficult to work out. It points to the need of a radical change in
energy consumption habits or a drastic alteration of the world energy matrix.
From 2002 to 2004 the world petroleum consumption rose from 78 to
82 million barrels/day. China accounted for 36% of the increase and the United
States, for 24%. China's high economic growth rates transformed the country
from petroleum exporter to importer and added uncertainty to the market,
similarly to the phenomenon that occurred in Great Britain (MUSSA, 2003).
India is a vulnerable country from the energy standpoint as its growth is
predicated on greater pressure on the current fossil fuel demand. The same
is true for Japan, South Korea and other Southeast Asia countries with high
economic growth potential and dependent on petroleum imports.
In 2004 the energy consumption of rich countries rose to 4.5 tons
equivalent petroleum (tep) per person per day for approximately one billion
citizens. In emerging countries, on the other hand, consumption is .75 tep/
person/day, but for a universe of five billion people (WORLD BANK, 2004).
The cultural and commercial globalization and the assimilation of the customs
of rich countries by emerging countries has resulted in a considerable energy
consumption pressure that is felt more intensely in the emerging countries.
The latter will experience greater population growth during the 21st century,
with the accompanying pressure on the energy demand.
While the consumption of the rich countries has increased by less 100% in
the last 20 years, South Korea, India and China increased their consumption
during the same period by 306%; 240%; and 192%, respectively, and Brazil by
88% (INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, 2004). Any social inclusion effort,
therefore, will give bring about additional pressure on energy consumption.
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