Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply - Embrapa

Energy supply and demand scenarios
Figure 6. Evolution
of world biodiesel
production.
The Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) estimates that the greatest amount of
renewable energy power in the medium term (2025) will derive from the
development of modern biomass (70 to 140 EJ), followed by solar energy
(16-22EJ) and wind energy (7-10EJ). The concept of modern biomass includes
wood in the form of briquettes, carbon and black liquor. In the long term, the
contribution of the renewable sources is estimated at 1,300 EJ/year, half of it
obtained directly from solar energy (2,600 EJ/year).
While the main limitation to the use of solar energy is the development of a
technology that makes obtaining and storing solar energy economically feasible,
it is believed that in the case of agricultural energy there would be a maximum
expansion limit because of the competition of food production for land.
Consequently, it is important to achieve productivity gains not only in food and
fiber agriculture, but also in energy agriculture, so that the dispute over land may
be delayed until other renewable sources of energy have become viable.
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the World
Energy Council have jointly drawn scenarios for the 21st century (Table 6).
Their projections show that only scenarios that include the replacement of
fossil sources of energy with renewable energy (scenarios A3, C1 and C2)
could promote sustainable development with low environmental impact (local
and global) and a more equitable distribution of resources and wealth. To the
contrary, a projection of the current situation and trends would not to lead to
sustainability even with technological advances and moderate economic
growth (scenario B).