Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply - Embrapa

social, economic, and environmental conditioning factors that could speed up or
delay those inexorable changes, as follows.
• Fossil fuel price increase is crucial to hasten the transition and, paradoxically,
extend the duration of the petroleum reserves, making for a less turbulent transition.
In a moderately priced fossil fuel scenario, few renewable sources of energy can
be competitive, with the noteworthy exception of ethanol from sugarcane.
• A decline in the petroleum will affect the production chains dependent on
fossil fuels and induce the replacement of fossil energy with biomass energy. The
speed of substitution will depend on the volume of investments in Research,
Development and Innovation (RD&I).
• The costs of obtaining energy are strongly linked to the local conditions, a
phenomenon that gives rise to competitive differentials between regions, countries
and continents, and only some of those competitive advantages can be overcome.
• The transition will depend on the decisive and continued support of the
respective governments, particularly at the beginning. Government support could
be gradually reduced as goals are met and the process becomes consolidated.
The government's regulating and intervention powers can alter the picture through
various policy instruments, purchasing power, standards, and regulations. The
adaptation of technological resources would also be a strong incentive.
• Intense, guaranteed and continuous support to RD&I programs will act as
a fulcrum in expediting the transition. As innovations increase the efficiency of the
energy transformation processes environmental and economic benefits will
accrue, making renewable sources of energy technically and economically viable
and inducing gains in scale and costs reduction in the long term.
• International and inter-block agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and
the Directive on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable sources of
energy for the internal electricity market of the European Parliament will exert
strong positive influence on the transition.
• Energy cogeneration should become an important factor in the economic
viability of agroenergy sources. The technique is already used in the production of
ethanol and could be extended to other sources, including the generation of energy
from wastes.
• If the expansion of energy agriculture occurs at the expense of food supply
or the environment the strong reaction of society will compromise the changes in
the energy matrix.
• The growing concern over global climate changes will give rise to global
pollution reduction policies and an acknowledgement of the importance of biomass
energy.
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