Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply - Embrapa

More documents

Recommendations

Info

The most promising of all fossil sources of energy is natural gas, because of the possibility of expanding its production and the fact that it is the "cleanest" energy. Nevertheless, natural gas spatial distribution is not homogeneous and demands large investments in infrastructure, complex international agreements and technological innovations in distribution. Furthermore, natural gas is particularly affected by political disputes because it depends on high fixed-cost pipelines that cannot be used for other purposes, tying clients to arbitrary political decisions and contract noncompliance on the part of government leaders and officials. The use of nuclear energy should continue to be limited by safety issues and low acceptance by public opinion, which means that the search for safer technologies must continue. Renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind energy should continue to meet a growing part of the demand, mostly outside the USA at the outset. Environmental and supply security considerations should strengthen the growth of renewable energy sources, including biomass, throughout the world. As a rule, economic growth and environmental protection will drive changes and restrain the growth of the energy sector. If the world decides to maintain the atmospheric carbon concentration at the current 550 ppm level, a good part of the energy will not contain fossil carbon in the future, but fossil fuel exploitation will be much more efficient, whenever used. In the next decades, biomass will become the basis of renewable energy and a valuable input for the chemical industry. The experts believe that energy from biomass will account for the better part of the revenues from international agricultural transactions beginning in 2050. In certain cases, the growth of energy agriculture will also drive food production increases. For example, the expansion of crops such as soybean and sunflower for energy purposes would necessarily signify an increased supply of cakes and bran, one of the raw materials in the food and feed industries. Portability, storage capacity and energy density are important attributes that help consolidate and broaden the share of an energy source in the energy matrix. Ethanol and biodiesel, for example, have portability, which facilitates their transportation to and storage in foreign countries, as opposed to electric power, which has transmission limitations. Biodiesel has the same characteristics of alcohol, but greater density, which reduces the relative transportation and storage costs, as measure by the potential energy per unit of volume or weight. 59
Table 8. OIB Evolution by energy source. Source Projections for Brazil The gross domestic supply (GDS) of energy in Brazil5 in 1999 was 183 Mtep6 . It is estimated that the domestic supply of energy should reach 617 Mtep by 2020 (Table 7), equivalent to a 4.4% p.a. growth during the period 2000-2020. At the end of 1999 the measured petroleum reserves equaled a 20-year production, pointing to depletion by the 2020s. Eighty-eight percent of proven petroleum reserves and 65% of proven natural gas reserves are located at great ocean depths. It is foreseen in this scenario that petroleum and the energy derived from sugarcane should become less important, while natural gas would secure a relevant share of the 2020 Brazilian energy matrix (Table 8). Nevertheless, the predicted cost reductions in biomass energy production (Table 9) could alter this scenario, depending fundamentally on the evolution and outcomes of technological research, development and innovation along the various agroenergy lines of action. Table 7. GDS projections in thermal equivalent values. Year Mtep 2000 260 Petroleum Hydroelectric Natural gas Sugarcane Coal Uranium Other primary sources Firewood – charcoal 2005 300 Source: CGEE – State-of-the-art and technology trends in energy. Source: CGEE – State-of-the-art and technology trends in energy. 60 2000 (%) 47 14 5 12 7 1 2 11 2010 2020 (%) 5 The GDS considers domestic production, imports, exports, stock variation, and unused energy. 6 Calculating the electric power by means of its caloric equivalent: 1 kWh = 860 kcal. 396 2020 617 42 15 16 8 8 1 3 7
Page 1 and 2:
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock
Page 3 and 4:
Translated from the 2nd revised edi
Page 6:
Contents Executive Summary ........
Page 9 and 10: the possibility of earmarking new l
Page 11 and 12: systems and the quality of life. Th
Page 13 and 14: solar radiation and plentiful manpo
Page 15 and 16: Figure 2. Agroenergy production cha
Page 17 and 18: a) Achieving sustainability of the
Page 19 and 20: • Funding sources. The RD&I activ
Page 21 and 22: Cross sectional actions There are d
Page 23 and 24: • Developing technologies to add
Page 25 and 26: of the systems and replacing fossil
Page 27 and 28: • Improving the biodiesel quality
Page 29 and 30: Biogas • Developing and evaluatin
Page 31 and 32: Institutional Partnerships in Agroe
Page 33 and 34: Creation of Embrapa Agroenergy The
Page 35 and 36: International Biofuel Market Ethano
Page 37 and 38: The purpose of these actions is to
Page 39 and 40: Supplying lines of credit adequate
Page 42 and 43: Annex 1 Current Energy Scenario and
Page 44 and 45: Figure1. International price of the
Page 46 and 47: Furthermore, the actual possibiliti
Page 48 and 49: This scenario of increasing scarcit
Page 50 and 51: produce approximately 4,500 EJ2 of
Page 52 and 53: Figure. 4. Area of expansion of ene
Page 54 and 55: The considerable variations in CO c
Page 56 and 57: • The growing energy demand and t
Page 58 and 59: Energy supply and demand scenarios
Page 62: Table 9. Evolution of biomass costs
Page 65 and 66: Agroenergy Production Chains The ag
Page 67 and 68: Alcohol is used mixed with gasoline
Page 69 and 70: Consequently, alcohol fueled more t
Page 71 and 72: in the sugar & alcohol production c
Page 73 and 74: uncertainties still remain: the cor
Page 75 and 76: medium-size farmers by favoring sug
Page 77 and 78: possibility of increasing their ove
Page 79 and 80: in Brazil's share of the internatio
Page 81 and 82: it would be necessary to set up at
Page 83 and 84: those biodiesel plants has been app
Page 85 and 86: Table 11. Characteristics of oleagi
Page 87 and 88: until the 17th year, in a productiv
Page 89 and 90: Using agricultural zoning Embrapa h
Page 91 and 92: A useful reference is an Abiove stu
Page 93 and 94: Production and productivity indicat
Page 95 and 96: the charcoal for the steel industry
Page 97 and 98: The anaerobic digestion process (bi
Page 99 and 100: The average electric power consumpt
Page 101 and 102: sizable proportion of the residue i
Page 103 and 104: Figure 14. Atmospheric carbon dioxi
Page 105 and 106: carbon from a CDM project varies fr
Page 107 and 108: Emission Reduction), a differentiat
Page 109 and 110: • Direct substitution of fossil f
Page 111 and 112:
SCHERER, E. E.; AITA, C.; BALDISSER
Page 113 and 114:
DOHANYOS, M.; KOSOVA, B.; ZABRANSKA
Page 115 and 116:
ROBIN, P.; SOULOUMIAC, D.; OLIVEIRA
Page 117 and 118:
Printing and finishing Embrapa Publ
show all

Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply - Embrapa

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?