Khawaja Zaheer Ahmed - PDMA

SECTION-3
A SCENARIO AVERTED BY DESIGN
41. As noted above also, during first peak, on 30 th July 2010, Tarbela
reservoir received 835,000 cusecs, and its management decided to release only
603,000 cusecs after addition of 6.97 feet against 1 foot permissible SOP at that
point in time. Likewise, Mangla reservoir on Jhelum River absorbed a peak of
344,000 cusecs. These two reservoirs, with a total storage capacity of 12.62
MAF, are normally augmented in stages as per precisely calibrated heights /
volumes as a standard practice. However, the top management engaged itself to
permit substantial deviations to curtail the exceptional build up downstream
Khairabad. Likewise, at Chashma carefully crafted diversions eased the pressure
on the main barrage and delayed the arrivals downstream to some extent. These
eventually helped reduce significantly the combined flood peaks in Indus,
particularly downstream Punjnad that could have been compounded by
conditions unfolding in Indian regulated river catchments. Taking into account the
capacity of existing canal network, it is estimated that in the absence of
absorption at Tarbela reservoir, another 232, 000 cusecs would have joined
481,000 cusecs from Kabul River’s peak to swell the flows at Jinnah Barrage to a
total of 1.3 million cusecs against its designed capacity of 950, 000 cusecs.
42. Similarly water at Chashma and Taunsa barages, even with no addition
from hill torrents/ rains on the way, would have risen to 1.4-1.5 million cusecs
whereas dispatch of 1.8 million cusecs would have reached Guddu, and
marginally lower 1.6 million cusecs at Sukkur on way to Kotri.
43. In the light of what happened in the country during 29 th July through 27 th
August 2010, it is not necessary to map the rest of the consequences for the
entire Indus basin, its irrigated agriculture, the population settlements and rest of
the transport and other physical infrastructure with which designers of the
barrages were aware even in 1930s, when Indus Treaty replacement works like
Tarbela and Mangla, were not even in contemplation. It was flagged in various
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