OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

Spain: Demand, output and prices
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
current prices
billion Ptas
Percentage changes, volume (1995 prices)
Private consumption 48 626.2 4.5 4.7 4.0 2.9 2.9
Government consumption 14 415.3 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.7
Gross fixed capital formation 17 999.2 9.7 8.9 5.9 4.1 3.9
Final domestic demand 81 040.7 5.5 5.4 4.2 3.1 2.9
a
Stockbuilding 180.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Total domestic demand 81 220.9 5.6 5.5 4.1 2.9 2.9
Exports of goods and services 21 989.9 8.3 6.6 10.8 8.2 7.4
Imports of goods and services 21 151.3 13.4 11.9 10.4 8.0 7.3
a
Net exports 838.6 -1.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
GDP at market prices 82 059.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 2.9 2.9
GDPatmarketpricesinbillioneuros 493.2
GDP deflator
Memorandum items
_ 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.0
Private consumption deflator _ 2.0 2.4 3.6 3.2 2.8
Unemployment rate _ 18.8 15.9 14.1 13.2 12.6
b
Household saving ratio _ 12.7 12.0 11.6 12.1 12.3
c
General government financial balance _ -2.6 -1.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1
c
Current account balance _ -0.5 -2.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.2
a) Contributions to changes in real GDP (percentage of real GDP in previous year), actual amount in the first column.
b) As a percentage of disposable income.
c) As a percentage of GDP.
Source: OECD.
ments have only accelerated moderately so far, although many wage contracts incorporate
catch-up clauses linked to headline inflation.
Higher inflation than in the euro area implies lower real interest rates and,
despite the recent recovery of the euro, monetary conditions remain relaxed. In 2000,
the government deficit fell to ¼ per cent of GDP, lower than budgeted, largely due to
stronger than projected receipts from the corporate income tax and from social security
contributions. For 2001, continued restrictions on public employment and wages
have been implemented, although pension payments will grow substantially due to
mandatory catch up clauses for higher-than-expected inflation in 2000. The target of
a balanced budget is likely to be met even if GDP growth is significantly lower than
the official budget projection of 3.6 per cent, 6 due in part to the conservative initial
estimates of public receipts. Overall, this implies a slight tightening of the fiscal
stance.
Output growth is projected to decelerate in 2001 and 2002 to around 3 per cent,
which is close to the economy’s estimated potential growth rate. Household saving
rates are projected to rise somewhat, but private consumption should continue to be
bolstered by further brisk job creation. Investment is likely to weaken in 2001,
although only moderately as interest rates remain low, profitability favourable and
pressures on capacity still high. Lower internal demand should induce a deceleration
6. In April the official projection for GDP growth was revised down to 3.2 per cent in 2001.
Developments in individual OECD countries - 127
The policy stance has tightened
somewhat, but remains relaxed
Output growth is projected to
slow down to close to potential
© OECD 2001