OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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152 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Figure IV.2. Public pension spending in 2000 and changes 2000-2050 Levels in per cent of GDP and changes in percentage points Level in 2000 Change between 2000 and 2050 Panel A. Mainly earnings related pension schemes Italy France1 France1 France1 Germany Poland Austria Spain Sweden Belgium Finland Portugal Czech Republic Hungary Norway United States Korea 0 5 10 15 -5 0 5 10 Panel B. Mainly flat-rate pension schemes Japan Denmark Netherlands Canada New Zealand United Kingdom Australia 0 5 10 15 -5 0 5 10 1. For France, estimations refer to the period from 2000 to 2040. Source: OECD.
Old-age pension spending trends to 2050 Projections based on assumptions of unchanged policy – though taking into account legislated but-not-yet implemented reforms – suggest that old-age pension spending will rise on average by around 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP in the period to 2050 (Table IV.3, Panel B), but with considerable cross-country variation. Pension spending is projected to fall as a share of GDP over the period for Poland, where shifts are taking place towards private pension arrangements, as well as for the United Kingdom, and to remain broadly stable for Italy, partly reflecting recent reforms. In contrast, increases of more than 4 percentage points of GDP are projected for ten countries (including Portugal) and for seven among these, it will be 5 percentage points or more. Spending relative to GDP starts to rise quickly in the latter part of the current decade, but then slows from around 2035-40, with declines in a few countries. 9 Indeed, significant differences between the change to the peak and the change over the entire period are projected by Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. To illustrate the forces driving the change in the share of spending in GDP over the period 2000-2050, Table IV.4 breaks it into four factors: 10 – A dependency or population-ageing effect, reflecting changes in the ratio of those aged 55+ to the population aged 20 to 64. 11 – An employment effect, driven by changes in the ratio of the population aged 20 to 64 to employment. – The benefit effect, related to changes in the average pension benefit relative to GDP per worker. – An eligibility effect, corresponding to changes in the share of those receiving benefits in the 55+ age group. 12 The results show the increase in spending associated with the change in each one of these components taken independently. The last two factors are measures of the changing generosity of pension systems. While the results of such decompositions need to be treated with caution, they suggest that increased ageing/dependency is the key factor driving pension spending over the period (Table IV.4, third column). The average impact of ageing taken alone is around 5 percentage points of GDP. The ageing-induced increases are highest in a 9. Projected effects of reforms in a few countries (e.g. Italy and Sweden) contribute to this result. 10. This is based on the following multiplicative formula: PENS POP ( 55 + ) POP ( 20 − 64 ) AVBEN REC = x x x , where GDP POP ( 20 − 64 ) EMPL AVPDTY POP ( 55 + ) PENS/GDP is the ratio of old-age pension spending to GDP, POP(55+) is the population 55 and over, POP(20-64) is the population 20-64, EMPL is employment, AVBEN is total old-age pension spending divided by the number of recipients, AVPDTY is labour productivity and REC is the number of recipients. The change in spending associated with each component is roughly equal to the ratio of old-age pensions to GDP in 2000 multiplied by the growth rate of the component over the period. For further information see Dang et al. (forthcoming). 11. This takes into account the fact that a considerable number of older workers retire before 65. 12. For France, Japan, Sweden and the United Kingdom, it was necessary to assume that the number of beneficiaries equalled the non-active share of the population aged 55+. This approximation for the eligibility ratio leads to an overestimation of the number of beneficiaries. Correspondingly, with average benefits defined as total pension expenditure in any year divided by the number of beneficiaries, this procedure leads to an underestimation in the average benefit (calculated as the residual) for these countries. Fiscal implications of ageing: projections of age-related spending - 153 Old-age pension spending rises by 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP to 2050, but by more than this in many countries This spending increase is mainly driven by population ageing… © OECD 2001
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OECD Economic Outlook ECONOMICS «
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OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 69 JUNE 2001
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FOREWORD This edition of the OECD E
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Editorial .......
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Table of contents - vii I.5. Profit
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EDITORIAL Economic growth in the OE
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ingness to liquidate insolvent bank
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2 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Weakne
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4 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Easier
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6 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I.
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8 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... wh
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10 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Curre
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12 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Decem
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14 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The s
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16 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Per c
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20 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … b
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24 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Falli
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26 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Unite
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28 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
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30 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I
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34 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The f
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36 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
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38 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 More
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40 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... w
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42 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … w
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II. DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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the long-run tax cut will be introd
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Japan: Employment, income and infla
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Japan: External indicators 1998 199
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Germany Developments in individual
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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France Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Italy Developments in individual OE
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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United Kingdom Developments in indi
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Canada Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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86 Australia Developments in indivi
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cially after the RBA’s recent int
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Austria: Demand, output and prices
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Belgium Developments in individual
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contribution of net exports to grow
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Czech Republic: Demand, output and
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Denmark Developments in individual
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hold incomes recover. Although expo
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Finland: Demand, output and prices
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Greece: Demand, output and prices 1
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Hungary: Demand, output and prices
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Iceland: Demand, output and prices
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Page 125 and 126: New Zealand: Demand, output and pri
Page 127 and 128: Norway Developments in individual O
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Page 131 and 132: Poland: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 133 and 134: Portugal Developments in individual
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Page 137 and 138: Slovak Republic: Demand, output and
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Page 141 and 142: Sweden Developments in individual O
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Page 145 and 146: Switzerland: Demand, output and pri
Page 147 and 148: Turkey: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 149 and 150: III. DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED NON-M
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Page 157 and 158: IV. FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING:
Page 159 and 160: Third, in any case, projections ove
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Page 177 and 178: period (Table IV.6, Panel B). This
Page 179 and 180: BIBLIOGRAPHY Fiscal implications of
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may play an important role in the a
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Encouraging environmen
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212 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prod
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214 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The
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216 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Many
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218 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Entr
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220 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box
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222 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 BIBL
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224 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 List
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226 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Coun
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Annex Tables Statistical Annex - 22
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 11. Output
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 13. Unit l
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 17. Oil an
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 Annex
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 21. Unempl
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 23. Labour
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 27. Gross
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 29 . Gener
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 31. Genera
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 39. Effect
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 41. Import
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 43. Import
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 47. Shares
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 49. Non-fa
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 51. Curren
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 53. Struct
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Annex Table 54. (cont'd) Semiannual
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Annex Table 56. Contributions to ch
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Annex Table 57. Household wealth an
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Annex Table 61. Monetary and credit
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Annex Table 63. Geographical struct
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OTHER OECD STATISTICAL SERIES ON DI
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For customers in Austria, Germany a
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OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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