OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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General assessment of the macroeconomic situation - 3 Index % balance 1995 = 100 Per cent 58 30 130 2 56 20 125 0 54 10 120 -2 52 0 115 -4 50 -10 110 -6 48 -20 105 -8 46 -30 100 -10 44 United States (left scale) -40 95 United States (left scale) -12 42 Japan (right scale) Euro area (right scale) -50 90 Japan -14 40 1998 99 2000 01 -60 85 1998 99 2000 01 -16 1 Index % balance 1995 = 100 Per cent 58 30 130 2 56 20 125 0 54 10 120 -2 52 0 115 -4 50 -10 110 -6 48 -20 105 -8 46 -30 100 -10 44 United States (left scale) -40 95 United States (left scale) -12 42 Japan (right scale) Euro area (right scale) -50 90 Japan (right scale) Euro area, % balance (right scale) -14 40 1998 99 2000 01 -60 85 1998 99 2000 01 -16 1 Index % balance 1995 = 100 Per cent 58 30 130 2 56 20 125 0 54 10 120 -2 52 0 115 -4 50 -10 110 -6 48 -20 105 -8 46 -30 100 -10 44 United States (left scale) -40 95 United States (left scale) -12 42 Japan (right scale) Euro area (right scale) -50 90 Japan (right scale) Euro area, % balance (right scale) -14 40 1998 99 2000 01 -60 85 1998 99 2000 01 -16 1 (right scale) Euro area, % balance (right scale) Per cent Per cent 12 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 Per cent Per cent 12 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 Business confidence United States 1998 99 2000 01 Euro area 1998 99 2000 01 1. 50 percentage points less than actual result. 2. Smoothed curve, 6-month rate of change (annual rate). Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators. Figure I.2. Confidence and leading indicators A. Confidence indicators B. Leading indicators OECD composite leading indicator2 Industrial production2 OECD composite leading indicator2 Industrial production2 OECD composite leading indicator2 Industrial production2 Consumer confidence Japan -12 1998 99 2000 01 Total OECD -12 1998 99 2000 01 8 4 0 -4 -8 8 4 0 -4 -8 © OECD 2001
4 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Easier monetary conditions, low long-term interest rates… Table I.2. World trade summary Percentage changes form previous period second half of 2000 after rising for the previous two years and, more recently, business confidence has weakened. In Europe, household confidence is holding up at historically high levels, as employment prospects remain good in many countries. But firms in several countries, notably Germany and to a lesser extent France, have been revising down their production expectations. A number of forces at work are supportive 1999 2000 2001 2002 Merchandise trade volume World trade a 6.2 13.1 7.2 8.0 of which: Manufactures 7.1 14.2 7.3 8.3 OECD exports 5.4 12.0 6.5 7.9 OECD imports 8.8 12.7 6.7 7.4 Non-OECD exports 6.7 15.1 8.0 8.8 Non-OECD imports Memorandum items 0.1 15.8 9.8 9.6 Intra-OECD tradeb 7.8 11.6 6.0 7.3 OECD exports to non-OECD 1.8 16.0 9.5 9.3 OECD imports from non-OECD Trade prices 7.5 14.3 7.7 8.5 OECD exportsc –2.5 –3.7 –1.2 0.8 OECD importsc –2.8 –1.4 –0.8 0.5 OECD terms-of-trade with rest of the worldd –0.9 –6.9 0.2 0.9 Note: Regional aggregates include intra-regional trade. a) Growth rates of the arithmetic average of world import volumes and world export volumes. b) Arithmetic average of the intra-OECD import and export volumes implied by the total OECD trade volumes and the estimated trade flows between the OECD and the non-OECD areas based on the 1995 structure of trade values. c) Average unit values in local currency. d) The OECD terms of trade are calculated as the ratio of OECD export to OECD import prices, excluding intra- OECD trade. Source: OECD. Two “counter-shocks” may operate to limit the global slowdown of economic activity. First, monetary policy has been substantially eased in the United States and more modestly so in a number of other member countries, including Australia, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom. A limited further monetary easing is built into the OECD projections (Box I.1). The easing of monetary policy that has taken place reinforced the downward trend in long-term interest rates in the United States that started around the middle of last year, although this has recently begun to reverse (Figure I.3). Ten-year government bond yields are now back just above the 5 per cent level observed two years ago and they may edge upward further as the economy recovers. Long-term rates also declined in the euro area over the past year, but more modestly, and since late March yields have risen again. However, over the projection period long rates are on average expected to remain broadly stable. In Japan, longterm bond yields started falling late last year as the weakness of the economy became evident, until they approached their all-time low near 1 per cent. Since late March they have rebounded to around 1½ per cent, where they are projected to remain, partly in response to concerns that substantial increases in government funding might be necessary (see below).
Page 1 and 2: OECD Economic Outlook ECONOMICS «
Page 3 and 4: OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 69 JUNE 2001
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD This edition of the OECD E
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF CONTENTS Editorial .......
Page 9 and 10: Table of contents - vii I.5. Profit
Page 11 and 12: EDITORIAL Economic growth in the OE
Page 13 and 14: ingness to liquidate insolvent bank
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Page 19 and 20: 6 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I.
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Page 23 and 24: 10 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Curre
Page 25 and 26: 12 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Decem
Page 27 and 28: 14 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The s
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Page 33 and 34: 20 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … b
Page 37 and 38: 24 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Falli
Page 39 and 40: 26 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Unite
Page 41 and 42: 28 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
Page 43 and 44: 30 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I
Page 47 and 48: 34 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The f
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Page 53 and 54: 40 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... w
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Page 59 and 60: II. DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD
Page 61 and 62: 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
Page 63 and 64: the long-run tax cut will be introd
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Japan: External indicators 1998 199
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Germany Developments in individual
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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France Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Italy Developments in individual OE
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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United Kingdom Developments in indi
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Canada Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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86 Australia Developments in indivi
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cially after the RBA’s recent int
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Austria: Demand, output and prices
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Belgium Developments in individual
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contribution of net exports to grow
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Czech Republic: Demand, output and
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Denmark Developments in individual
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hold incomes recover. Although expo
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Finland: Demand, output and prices
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Greece: Demand, output and prices 1
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Hungary: Demand, output and prices
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Iceland: Demand, output and prices
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Ireland: Demand, output and prices
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Korea Developments in individual OE
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Luxembourg Developments in individu
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Mexico Developments in individual O
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Netherlands Developments in individ
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age this year, mainly reflecting ta
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New Zealand: Demand, output and pri
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Norway Developments in individual O
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There are substantial risks to the
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Poland: Demand, output and prices 1
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Portugal Developments in individual
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especially as the deficit has been
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Slovak Republic: Demand, output and
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Spain: Demand, output and prices 19
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Sweden Developments in individual O
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Despite recent indicators suggestin
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Switzerland: Demand, output and pri
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Turkey: Demand, output and prices 1
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III. DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED NON-M
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Substantial progress has been made
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with a 7 per cent increase in urban
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the current account should remain q
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IV. FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING:
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Third, in any case, projections ove
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The baseline projections for public
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Old-age pension spending Levels of
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Old-age pension spending trends to
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Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
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ment is to be maintained for all. F
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Table IV.5. Changes in spending, re
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The projected deterioration in the
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Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
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period (Table IV.6, Panel B). This
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Fiscal implications of
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170 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Tax
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172 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Tabl
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174 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Cons
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176 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 …
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180 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prog
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182 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Ther
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184 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 coun
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VI. ENCOURAGING ENVIRONMENTALLY SUS
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Tax base Table VI.1. Use of economi
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A complication with permit trading
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A double dividend? In practice, new
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Environmental policies that are eff
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eing hit with the full tax. This av
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US$/cubic metre 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
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the economic effects of environment
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Cost-benefit analysis Encouraging e
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may play an important role in the a
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Encouraging environmen
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212 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prod
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214 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The
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216 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Many
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218 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Entr
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220 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box
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222 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 BIBL
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224 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 List
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226 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Coun
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Annex Tables Statistical Annex - 22
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 11. Output
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 13. Unit l
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 17. Oil an
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 Annex
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 21. Unempl
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 23. Labour
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 27. Gross
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 29 . Gener
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 31. Genera
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 39. Effect
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 41. Import
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 43. Import
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 47. Shares
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 49. Non-fa
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 51. Curren
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 53. Struct
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Annex Table 54. (cont'd) Semiannual
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Annex Table 56. Contributions to ch
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Annex Table 57. Household wealth an
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Annex Table 61. Monetary and credit
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Annex Table 63. Geographical struct
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OTHER OECD STATISTICAL SERIES ON DI
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For customers in Austria, Germany a
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