OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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Potential GDP growth Table I.17. Growth in potential GDP and its components Potential labor productivity growth (output per employee) Annual averages, percentage points Potential employment growth For the OECD area as a whole, the external balance remains in small deficit (1¼ per cent of GDP) over the medium term. Moreover, in the absence of major changes in potential growth rates or trade openness and at relatively constant real exchange rates, there is little overall adjustment in the current external imbalances between regions. For the euro area, the current external surplus increases to around ¾ per cent of GDP in 2006. For the United States, the current-account deficit widens marginally to 4¼ per cent of GDP, partly reflecting an increasing outflow of investment income as net foreign debt continues to accumulate. Japan’s external surplus stays at around 3 per cent of GDP. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation - 45 Potential labor force participation rate Components of potential employment a Working age population NAIRU 1995-2002 2003-2006 1995-2002 2003-2006 1995-2002 2003-2006 1995-2002 2003-2006 1995-2002 2003-2006 1995-2002 2003-2006 Australia 3.8 3.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 Austria 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Belgium 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Canada 3.0 3.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 Denmark 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.1 0.3 0.1 –0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 Finland 3.3 3.8 2.8 3.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 France 2.1 2.6 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 Germany 1.8 2.3 1.5 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 –0.1 0.0 0.1 Greece 3.0 3.8 2.2 3.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 –0.1 0.0 Iceland 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 –0.1 0.0 Ireland 7.7 8.1 3.7 4.7 3.8 3.3 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 Italy 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 –0.2 –0.3 0.0 0.2 Japan 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 –0.3 0.5 0.0 –0.1 –0.4 –0.2 0.0 Netherlands 3.2 2.8 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 New Zealand 2.8 3.0 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 Norway b 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Spain 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.3 Sweden 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.4 –0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Switzerland 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.5 –0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 United Kingdom 2.4 2.5 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 United States 3.6 3.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 Euro area 2.2 2.6 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total OECD 2.7 2.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 a) Percentage point contributions to potential employment growth. b) Mainland Norway. Source: OECD. … and current account imbalances in the three major regions are projected to persist over the medium-term horizon © OECD 2001
II. DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD COUNTRIES United States The long-anticipated slowdown in the US economy finally began in the second half of 2000, but it has been unexpectedly sharp, driven by an abrupt change in sentiment in financial markets. The full magnitude of the slowdown may be seen only in the first half of 2001 as inventories adjust to slower consumption and investment falls. But with an easier stance of economic policy, a recovery seems likely to take hold in the second half of the year. Overall, growth of around 1¾ per cent this year and about 3 per cent next year is projected. Unemployment should rise, helping the core rate of inflation to remain stable. The current-account deficit, though, is unlikely to decline much. Monetary policy is now supporting demand, but with possible adverse effects on consumption from the large fall in share prices the recovery could be delayed, justifying a further modest cut in interest rates. The details of a substantial package of tax reductions including cuts for the immediate future are now being decided in Congress, but nonetheless the federal government may become a net creditor by the end of this decade. Such a performance still leaves a need to reform Social Security and the medical assistance programme for the elderly. The economy slowed abruptly in the second half of 2000. The deceleration appears to be related to the marked change in perceptions about the future performance of corporate earnings that was diffused throughout the economy by a substantial fall in the stock market, in particular in the technology sector. Companies cut back the growth of investment markedly. The high-tech sector was hit by a deceleration of outlays on computers, while the traditional sector of the economy was badly affected by a fall in vehicle purchases. Consumer confidence also weakened sharply leading to a marked slowing in the growth of consumption, with car purchases, in particular, declining. This United States A marked change in business sentiment triggered the slowdown in growth… The decline in equity markets has gathered pace1 pace1 pace1 Monetary policy has eased Percentage change at annual rate Real short-term interest rates2 rates2 rates2 Per cent 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Per cent 5 4 3 2 1 0 -60 1973 1973 1973 77 81 85 89 93 97 2001 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 1. The chart measures the change in the semi-annual average of the Standard and Poors 500 index from the previous half-year at an annual rate. The figure for the first half of 2001 assumes that the stock market remains unchanged from 20 April. 2. Short-term interest rates less core inflation. Sources: Bloomberg and OECD. © OECD 2001
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OECD Economic Outlook ECONOMICS «
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OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 69 JUNE 2001
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FOREWORD This edition of the OECD E
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF CONTENTS Editorial .......
Page 9 and 10: Table of contents - vii I.5. Profit
Page 11 and 12: EDITORIAL Economic growth in the OE
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Page 61 and 62: 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Page 69 and 70: Germany Developments in individual
Page 73 and 74: France Developments in individual O
Page 77 and 78: Italy Developments in individual OE
Page 81 and 82: United Kingdom Developments in indi
Page 85 and 86: Canada Developments in individual O
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Page 93 and 94: Austria: Demand, output and prices
Page 95 and 96: Belgium Developments in individual
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Page 99 and 100: Czech Republic: Demand, output and
Page 101 and 102: Denmark Developments in individual
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Page 105 and 106: Finland: Demand, output and prices
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Hungary: Demand, output and prices
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Iceland: Demand, output and prices
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Ireland: Demand, output and prices
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Korea Developments in individual OE
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Luxembourg Developments in individu
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Mexico Developments in individual O
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Netherlands Developments in individ
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age this year, mainly reflecting ta
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New Zealand: Demand, output and pri
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Norway Developments in individual O
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There are substantial risks to the
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Poland: Demand, output and prices 1
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Portugal Developments in individual
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especially as the deficit has been
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Slovak Republic: Demand, output and
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Spain: Demand, output and prices 19
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Sweden Developments in individual O
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Despite recent indicators suggestin
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Switzerland: Demand, output and pri
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Turkey: Demand, output and prices 1
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III. DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED NON-M
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Substantial progress has been made
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with a 7 per cent increase in urban
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the current account should remain q
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IV. FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING:
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Third, in any case, projections ove
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The baseline projections for public
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Old-age pension spending Levels of
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Old-age pension spending trends to
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Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
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ment is to be maintained for all. F
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Table IV.5. Changes in spending, re
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The projected deterioration in the
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Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
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period (Table IV.6, Panel B). This
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Fiscal implications of
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170 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Tax
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172 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Tabl
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174 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Cons
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176 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 …
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180 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prog
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182 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Ther
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184 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 coun
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VI. ENCOURAGING ENVIRONMENTALLY SUS
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Tax base Table VI.1. Use of economi
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A complication with permit trading
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A double dividend? In practice, new
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Environmental policies that are eff
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eing hit with the full tax. This av
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US$/cubic metre 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
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the economic effects of environment
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Cost-benefit analysis Encouraging e
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may play an important role in the a
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Encouraging environmen
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212 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prod
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214 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The
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216 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Many
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218 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Entr
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220 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box
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222 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 BIBL
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224 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 List
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226 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Coun
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Annex Tables Statistical Annex - 22
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 11. Output
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 13. Unit l
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 17. Oil an
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 Annex
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 21. Unempl
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 23. Labour
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 27. Gross
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 29 . Gener
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 31. Genera
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 39. Effect
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 41. Import
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 43. Import
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 47. Shares
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 49. Non-fa
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 51. Curren
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 53. Struct
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Annex Table 54. (cont'd) Semiannual
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Annex Table 56. Contributions to ch
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Annex Table 57. Household wealth an
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Annex Table 61. Monetary and credit
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Annex Table 63. Geographical struct
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OTHER OECD STATISTICAL SERIES ON DI
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For customers in Austria, Germany a
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