OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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Table IV.3. Age-related spending (Levels in per cent of GDP, changes in percentage points) Total age-related spending Old-age pension “Early retirement”programmes Health care and long-term care level 2000 Child/Family benefits and education Panel A Panel B Panel C Panel D Panel E change 2000- peak a change 2000-50 level 2000 change2000 -peak b change 2000-50 level 2000 change 2000-peak c change 2000-50 level 2000 change 2000-peak d change 2000-50 level 2000 change 2000-peak e Australia 16.7 5.6 5.6 3.0 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.2 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.1 0.0 –2.3 Austria f 10.4 4.6 2.3 9.5 4.3 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Belgium 22.1 5.4 5.2 8.8 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 6.2 3.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 –1.3 Canada 17.9 8.7 8.7 5.1 5.8 5.8 .. .. .. 6.3 4.2 4.2 6.4 0.0 –1.3 Czech Republic 23.1 6.9 6.9 7.8 6.8 6.8 1.8 –0.7 –0.7 7.5 2.0 2.0 6.0 .. –1.2 Denmark g 29.3 7.3 5.7 6.1 3.6 2.7 4.0 0.8 0.2 6.6 2.7 2.7 6.3 0.3 0.0 Finland 19.4 8.5 8.5 8.1 4.8 4.8 3.1 –0.1 –0.1 8.1 3.8 3.8 .. .. .. France h .. .. .. 12.1 4.0 3.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Germany .. .. .. 11.8 5.0 5.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hungary i 7.1 1.6 1.6 6.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. Italy .. .. .. 14.2 1.7 –0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Japan 13.7 3.0 3.0 7.9 1.0 0.6 .. .. .. 5.8 2.4 2.4 .. .. .. Korea 3.1 8.5 8.5 2.1 8.0 8.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 .. .. .. Netherlandsj 19.1 10.1 9.9 5.2 5.3 4.8 1.2 0.4 0.4 7.2 4.8 4.8 5.4 0.1 0.0 New Zealand 18.7 8.4 8.4 4.8 5.7 5.7 .. .. .. 6.7 4.0 4.0 7.2 0.0 –1.3 Norway 17.9 13.7 13.4 4.9 8.2 8.0 2.4 1.6 1.6 5.2 3.5 3.2 5.5 0.5 0.5 Polandi 12.2 –2.6 –2.6 10.8 –2.5 –2.5 1.4 0.2 –0.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. Spain .. .. .. 9.4 8.0 8.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sweden 29.0 3.4 3.2 9.2 2.2 1.6 1.9 –0.2 –0.4 8.1 3.2 3.2 9.8 0.0 –1.2 United Kingdom 15.6 0.8 0.2 4.3 0.0 –0.7 .. .. .. 5.6 1.8 1.7 5.7 0.0 –0.9 United States Average of countries 11.2 5.5 5.5 4.4 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6 4.4 4.4 3.9 0.0 –1.0 abovek Average of countries which provide all or nearly all 16.9 5.9 5.5 7.4 3.8 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.2 6.0 3.3 3.3 6.2 .. –0.9 spending components 18.7 7.2 6.9 Portugall 15.6 6.6 4.3 8.0 4.5 4.5 2.5 0.4 –0.4 .. .. .. .. a) The peak values are in 2050 except for Denmark (2030), Sweden and the United Kingdom (2035), and Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands and Korea (2040). b) The peak values are in 2050 except for Japan (2015), the United Kingdom and Italy (2030), the United States, Sweden, Austria, Denmark and France (2035) and the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium (2040). c) The peak values are in 2050 except for Belgium and Denmark (2025), Finland (2010), the Netherlands (2020), Poland (2035) and Sweden (2005). For Czech Republic the highest level is in 2000. d) The peak values are in 2050 except for Denmark and Korea (2035), Norway and the United Kingdom (2040). e) 0.0 indicates the highest level is in 2000. The peak values are in 2035 for Denmark and in 2040 for Norway and the Netherlands. f) Total pension spending includes other age-related spending which does not fall within the definition in Panels B to E. This represented 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2000 and rises by 0.1 percentage point in the period to 2050. g) Total includes other age related spending not classifyable under the other headings. This represents 6.3 per cent of GDP in 2000 and increases by 0.2 percentage points from 2000 to 2050. h) For France, the latest available year is 2040. i) Total includes old-age pension spending and “early retirement” programmes only. j) “Early retirement” programmes only include spending on persons 55+. k) OECD average excludes countries where information is not available and Portugal which is less comparable than other countries. l) Portugal provided an estimate for total age-related spending but did not provide expenditure for all of the spending components. Source: OECD. change 2000-50 154 - OECD Economic Outlook 69
Fiscal implications of ageing: projections of age-related spending - 155 Table IV.4. Decomposition of changes in old-age pension spending: 2000-2050 a Total old-age pension spending, level in 2000 (Level in per cent of GDP, changes in percentage points) Total old-age pension spending, change from 2000 to 2050 Old-age dependency ratio number of European countries which have fully developed and generous earningsrelated pension schemes and/or rapid ageing (e.g. Austria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal and Spain). Smaller increases are found in countries with limited ageing and low initial spending levels (e.g. Denmark, Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States). Almost all country projections have increasing employment ratios as a result of assumed higher female participation rates, lower unemployment or increased average retirement ages. This boosts output and reduces the cost of pension systems taken as a share of GDP. This effect is stronger in countries with currently low female participation rates and/or high unemployment rates at the beginning of the period (especially Austria, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Poland as well as Spain, where unemployment is assumed to fall to the same levels as in the early 1970s). As a general rule, the effects of the two aspects of system generosity reflect maturing pension systems, changes in behaviour and the impact of reforms. 13 Most Contributions of : Employment ratio Benefit ratio b Eligibility ratio Australia 3.0 1.6 2.5 –0.1 –0.5 –0.2 Austria 9.5 2.2 7.6 –1.9 –1.1 –2.4 Belgium 8.8 3.3 4.7 –0.7 –1.6 1.0 Canada 5.1 5.8 5.1 0.0 –0.6 1.3 Czech Republic 7.8 6.8 8.2 –0.8 –0.1 –0.1 Denmark 6.1 2.7 2.7 –0.3 –1.5 1.7 Finland 8.1 4.8 5.2 –0.1 –0.2 0.0 France c 12.1 3.8 7.6 –0.5 –3.4 0.4 Germany 11.8 5.0 6.4 –0.7 –2.7 2.1 Hungary 6.0 1.2 2.9 –1.0 –0.3 –0.4 Italy d 14.2 –0.3 10.1 –3.2 –5.5 –1.5 Japan d 7.9 0.6 5.1 –1.2 –3.9 0.9 Korea 2.1 8.0 4.8 –1.0 0.2 5.0 Netherlands 5.2 4.8 3.8 –0.5 0.2 1.4 New Zealand 4.8 5.7 4.7 –0.1 1.0 0.0 Norway 4.9 8.0 3.0 0.1 3.9 1.2 Poland 10.8 –2.5 7.3 –1.3 –5.9 –2.1 Spain 9.4 8.0 8.6 –2.6 0.0 2.0 Sweden d 9.2 1.6 3.9 –0.5 –2.1 0.4 United Kingdom d 4.3 –0.7 1.7 0.1 –2.5 0.1 United States 4.4 1.8 2.4 –0.1 –0.2 –0.3 Average of countries above e 7.4 3.4 5.2 –0.8 –1.3 0.5 Portugal 8.0 4.5 6.1 –1.0 –2.7 1.1 a) See Dang et al. (forthcoming) for methodology and detailed information on the time profile. Columns do not add up because linear approximations are used. b) The associated percent declines in average benefits relative to average productivity over the period 2000 to 2050 is particularly important in the following countries: Belgium (–16), Denmark (–11), France (–21), Germany (–20), Italy (–30), Japan (–38), Poland (–51), Sweden (–22) and the United Kingdom (–47) per cent. All other countries are under 10 per cent except Norway where the average benefit is projected to rise by 53.6 per cent. c) For France, data are available for 2040. d) For these countries information on the number of pension recipients and average pensions was not available. These variables were estimated by the OECD except for Italy, where data refer to the number of pensions and not the number of pensioners. e) Average excludes countries where national information is not available and Portugal which is less comparable than other countries. Source: OECD. 13. A recent review of reforms can be found in OECD (2000). … offset by the effects of assumed higher participation rates and lower unemployment on GDP… © OECD 2001
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OECD Economic Outlook ECONOMICS «
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OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 69 JUNE 2001
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FOREWORD This edition of the OECD E
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Editorial .......
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Table of contents - vii I.5. Profit
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EDITORIAL Economic growth in the OE
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ingness to liquidate insolvent bank
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2 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Weakne
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4 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Easier
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6 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I.
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8 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... wh
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10 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Curre
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12 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Decem
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14 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The s
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16 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Per c
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20 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … b
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24 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Falli
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26 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Unite
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28 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
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30 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I
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34 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The f
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36 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
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38 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 More
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40 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... w
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42 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … w
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II. DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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the long-run tax cut will be introd
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Japan: Employment, income and infla
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Japan: External indicators 1998 199
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Germany Developments in individual
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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France Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Italy Developments in individual OE
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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United Kingdom Developments in indi
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Canada Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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86 Australia Developments in indivi
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cially after the RBA’s recent int
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Austria: Demand, output and prices
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Belgium Developments in individual
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contribution of net exports to grow
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Czech Republic: Demand, output and
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Denmark Developments in individual
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hold incomes recover. Although expo
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Finland: Demand, output and prices
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Greece: Demand, output and prices 1
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Hungary: Demand, output and prices
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Iceland: Demand, output and prices
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Ireland: Demand, output and prices
Page 115 and 116: Korea Developments in individual OE
Page 117 and 118: Luxembourg Developments in individu
Page 119 and 120: Mexico Developments in individual O
Page 121 and 122: Netherlands Developments in individ
Page 123 and 124: age this year, mainly reflecting ta
Page 125 and 126: New Zealand: Demand, output and pri
Page 127 and 128: Norway Developments in individual O
Page 129 and 130: There are substantial risks to the
Page 131 and 132: Poland: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 133 and 134: Portugal Developments in individual
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Page 137 and 138: Slovak Republic: Demand, output and
Page 139 and 140: Spain: Demand, output and prices 19
Page 141 and 142: Sweden Developments in individual O
Page 143 and 144: Despite recent indicators suggestin
Page 145 and 146: Switzerland: Demand, output and pri
Page 147 and 148: Turkey: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 149 and 150: III. DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED NON-M
Page 151 and 152: Substantial progress has been made
Page 153 and 154: with a 7 per cent increase in urban
Page 155 and 156: the current account should remain q
Page 157 and 158: IV. FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING:
Page 159 and 160: Third, in any case, projections ove
Page 161 and 162: The baseline projections for public
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Page 173 and 174: The projected deterioration in the
Page 175 and 176: Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
Page 177 and 178: period (Table IV.6, Panel B). This
Page 179 and 180: BIBLIOGRAPHY Fiscal implications of
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Page 203 and 204: A double dividend? In practice, new
Page 205 and 206: Environmental policies that are eff
Page 207 and 208: eing hit with the full tax. This av
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Page 211 and 212: the economic effects of environment
Page 213 and 214: Cost-benefit analysis Encouraging e
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Encouraging environmen
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210 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 …
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212 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prod
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214 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The
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216 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Many
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218 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Entr
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220 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box
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222 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 BIBL
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224 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 List
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226 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Coun
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Annex Tables Statistical Annex - 22
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 11. Output
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 13. Unit l
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 17. Oil an
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 Annex
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 21. Unempl
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 23. Labour
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 27. Gross
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 29 . Gener
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 31. Genera
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 39. Effect
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 41. Import
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 43. Import
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 47. Shares
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 49. Non-fa
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 51. Curren
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 53. Struct
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Annex Table 54. (cont'd) Semiannual
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Annex Table 56. Contributions to ch
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Annex Table 57. Household wealth an
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Annex Table 61. Monetary and credit
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Annex Table 63. Geographical struct
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OTHER OECD STATISTICAL SERIES ON DI
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For customers in Austria, Germany a
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