OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

I. GENERAL ASSESSMENT
OF THE MACROECONOMIC SITUATION
Overview of the current situation and prospects
Global growth prospects have deteriorated
Global economic activity has been weakening since the autumn of 2000. Led by
steep slowdowns in the auto and information and communications technology sectors,
growth stalled in the United States late last year with significant spill-over
effects in neighbouring Canada and Mexico. Other important trading partners, notably
in Asia, have also been adversely affected. In particular, this loss of dynamism has
reinforced the weakness that has become evident in the Japanese economy, further
affecting the global picture negatively. The expansion in Europe also slowed in the
second half of 2000, and continued signs of weakness have been apparent in the current
year. Overall, the world economy has been expanding at a much slower pace in
early 2001 than expected just six months ago, leading to a marked downward adjustment
of near term growth expectations among private forecasters (Figure I.1) as well
as the OECD.
The forces putting downward pressure on growth are projected to dissipate during
the current half-year and, except in Japan, a moderate recovery to take hold later this
year. In this scenario, the US slowdown, though sharp, is relatively short-lived. In the
European Union (EU) growth is seen as less affected, stabilising marginally above its
potential rate. Japan, however, may be facing a more protracted period of weakness.
This projection, which is subject to clear downside risks, would imply OECD areawide
growth of just 2 per cent in 2001 (half the growth rate achieved last year),
climbing to 2¾ per cent growth of GDP in 2002 (Table I.1).
Per cent
4
3
2
1
0
Figure I.1. Downgraded growth expectations for 20011 Figure I.1. Downgraded growth expectations for 20011 Figure I.1. Downgraded growth expectations for 20011 October November December January February March
2000 2001
1. Survey of private bank forecasts.
Source: The Economist, various issues.
United States
Euro area
Japan
The world economy
is cooling down
© OECD 2001