OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

58 - OECD Economic Outlook 69
Employment growth has
continued but is slowing
Employment growth slowed with greater part-time employment accounting for a
large part of the remaining increase. Unit labour costs were roughly constant in 2000,
owing to subdued wage rises, higher productivity growth, and reductions in social
security contribution rates, which were largely financed by higher energy taxes.
Core inflation drifted up Core inflation increased, and the headline inflation rate (consumer price index)
continued drifting up, to some 2½ per cent in the first quarter of 2001. Increases in
energy taxes, which became effective in January of this year, contributed to the rise
in consumer prices. But with energy prices declining, inflation is likely to decrease in
the course of the year. Almost the entire yield curve has shifted downwards in recent
months, and real interest rates remain low by historical standards.
After a pause in 2001 fiscal
consolidation will resume
in 2002
Thousands % balance
4 600
10
4 400
4 200
4 000
3 800
3 600
Germany: Employment, income and inflation
Percentage changes
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Employment
a
Unemployment rate
0.9
8.9
1.1
8.3
1.5
7.8
0.9
7.3
0.8
6.8
Compensation of employees 1.9 2.4 3.0 2.7 3.1
Unit labour cost -0.1 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.6
Household disposable income 2.8 2.6 2.9 4.5 3.5
GDP deflator 1.1 0.9 -0.4 1.1 1.4
Private consumption deflator
a) As a percentage of labour force.
Source: OECD.
1.1 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.5
The general government balance swung into a surplus of 1.5 per cent of GDP
in 2000, owing to one-off receipts from the auctioning of universal mobile telephone
service (UMTS) licenses amounting to 2.5 per cent of GDP. Net of these
receipts, the deficit improved by 0.4 per cent of GDP to 1 per cent of GDP while
the structural (cyclically-adjusted) balance remained roughly unchanged. In 2001
general government finances will be expansionary due to the revenues foregone
Unemployment1 Unemployment1 Unemployment1 has recently levelled off Consumer confidence is volatile
1996 97 98 99 2000 01 1996 97 98 99 2000 01
1. Seasonally adjusted, registered unemployment.
Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank and OECD.
Germany
0
-10
-20
Consumer confidence (left scale)
Long-term average of consumer confidence (left scale)
Retail sales (right scale)
1995 = 100
108
106
104
102
100
98
96