OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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130 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … while monetary conditions remain supportive of growth GDP is projected to expand slightly above potential rates Sweden: Demand, output and prices 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 current prices billion SKr Percentage changes, volume (1995 prices) Private consumption 922.0 2.7 3.8 4.1 2.5 2.9 Government consumption 484.0 3.2 1.7 -1.7 1.0 2.0 Gross fixed capital formation 276.8 8.5 8.1 4.5 6.1 6.4 Final domestic demand 1 682.9 3.8 4.0 2.6 2.8 3.3 a Stockbuilding 7.6 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 Total domestic demand 1 690.5 4.3 3.4 3.2 2.5 3.3 Exports of goods and services 778.2 8.4 5.9 9.8 6.5 7.3 Imports of goods and services 644.9 11.2 4.3 9.7 6.3 8.3 a Net exports 133.3 -0.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 GDP at market prices 1 823.8 3.6 4.1 3.6 2.8 3.0 GDP deflator Memorandum items _ 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.2 Private consumption deflator _ 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.6 2.2 Unemployment rate b _ 6.5 5.6 4.7 4.1 3.9 c Household saving ratio _ 2.4 2.0 2.0 4.0 4.2 d,e General government financial balance _ 1.7 1.8 4.1 3.6 3.4 d Current account balance _ 2.9 3.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 Note: National accounts are based on chain-linked data. This introduces a discrepancy in the identity between real demand components and the GDP. See "Sources and Methods" for further details. a) Contributions to changes in real GDP (percentage of real GDP in previous year), actual amount in the first column. b) Based on monthly Labour Force Surveys. c) As a percentage of disposable income. d) As a percentage of GDP. e) Maastricht definition. Source: OECD. in 2001, with further income tax cuts amounting to some 1¼ per cent of GDP, and the Spring Budget implies some further easing in 2002, even without additional tax cuts, which remain high on the agenda. Nevertheless, cyclically-adjusted net lending is projected to show a robust surplus of around 3 per cent of GDP both this year and next, and gross public debt should continue to decline rapidly. While the Spring Budget projects that total expenditures will remain just below their ceiling, the absence of a contingency margin implies that any unexpected pick-up in spending must be fully offset by discretionary savings. The monetary policy stance remains relatively easy. The Riksbank raised the repo rate by ¼ percentage point in December 2000, but at 4 per cent, the rate is still well below that of the euro area. The nominal effective exchange rate has weakened since the middle of 2000, and it recently reached its lowest level in five years. Thus, monetary conditions are supportive of robust growth. With inflation projected to edge up, policy-controlled interest rates should not be lowered from the current level. Real GDP is projected to expand by 2¾ per cent in 2001 and by 3 per cent in 2002. This is slightly higher than estimated potential growth, which could reach 2¾ per cent per year if labour-market programmes are scaled back to make room for continued robust employment growth. The latter is projected to increase by an average of more than 1 per cent annually so that unemployment could fall to around 3½ per cent by late 2002. Inflation is projected to increase from less than 1 per cent in 2000 to around 2¼ per cent in 2002.
Despite recent indicators suggesting weakness, the balance of risks is neutral. Reduced buoyancy could come from slower export market growth or from further deterioration in consumer confidence. On the other hand, the projected increase in the household savings rate may be excessive given the underlying supportive macroeconomic environment. Upside risks to inflation could emerge if macroeconomic policy is eased or if labour-market programmes are not scaled back. On the other hand, a marked currency appreciation, as assumed by both the Riksbank and the government, could help to contain inflation. Developments in individual OECD countries - 131 The balance of risks to output looks neutral © OECD 2001
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OECD Economic Outlook ECONOMICS «
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OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 69 JUNE 2001
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FOREWORD This edition of the OECD E
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Editorial .......
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Table of contents - vii I.5. Profit
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EDITORIAL Economic growth in the OE
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ingness to liquidate insolvent bank
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2 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Weakne
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4 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Easier
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6 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I.
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8 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... wh
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10 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Curre
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12 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Decem
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14 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The s
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16 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Per c
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20 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … b
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24 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Falli
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26 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Unite
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28 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
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30 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box I
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34 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The f
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36 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Monet
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38 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 More
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40 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 ... w
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42 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 … w
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II. DEVELOPMENTS IN INDIVIDUAL OECD
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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the long-run tax cut will be introd
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Japan: Employment, income and infla
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Japan: External indicators 1998 199
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Germany Developments in individual
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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France Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Italy Developments in individual OE
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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United Kingdom Developments in indi
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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Canada Developments in individual O
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Household
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86 Australia Developments in indivi
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Page 93 and 94: Austria: Demand, output and prices
Page 95 and 96: Belgium Developments in individual
Page 97 and 98: contribution of net exports to grow
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Page 101 and 102: Denmark Developments in individual
Page 103 and 104: hold incomes recover. Although expo
Page 105 and 106: Finland: Demand, output and prices
Page 107 and 108: Greece: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 109 and 110: Hungary: Demand, output and prices
Page 111 and 112: Iceland: Demand, output and prices
Page 113 and 114: Ireland: Demand, output and prices
Page 115 and 116: Korea Developments in individual OE
Page 117 and 118: Luxembourg Developments in individu
Page 119 and 120: Mexico Developments in individual O
Page 121 and 122: Netherlands Developments in individ
Page 123 and 124: age this year, mainly reflecting ta
Page 125 and 126: New Zealand: Demand, output and pri
Page 127 and 128: Norway Developments in individual O
Page 129 and 130: There are substantial risks to the
Page 131 and 132: Poland: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 133 and 134: Portugal Developments in individual
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Page 137 and 138: Slovak Republic: Demand, output and
Page 139 and 140: Spain: Demand, output and prices 19
Page 141: Sweden Developments in individual O
Page 145 and 146: Switzerland: Demand, output and pri
Page 147 and 148: Turkey: Demand, output and prices 1
Page 149 and 150: III. DEVELOPMENTS IN SELECTED NON-M
Page 151 and 152: Substantial progress has been made
Page 153 and 154: with a 7 per cent increase in urban
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Page 157 and 158: IV. FISCAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING:
Page 159 and 160: Third, in any case, projections ove
Page 161 and 162: The baseline projections for public
Page 163 and 164: Old-age pension spending Levels of
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Page 167 and 168: Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
Page 169 and 170: ment is to be maintained for all. F
Page 171 and 172: Table IV.5. Changes in spending, re
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Page 175 and 176: Fiscal implications of ageing: proj
Page 177 and 178: period (Table IV.6, Panel B). This
Page 179 and 180: BIBLIOGRAPHY Fiscal implications of
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Page 183 and 184: 172 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Tabl
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182 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Ther
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184 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 coun
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VI. ENCOURAGING ENVIRONMENTALLY SUS
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Tax base Table VI.1. Use of economi
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A complication with permit trading
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A double dividend? In practice, new
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Environmental policies that are eff
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eing hit with the full tax. This av
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US$/cubic metre 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
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the economic effects of environment
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Cost-benefit analysis Encouraging e
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may play an important role in the a
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BIBLIOGRAPHY Encouraging environmen
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210 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 …
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212 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Prod
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214 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 The
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216 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Many
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218 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Entr
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220 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Box
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222 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 BIBL
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224 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 List
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226 - OECD Economic Outlook 69 Coun
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Annex Tables Statistical Annex - 22
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 11. Output
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 13. Unit l
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 1984 1
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 17. Oil an
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© OECD 2001 Average 1973-83 Annex
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 21. Unempl
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 23. Labour
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 27. Gross
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 29 . Gener
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 31. Genera
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 39. Effect
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 41. Import
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 43. Import
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© OECD 2001 1983 1984 1985 1986 An
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 47. Shares
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 49. Non-fa
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 51. Curren
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© OECD 2001 Annex Table 53. Struct
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Annex Table 54. (cont'd) Semiannual
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Annex Table 56. Contributions to ch
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Annex Table 57. Household wealth an
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Annex Table 61. Monetary and credit
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Annex Table 63. Geographical struct
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OTHER OECD STATISTICAL SERIES ON DI
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For customers in Austria, Germany a
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OECD Economic Outlook 69 - Biblioteca Hegoa

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