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an epidemiological study of listeriosis in dairy cattle

an epidemiological study of listeriosis in dairy cattle

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Listeriosis <strong>in</strong> others<br />

beef <strong>cattle</strong><br />

sheep<br />

4. 2. 1. Model Build<strong>in</strong>g:<br />

Vacc<strong>in</strong>e<br />

Leptospirosis<br />

Lung worm<br />

mole hills<br />

<strong>in</strong> grass silage field<br />

controll<strong>in</strong>g moles<br />

It was not possible to fit all the selected variables <strong>in</strong> a s<strong>in</strong>gle model. This caused<br />

us to develop first a prelim<strong>in</strong>ary model that <strong>in</strong>cluded all the major variables like herd<br />

size, types <strong>of</strong> forages fed to <strong>an</strong>imals, hous<strong>in</strong>g, dung disposal variables <strong>an</strong>d general<br />

m<strong>an</strong>agement as b<strong>in</strong>ary variables. The effects <strong>of</strong> more qualitative aspects <strong>of</strong> each<br />

variable e.g. method <strong>of</strong> feed<strong>in</strong>g forage, silage <strong>an</strong>alysis that were statistically signific<strong>an</strong>t<br />

<strong>in</strong> the prelim<strong>in</strong>ary model were then <strong>in</strong>vestigated <strong>in</strong> detail by <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g more expl<strong>an</strong>atory<br />

variables <strong>in</strong> other models. F<strong>in</strong>ally variables which reduced the statistical power <strong>of</strong> the<br />

model because <strong>of</strong> large numbers <strong>of</strong> miss<strong>in</strong>g values, e.g. herd size (84 observations), or<br />

the variables which had strong effect on the model, e.g. cases <strong>in</strong> beef <strong>cattle</strong> (reported by<br />

14 farms), were excluded from the data set.<br />

4. 3. Results:<br />

(i) Prelim<strong>in</strong>ary Model:<br />

Us<strong>in</strong>g the overall cases reported <strong>in</strong> <strong>dairy</strong> <strong>cattle</strong> as <strong>an</strong> outcome variable a model<br />

was developed to <strong>in</strong>clude the variables listed below, namely feed<strong>in</strong>g forages, hous<strong>in</strong>g,<br />

dung disposal, general m<strong>an</strong>agement. Grass silage feed<strong>in</strong>g was not <strong>in</strong>cluded at this stage<br />

because those who did not feed grass silage did not report <strong>an</strong>y cases <strong>of</strong> Listeriosis.<br />

The list <strong>of</strong> variables used <strong>in</strong> the prelim<strong>in</strong>ary model is as follows:

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