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Yellowstone's Northern Range - Greater Yellowstone Science ...

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THE NORTHERN RANGE<br />

20<br />

Figure 2.4 Tracking<br />

of the Palmer<br />

Drought severity<br />

Index (a commonly<br />

lIsed indicator of fire<br />

risk) over the past<br />

century in<br />

<strong>Yellowstone</strong> shows a<br />

gradual drying trend,<br />

which may have a<br />

variety of effects on<br />

vegetation<br />

communities, as<br />

discussed in this<br />

chapter. Note<br />

especially the extreme<br />

and historically<br />

unprecedented<br />

dryness of 1988, when<br />

<strong>Yellowstone</strong><br />

experienced fires on a<br />

scale apparently not<br />

equalled since about<br />

1700. Courtesy of<br />

Grant Meyer,<br />

Middlebury College.<br />

<strong>Yellowstone</strong> Palmer Drought Severity Index Time Series<br />

-7<br />

- o "Large ll fire years<br />

-5 -<br />

>-< -<br />

U)<br />

5: -3 - - ....<br />

III<br />

-1<br />

§ - i~<br />

-<br />

;::i ,<br />

U) 1<br />

-<br />

-<br />

3 -<br />

- ~\<br />

5 -<br />

1890 1910 1930<br />

I<br />

I<br />

,'''<br />

MY'<br />

~,<br />

1988.1<br />

(;)<br />

tf<br />

\<br />

•<br />

I<br />

I<br />

1950 1970 1990<br />

range in Lamar Valley vary widely; from 39°F<br />

(3.9°C) at the Lamar <strong>Range</strong>r Station, to 40SF<br />

(4.7°C) at Pebble Creek, to 48.1 OF (8.9°C) at the<br />

east end of Lamar Canyon (Friedman and Norton<br />

1981).<br />

It is a matter of some interest whether or not<br />

the changes in climate experienced by <strong>Yellowstone</strong><br />

during the 1900s are in part the result of human<br />

influence on the atmosphere. Romme and Turner<br />

(1991) have proposed a series of alternative<br />

scenarios that may arise in the greater <strong>Yellowstone</strong><br />

ecosystem as human-caused global climate change<br />

progresses in the future. These scenarios feature<br />

significant changes in vegetation communities,<br />

with consequences ranging from minor to grave for<br />

various mammal species. For example, a slight<br />

warming and drying of the park's climate will<br />

almost eliminate whitebark pine, an important food<br />

species for grizzly bears and other animals. Yet<br />

another reason to continue the present investigations<br />

of the northern range is the opportunity this<br />

research provides to establish baseline information<br />

against which to measure such changes.<br />

CLIMATE: RESEARCH<br />

RECOMMENDATIONS<br />

Over the past 20 years much of greater<br />

<strong>Yellowstone</strong> has been subjected to intense scrutiny<br />

using palynological methods to reconstruct<br />

paleoclimates. Particularly well-studied is the area<br />

from central <strong>Yellowstone</strong> south through the Grand<br />

Tetons. Research needs to be expanded to the north<br />

and east of <strong>Yellowstone</strong>, especially to understand<br />

more about the very important prehistoric variations<br />

in the Great Plains monsoonal pattern, and<br />

how it has affected the northern range in the past.<br />

A lake on the northern range has been identified as<br />

one of the very few "varved lakes" known in North<br />

America. Research on this lake could yield<br />

patterns in annual weather and vegetation, at the<br />

very least, back to the Pleistocene. Daily weather<br />

records from many stations in the park are archived<br />

in original hard copy at a facility on the east coast.<br />

These records need to be accessioned and computerized<br />

so that the weather during the historic period<br />

can be better understood.

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