the development of russian military policy and finland

4
DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY POTENTIAL
4.1 Potential, not Intentions, Determines the Development Needs
A
t the Russia-NATO Council meeting in Bucharest in April 2008,
President Vladimir Putin referred to Otto von Bismarck’s well-known
view that capability, not intentions, matters most. 101 This is the classical
starting point of defence planning. Building defence capability is a longterm
process. Political intentions, however, may change overnight. Therefore
it is prudent to analyze a country’s military potential rather than its current
political situation.
Prime Minister Putin laid out the future of the Armed Forces in December
2009 as follows:
The Russian Armed Forces must keep up with modern challenges in order to reliably
ensure national security. The military reform is crucial to making the military leaner
and meaner, enabling it to deal with any conflicts that could arise. New types of arms,
new equipment and new methods of waging war are necessary for that. 102
It is evident that Russia needs in the western direction small, efficient and
flexible strike units in a high state of readiness, and which can be quickly reinforced
when necessary. “The nature of threats has become such that operations
on a regional scale can start suddenly”, the Chief of the General Staff,
Army General Nikolai Makarov said on November 17, 2011. 103 Behind this
assessment it is possible to discern the thoughts of one of Russia’s most prestigious
military thinkers, Army General (ret.) Makhmut Gareev, president of
the Academy of War Sciences. He strongly doubts the credibility of tactical
nuclear weapons as general-purpose weapons in local conflicts. Mindful of
101 President of Russia, 2008a. According to President Vladimir Putin, “You know, I have a
great interest in and love for European history, including German history. Bismarck was an important
German and European political leader. He said that in such matters, what is important is not the intention
but the capability.” See also RIA Novosti, 31 May 2008, “Russia opposes NATO expansion
in principle – PM Putin.”, According to Putin, “As Bismarck said long ago, what really
counts is potentials rather than goodwill intentions or statements”. During an interview for
Le Monde in late May 2008 Putin said that, “And all we see is that military infrastructure is
getting closer and closer to our borders. Why? Nobody threatens each other anymore".
102
RIA Novosti, 3 December 2009, “Putin Reiterates Need for Military Reform to Ensure
Security [http://en.rian.ru/russia/20091203/157086584.html].
103 Tikhonov et al., 2011.