the development of russian military policy and finland

Concluding Remarks · 63
teresting to see how the planned Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2013 exercise will
be executed in September 2013, announced as a CSTO exercise. 226
A general perception is that there is no immediate threat in view now. 227
However, no one can predict reliably what the world will look like ten or
twenty years from now, the timeframe of today’s strategic decision-making.
Finland’s influence on world affairs is modest, at best. Capabilities, not intentions
are significant.
The defence can be considered credible, when the aggressor realizes that defeating
it will be achieved only at an unacceptably high cost. The defender
himself has to be confident of his capabilities. In broader terms, national defence
requires the comprehensive military and societal capability to endure.
The importance of good strategic early warning should not be underestimated.
A sufficiently large military reserve is a signal of the people’s will to defend the
homeland. Above all, it also indicates that the defence cannot be paralyzed by
a surprise attack or by threat thereof, and that resistance will continue even
after enemy invasion. The preventive value of a large reserve is significant.
226 РИА Новости, 28 December 2012, “Российско-белорусские стратегические учения
пройдут в 2013 году” [http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20121224/915972564.html].
President Putin: "It is important to enhance the interaction with allies, particularly those in the CSTO.
Such tasks will be solved in the framework of the planned Russian-Belarusian military exercises West-
2013.”
227 As this report deals primarily with military capability developments, the authors leave it
to others, mainly the decision-makers, to assess the threat.