the development of russian military policy and finland

CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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1 INTRODUCTION 1
2 GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES IN EUROPE AFTER THE
END OF THE COLD WAR 5
2.1 Western Threat Views and the Development of
Western Forces 6
2.2 The Change of Attitudes in Russian Foreign Policy 8
2.3 The Return of Russia’s Geopolitical Way of Thinking 11
3 AN ESTIMATE OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY-POLITICAL
DEVELOPMENT 19
3.1 Military Threats and Military Doctrine 21
3.2 Shift of the Centre of Gravity in the Western
Direction 24
4 DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY POTENTIAL 29
4.1 Potential, not Intentions, Determines the Development
Needs 29
4.2 The Development of Russia’s Military Potential and
Armaments 32
5 CHARACTERISTICS OF RUSSIA’S USE OF FORCE 41
5.1 Russia Cannot Tolerate Threats Arising from the
Direction of Small Neighbouring Countries 44
5.2 Basic Readiness and Its Enhancement 46
6 CONCLUSIONS FROM THE FINLAND’S
POINT OF VIEW 51
6.1 Alliances and Proclamations of Solidarity 51
6.2 What Kind of Defence Forces does Finland Need? 55
7 CONCLUDING REMARKS 59
Annex 1: Russia’s Military Expenditure 65
Annex 2: The Development of the Russian Armed Forces 67
Annex 3: The Development of Russian Military Potential Nearby
Finland 83
Annex 4: Experiences and Conclusions of the Russian Military
Exercises since 2009 93