Innovation in Global Power - Parsons Brinckerhoff

Planning and the Role of Regulators
diesel prices will increase by around NZ $0.10/litre. Wholesale
electricity prices will rise by nearly 20 percent (Figure 3).
This increase can be expected to flow through to nearly 10
percent retail electricity price increases.
Figure 3: Forward price estimate based on $20/tonne CO 2
in 2007 escalated @ 7.5%/yr – incurred from 2010.
NZ $ / MWh
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2008/
2009
2009/
2010
2010/
2011
2011/
2012
2012/
2013
Year
2013/
2014
2014/
2015
2015/
2016
2016/
2017
95th Percentile 75th Percentile Average 25th Percentile 5th Percentile
2017/
2018
An ETS scheme will not have much direct impact on the
wider energy demand in New Zealand because transport fuel
use and electricity demand are not particularly price sensitive.
The recent dramatic oil price rises have demonstrated the
weakness of marginal price signals to reduce CO2 emissions
from transport. In addition, major industrial users can expect
to get generous free NZU allocations initially.
Extensive renewable generation development will require
major investments in the transmission grid investment over
and above that already contemplated to deal with organic
load and generation portfolio growth. This need results from
the thermal generation close to demand being replaced by
distributed renewable generation located more distant from
demand. This major additional investment will result in
increased transmission charges to consumers, who will receive
no additional commercial benefit. This additional transmission
investment will result in an increase to the cost of delivered
electricity to all consumers on top of the 10 percent increase
expected from the CO2 charge effects on generation costs.
http://www.pbworld.com/news_events/publications/network/
PB is Supporting New Zealand’s Becoming a
World Leader
PB is involved extensively in the New Zealand energy sector,
having played a role in:
• The development of wind farms; geothermal power
stations and steam fields, and hydropower stations
• The planning, design and implementation of transmission
system
• Areas of sustainable development, energy efficiency and
Clean Development Mechanism projects.
Current activities in the sector include assisting Contact Energy
Limited develop a large geothermal power station, and serving
as project manager for the development and implementation
of a biodiesel manufacturing facility based on canola seed
feedstock for Biodiesel New Zealand Limited. We have also
been invited by Crest Energy Limited to propose what skills
we can bring to bear on the development of its 200 MW
tidal power scheme after they secure the environmental
approvals.
Related Web Sites:
•New Zealand Energy Strategy: http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/
ContentTopicSummary_19431. aspx
•http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/
•http://www.biodiesel-nz.co.nz/index.cfm/1,118,0,44,html
•http://www.contactenergy.co.nz/web/view?page=/contentiw/pages/
ourprojects/temihi&vert=pr
•http://www.crest-energy.com/
•http://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/OurProjects/
Nick Barneveld has worked in business development, corporate strategic energy planning, power station commercial assessment, technical and commercial due diligence,
financial modelling including development of technical and commercial assumptions, power station engineering and operations and maintenance and functions. His’ recent
activities include assignments relating to technical due diligence for a successful A$7.4 billion competitive bid for Australian infrastructure assets, the development of a
US$4 billion coal to liquids plant in New Zealand, due diligence of a new high moisture content low rank coal gasification technology, exploitation of coal bed methane, an
underground coal gasification development programme, and the development of New Zealand’s first commercial-scale biodiesel manufacturing plant.
PB Network #68 / August 2008 88