Risk-Based Inspection

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12.4 Sensitivity Analysis 敏感性分析 Understanding the value of each variable and how it influences the risk calculation is key to identifying which input variables deserve closer scrutiny versus other variables which may not have significant effects. This is more important when performing risk analyses that are more detailed and quantitative in nature. Sensitivity analysis typically involves reviewing some or all input variables to the risk calculation to determine the overall influence on the resultant risk value. Once this analysis has been performed, the user can see which input variables significantly influence the risk value. Those key input variables deserve the most focus or attention. 分析与筛选 , 显著影响风险的输入变量值 . 这些关键输入变量作为最值得关注或焦点 . API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang
It often is worthwhile to gather additional information on such variables. Typically, the preliminary estimates of probability and consequence may be too conservative or too pessimistic; therefore, the information gathering performed after the sensitivity analysis should be focused on developing more certainty for the key input variables. This process should ultimately lead to a re-evaluation of the key input variables. As such, the quality and accuracy of the risk analysis should improve. This is an important part of the data validation phase of risk assessment. 为了避免过于开放或保守的风险分析结构 , 对关键变量值的真确性质是非常重要的 . 对这些变量值进行敏感度分析能更加保证风险数据的质量与准确度 . API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang
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Risk-Based Inspection Downstream Se
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基于风险的检验 - 下
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang R
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Foreword
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API 580 旨在补充 API 510, AP
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5 Basic Risk Assessment Concepts 5.
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10 Assessing Probability of Failure
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13 Risk Management with Inspection
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15 Reassessment and Updating RBI As
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Figures 1 Management of Risk Using
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Introduction This recommended pract
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RBI is synonymous 同义 with •
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Contents 1 Purpose 1.1 General 1.2
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It provides guidance to (1) owners,
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RBI 过程预期成果 : The e
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The RBI process 能够产生的
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任何其他风险缓解活
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RBI 过程预期成果 (1) 所
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RBI 过程预期成果 (2) 每
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RBI 过程预期成果 3) 任
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1.2 RBI Benefits and Limitations
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RBI Benefits and Limitations
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a) an acceptance/understanding of t
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a) an acceptance/understanding of t
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The RBI plans also identify equipme
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RBI is based on sound, proven risk
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inadequate designs or faulty equipm
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not effectively executing the plans
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lack of sound engineering or operat
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RBI should serve to guide the direc
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proven inspection technologies that
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综合管理工具配合其
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Contents 2 Scope 2.1 Industry Scope
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this RP is specifically targeted at
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2.2 Flexibility in Application 灵
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2.3 Mechanical Integrity Focused Th
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RBI 补足 HAZOP/PHA/RCM 作为
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2.4 Equipment Covered 覆盖设
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Process Piping- Pipe and piping com
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Storage Tanks- Atmospheric and pres
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Boilers and Heaters - Pressurized c
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2.5 Equipment Not Covered 不覆
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang
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虽然主要观众为负责
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3 Normative References API 580 Char
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Societies/Organizations: 1. ASME In
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• AICHE 2, Dow’s Fire and Explo
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Contents 4 Terms, Definitions, Acro
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1.2 RBI Benefits and Limitations
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4.1.4 components 组成整件
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4.1.9 damage (or deterioration) mod
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4.1.14 event 事件 Occurrence of
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang i
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4.1.18 Failure ……………… 1
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For RBI, the failure of concern is
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4.1.22 hazard and operability study
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4.1.26 management of change MOC 变
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4.1.29 process unit 工艺设备
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Reformer PFD Facility →Process un
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Facility →Process units → Syste
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4.1.30 qualitative risk analysis
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定性风险分析的结果
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4.1.31 quantitative risk analysis Q
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang Q
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4.1.35 Risk 风险 - 事件的
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4.1.37 risk analysis 风险分
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concerns of stakeholders? API 580 C
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concerns of stakeholders? Himba wom
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4.1.41 risk communication 风险
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isk criteria 风险标准 Terms
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4.1.48 risk mitigation 风险缓
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4.1.53 System 系统 A collection
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4.1.55 toxic chemical 有毒化
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4.2 Acronyms and Abbreviations ACC
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5 Basic Risk Assessment Concepts AP
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5.1 What is Risk? 什么是风
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For example, in driving a car, peop
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Risk is the combination of the prob
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5.3 The Evolution of Inspection Int
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With advances in inspection approac
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RBI represents the next generation
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5.4 Overview of Risk Analysis 风
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e) determine credible failure mode
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Data → Damage Mechanism→ Damage
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A point is reached where additional
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typical inspection program Upper cu
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RBI Inspection lower risks can be a
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残余风险 API 580 Charlie Cho
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang d
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang d
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5.6 Relative Risk vs Absolute Risk
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API 580 RBI RBI is focused on a sys
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang t
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6.1 Key Elements of an RBI Program
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6.2 Consequence and Probability for
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Combining the probability of one or
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Traditionally, organizations have f
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang K
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The RBI procedure can be applied qu
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所选择的方法可以在
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Qualitative Approach-This approach
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QRA uses logic models depicting com
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QRA logic models generally consist
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The traditional QRA is generally co
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The QRA typically involves a much m
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Typically, most of the data used in
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When performing risk analysis acros
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6.4 Precision vs Accuracy 精度
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Risk presented as a precise numeric
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Therefore, it may be beneficial to
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Quantitative analysis uses logic mo
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Process variables that should be co
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Since risk is dynamic (i.e. changes
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Those changes might include such th
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The objective of RBI is to direct m
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The POF due to such deterioration i
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For those equipment items where ins
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6.6.3 Evaluation and Fitness-For-Se
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6.6.4 Other Risk Management 其他
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The relationship between RBI and se
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6.7.2 PHA A Process Hazard Analysis
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6.7.3 PSM Process Safety Management
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6.7.4 Equipment Reliability 设备
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Those benefits can include: a) appl
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7 Planning the RBI Assessment 评
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7.1 Getting Started 开始 This se
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At the conclusion of the planning p
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7.2 Establishing Objectives and Goa
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7.2.3 Define Risk Criteria 定义
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7.2.6 Meet Safety and Environmental
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e) removal of unnecessary insulatio
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The RBI assessment may identify ris
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New Project Risk Assessment API 580
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7.2.9 Facilities End of Life Strate
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Typically, RBI is done on multiple
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Facility-Plant API 580 Charlie Chon
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process units API 580 Charlie Chong
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System - CS Vessel 230psig, 230ºC
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7.3.3 Facilities Screening 设备
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石油和天然气加工和
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石化和化工厂 API 580 Cha
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液化天然气工厂 API 580
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facility level API 580 Charlie Chon
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设施水平需要回答的
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(3) 是否有足够的资源
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang h
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7.3.4 Process Units Screening 工
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang C
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Process Units API 580 Charlie Chong
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以设备细分为系统 - C
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以冶金细分为系统 - C
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Catalytic Reforming 催化转化
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When a process unit is identified f
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Selection of equipment types to be
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7.3.7 Utilities, Emergency and Off-
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The operating conditions, including
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7.4.3 Normal, Upset, and Cyclic Ope
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The following data should be provid
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Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang
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7.4.4 Operating Time Period 操作
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A strategy should be developed, mat
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7.6 Estimating Resources and Time R
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8 Data and Information Collection f
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Contents 8 Data and Information Col
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收集的数据作为评估
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Documentation of unique equipment a
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• 不同的评估方法需
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8.2.1 Data Needs for Qualitative RB
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通常 , 使用范围广泛
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8.2.3 Data Needs for Semi-quantitat
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Another potential source of scatter
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8.4 Codes and Standards—National
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Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang
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8.5 Sources of Site-specific Data a
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Potential sources of specific infor
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d) MOC records; 设备变动管
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seismic activity records API 580 Ch
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9 Damage Mechanisms and Failure Mod
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9.1.1 Identification of Damage Mech
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) Considering the materials, method
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d) It is often possible to have two
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Understanding equipment operation a
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9.3 Failure Modes 失效模式 O
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9.4 Accumulated Damage 累积损
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c) a ranking of credible failure mo
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang 1
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10.1 Introduction to Probability An
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The probability of specific consequ
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The probability of specific consequ
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Guidance on determining the probabi
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weather extremes API 580 Charlie Ch
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operator error API 580 Charlie Chon
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sabotage API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fio
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sabotage http://en.wikipedia.org/wi
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For a qualitative analysis, the POF
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Two examples of this are listed in
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10.3 Types of Probability Analysis
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Another approach is used when inacc
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10.4 Determination of POF 确定
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Analyzing the effect of in-service
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Probability of Failure POF Damage T
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For many damage mechanisms, the rat
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equipment complexity, 设备的
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process and metallurgical variation
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inaccessibility for inspection, 难
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the inspector’s expertise 检查
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恶化率信息的来源包
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f) the phase of the fluid (liquid,
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10.4.3 Determine Failure Mode 确
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a) pitting generally leads to small
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a) pitting generally leads to small
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) stress corrosion cracking can dev
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c) metallurgical deterioration and
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d) general thinning from corrosion
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d) general thinning from corrosion
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang e
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f) Deterioration rate under some ex
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10.4.5 Calculate the POF by Deterio
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11 Assessing Consequences of Failur
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11.1 Introduction to Consequence An
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对环境的影响 API 580 Cha
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安全和健康的影响 /
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POF Managed by Inspector & Inspecti
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More or less complex and detailed m
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11.1.3 Other Functional Failures Al
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These other functional failures are
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11.2 Types of Consequence Analysis
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11.2.3 Quantitative Consequences An
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• failure mode and resulting leak
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评估故障结果的一些
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11.3.3 Cost 费用 , 价值 Cost
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The above list is reasonably compre
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Cost generally requires fairly deta
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11.3.4 Affected Area 受影响
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11.3.5 Environmental Damage 环境
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11.3.6 Categorizing Safety, Health,
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11.3.7 Other Considerations 其他
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In some cases, the volume released
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The cost of the lost fluid may be c
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11.5.6 Production (Business Interru
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The flammable events consequence is
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Boiling liquid expanding vapor expl
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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosio
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此风险评估通常着重
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11.5.4 Releases of Other Hazardous
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Liquid releases may result in conta
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The consequences of environmental d
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泄漏位置地形和可达
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泄漏位置地形和可达
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The fine component cost will depend
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The selection of a specific method
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang D
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Page 675 and 676: 11.6.3 Factors for More Rigorous Me
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Page 679 and 680: 12 Risk Determination, Assessment a
Page 681 and 682: 12.1 Purpose 目的 This section d
Page 683 and 684: For example, after a loss of contai
Page 685 and 686: Personnel inexperienced in risk ass
Page 689 and 690: Figure 5—Determination of COF
Page 691 and 692: EXAMPLE: An equipment item containi
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Page 695 and 696: Typically, there will be other cred
Page 697 and 698: If probability and consequence are
Page 699 and 700: 12.3 Risk Management Decisions and
Page 701 and 702: 12.3.2 Using Risk Assessment in Ins
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Page 707 and 708: 在缺乏可信的输入值
Page 709 and 710: 12.6 Risk Presentation 风险表
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Page 715 and 716: 12.6.3 Risk Plots 风险绘图 W
Page 717 and 718: Line of constant risk - acceptable
Page 719 and 720: Risk may be described in terms of d
Page 721 and 722: 12.7 Establishing Acceptable Risk T
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Page 727 and 728: 12.8 Risk Management 风险管
Page 729 and 730: 13 Risk Management with Inspection
Page 731 and 732: 13.1 Managing Risk by Reducing Unce
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Page 741 and 742: http://www.sv.vt.edu/classes/MSE209
Page 743 and 744: Hence the need for a establishing a
Page 745 and 746: 13.2 Identifying Risk Management Op
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accessibility to expected damage ar
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang I
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In cases such as these, an alternat
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检验工艺的限制或可
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检验工艺的限制或可
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Inspection is only effective if the
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) Coverage - Different zones or are
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d) Procedures and Practices - Inspe
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The user can adjust these parameter
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POF 为风险关键因素 :
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检验如何降低检验费
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Unacceptable imperfections UW-51 (b
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What were the differences in inspec
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http://www.dnv.com/services/softwar
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14 Other Risk Mitigation Activities
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14.1 General 总则 As described i
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1. 14.2 Equipment Replacement and R
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Other Risk Mitigation Activities
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14.4 Equipment Modification, Redesi
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14.6 Emergency Depressurizing/De-in
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14.7 Modify Process 工艺修改
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14.8 Establish IOWs 建立操作
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14.10 Water Spray/Deluge 水喷 /
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14.13 Others 其他 a) spill detec
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15 Reassessment and Updating RBI As
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15.1 RBI Reassessments 重估 RBI
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It is important that the facility h
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Sections 15.2.2 through 15.2.5 prov
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang I
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很多损伤机理带来的
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Process changes API 580 Charlie Cho
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Process changes API 580 Charlie Cho
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API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang t
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RBI Assessment Premise Change Chang
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http://www.stoprust.com/23-risk-bas
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15.3.1 After Significant Changes
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15.3.2 After a Set Time Period 时
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15.3.4 Before and After Maintenance
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16 Roles, Responsibilities, Trainin
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16.2 Team Members, Roles, and Respo
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a) formation of the team and verify
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团队领导 API 580 Charlie Cho
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16.2.3 Equipment Inspector or Inspe
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腐蚀专家职责 : • 评
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16.2.5 Process Specialist 工艺
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16.2.6 Operations and Maintenance P
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16.2.7 Management 管理层 Manag
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16.2.8 Risk Analyst 风险分析
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16.3.2 Other Team Members 其他
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培训和资格 API 580 Charlie
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17 RBI Documentation and Record kee
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f) assumptions made during the asse
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17.2 RBI Methodology 方法学 Th
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17.3 RBI Personnel 评估人员
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Failure occurred Probability of Fai
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d) anticipated failure mode(s) (e.g
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17.7 Risk Assessment Results 风
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The methodology, process and person
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17.9 Applicable Codes, Standards, a
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18 Summary of Risk- Based Inspectio
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18.1 General 总则 The following
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期望 RBI 带来不实际的
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18.3 Data and Information Collectio
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18.4 Damage Mechanisms and Failure
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18.5 Assessing POF 评估故障
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18.6 Assessing COF 评估故障
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18.7 Risk Determination, Assessment
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18.8 Risk Management with Inspectio
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18.9 Other Risk Management Activiti
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18.10 Reassessment and Updating RBI
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18.11 Roles, Responsibilities, Trai
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18.12 RBI Documentation and Record
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