Agricultural Drought Indices - US Department of Agriculture

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in DEWS in countries such as Brazil, China, Hungary, India, Nigeria, South Africa, and the United States, but also noted the activities of regional drought monitoring centers in eastern and southern Africa and efforts in West Asia and North Africa. Shortcomings of current DEWS were noted in the following areas: • data networks—inadequate density and data quality of meteorological and hydrological networks and lack of data networks on all major climate and water supply parameters; • data sharing—inadequate data sharing between government agencies and the high cost of data limit the application of data in drought preparedness, mitigation, and response; • early warning system products—data and information products are often not user friendly and users are often not trained in the application of this information to decision making; • drought forecasts—unreliable seasonal forecasts and the lack of specificity of information provided by forecasts limit the use of this information by farmers and others; • drought monitoring tools—inadequate indices for detecting the early onset and end of drought, although the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was cited as an important new monitoring tool to detect the early emergence of drought; • integrated drought/climate monitoring—drought monitoring systems should be integrated and based on multiple indicators to fully understand drought magnitude, spatial extent, and impacts; • drought impact assessment methodology—lack of impact assessment methodology hinders impact estimates and the activation of mitigation and response programs; • delivery systems—data and information on emerging drought conditions, seasonal forecasts, and other products are often not delivered to users in a timely manner; • global drought early warning system—no historical drought database exists and there is no global drought assessment product that is based on one or two key indicators, which could be helpful to international organizations, NGOs, and others. Participants of the expert group meeting on DEWS made several recommendations. Those recommendations that pertained directly to early warning systems were that these systems should be considered an integral part of drought preparedness and mitigation plans and that priority should be given to improving existing observation networks and establishing new meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological networks. Effective drought monitoring requires the integration of a variety of indices and indicators. Indices commonly used to monitor drought and rainfall conditions include the Standardized Precipitation Index, deciles, percent of normal rainfall/precipitation, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Surface Water Supply Index, and the Vegetation Condition Index, among others (see, for example, the U.S. Drought Monitor [http://drought.unl.edu/dm/]). Other indicators of drought often used to monitor conditions include soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, groundwater levels, reservoir and lake levels, vegetation health, and short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts. Remote sensing offers new and exciting opportunities to monitor drought conditions because of higher resolution. These techniques are especially advantageous in regions lacking adequate weather station networks. Considering the complexity of drought and the many indices and indicators necessary to assess its severity and likely impacts, the most successful approach to date (drought.unl.edu/dm) is the U.S. Drought Monitor (Figure 2). This map is produced weekly through a collaborative partnership between the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska. It incorporates multiple indices and indicators of drought, including impacts, into the assessment process. Although many countries do not have the range of data available to replicate this process fully, any approach that incorporates information beyond precipitation and, perhaps, temperature data is going to provide a more accurate picture of drought severity. 17
Figure 2. U.S. Drought Monitor for July 28, 2009. Drought Policy and Preparedness Article 10 of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) states that national action programs should be established to “identify the factors contributing to desertification and practical measures necessary to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought” (UNCCD 1999). In the past 10 years there has been considerable recognition by governments of the need to develop drought preparedness plans and policies to reduce the impacts of drought. Unfortunately, progress in drought preparedness during the last decade has been slow because most nations lack the institutional capacity and human and financial resources necessary to develop comprehensive drought plans and policies. Recent commitments by governments and international organizations and new drought monitoring technologies and planning and mitigation methodologies are cause for optimism. The challenge is the implementation of these new policies, methodologies, and technologies. One of the trends associated with recent drought events has been the growing complexity of drought impacts. Past drought impacts have been linked most closely to the agricultural sector, reducing the capacity of many nations to be food secure. In both developing and developed countries the impacts of drought are often an indicator of non-sustainable land and water management practices, and drought assistance or relief provided by governments and donors often encourages land managers and others to continue these practices. It is precisely these existing resource management practices that have often increased societal vulnerability to drought (i.e., exacerbated drought impacts). This often results in decreased resilience of individuals and communities and an increased dependence on government. One of the principal goals of drought policies and preparedness plans is to move societies away from the traditional approach of crisis management, which is reactive in nature, to a more pro-active, risk management approach. The goal of risk management is to promote the adoption of preventative or risk-reducing measures and strategies that will mitigate the impacts of future drought events, thus reducing societal vulnerability. 18
Page 1 and 2: Agricultural Drought Indices Procee
Page 3 and 4: © World Meteorological Organizatio
Page 5 and 6: Agricultural Drought Indices Procee
Page 7 and 8: Preface With the world population p
Page 9 and 10: Segura River Basin: Spanish Pilot R
Page 11 and 12: Table 3. Segura River Basin resourc
Page 13 and 14: Figure 5. Segura River Basin water
Page 15 and 16: Drought Indicator Expression After
Page 17 and 18: Table 5. Analysis of drought impact
Page 19 and 20: Even with this drought action plan
Page 21 and 22: that complicates water management b
Page 23: Understanding the nature of the haz
Page 27 and 28: Summary Drought is a creeping pheno
Page 29 and 30: Agricultural Drought—WMO Perspect
Page 31 and 32: c) CAgM-VI (Washington, USA, 1974)
Page 33 and 34: an unusually large moisture demand.
Page 35 and 36: the-clock nature of WIGOS, the anal
Page 37 and 38: and temporal variations in drought
Page 39 and 40: Support to Regional Institutions WM
Page 41 and 42: Williams, M.A.J. and R.C. Balling,
Page 43 and 44: The day after Black Sunday, an Asso
Page 45 and 46: Meteorological research at these in
Page 47 and 48: United States is sent to the Secret
Page 49 and 50: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI
Page 51 and 52: PDSI as an operational index since
Page 53 and 54: WAOB, GIS has become an important t
Page 55 and 56: USDM as the official criteria for F
Page 57 and 58: Monitoring Drought Risks in India w
Page 59 and 60: areas recording large incidences of
Page 61 and 62: The analysis revealed that out of 1
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3. Aridity anomaly chart of
Page 65 and 66: Figure 5. Progression of surface we
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
Page 69 and 70: Meteorological and Agricultural Dro
Page 71 and 72: Palmer Drought Severity Index Adapt
Page 73 and 74: Accumulated WD and WS April 2010 Ac
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Soil Water Storage (SWS) September
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hydrological characteristics, and c
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Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
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application of drought indices has
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The Value of Crop and Pasture Simul
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To assist, many agriculturally-spec
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change in Australia. The PDSI provi
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Mpelasoka, F.S., M.A. Collier, R. S
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supply and demand are fully taken i
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In Germany, the Deutsche Wetterdien
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creation of a system of European su
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The second index is extracted from
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Figure 7. Standardized Soil Water I
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References Durand, Y., E. Brun, L.
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Europe around the Iberian Peninsula
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The incoming rainwater and the atmo
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Figure 6. Example of SPI map for a
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The 1991-95 Drought Episode A long-
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adverse climatic impacts on agricul
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Agricultural Drought Indices in the
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efers to deficiencies in surface an
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Figure 5. Time series of standardiz
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Limitations of Agricultural Drought
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Incorporating a Composite Approach
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Figure 3. Daily gridded SPI by regi
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The North American Drought Monitor:
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process (a) emulates natural cycles
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Summary Given the complexity that d
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alance models cannot be applied for
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60 50 40 Error 30 20 Systematic Err
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In Figure 4, examples of the normal
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Figure 7. Water balance for Brazil,
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The soil water balance module in th
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Water Balance as a Tool for Agricul
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Conclusions The topics discussed pr
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Use of Crop Models for Drought Anal
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The parameters used in crop simulat
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a model for cassava and potato (Tsu
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ackground. The system’s most impo
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management. In research, however, p
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Smajstrla, A.G. 1990. Technical Man
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Monitoring Regional Drought Conditi
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Figure 2 represents the regression
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Conclusions and Discussion Several
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Experiences During the Drought Peri
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During the years 2007 and 2008, for
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Figure 6. Management simulation mod
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Figure 9. Irrigation diversions in
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References Andreu, J., Ferrer Polo,
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Table 2. MERIS spectral bands MDS N
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Figure 6. Spanish NSDIE during 2008
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References Gu, Y., J. F. Brown, J.
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Agricultural Drought Indices: Summa
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Table 1. Agricultural drought indic
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Accumulated Rainfall Deficits In an
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Heim (2002) notes that as recently
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each calendar day in the base perio
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The purpose of the climatic charact
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to compare moisture conditions at d
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Table 6. Overview of different drou
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have been adopted because of the av
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TCI = 100 (T max - T) / (T max - T
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Figure 1. The February 8, 2011, US
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8) There is a universal interest in
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Mavromatis, T. 2007. Drought index
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Agricultural Drought Indices Procee
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