Agricultural Drought Indices - US Department of Agriculture

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Pachauri, R.K. and A. Reisinger (eds.). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. Palmer, W.C. 1965. Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45. U.S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C. Palmer, W. C. 1968. Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new crop moisture index. Weatherwise 21(4):156-61. UNCCD. 1999. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (text with annexes). Bonn, Germany. Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International 10:111-120. Wilhite, D.A. (ed.). 2000. Drought: A Global Assessment (2 volumes, 51 chapters, 700 pages). Hazards and Disasters: A Series of Definitive Major Works (7-volume series), edited by A.Z. Keller. Routledge Publishers, London, U.K. Wilhite, D.A., M.J. Hayes, C. Knutson, and K.H. Smith. 2000a. Planning for drought: Moving from crisis to risk management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36:697- 710. Wilhite, D.A., M.K.V. Sivakumar, and D.A. Wood (eds.). 2000b. Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Management (Proceedings of an Experts Meeting). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Wilhite, D.A. and M. Buchanan-Smith. 2005. Drought as hazard: Understanding the natural and social context. Chapter 1 in Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology, and Management Issues (D.A. Wilhite, ed.). CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida. Wilhite, D.A. 2009. The role of monitoring as a component of preparedness planning: Delivery of information and decision support tools. Chapter 1 in Coping with Drought Risk and Agriculture and Water Supply Systems: Drought Policy and Policy Development in the Mediterranean (A. Iglesias, L. Garrote, A. Cancelliere, F. Cubillo, and D.A. Wilhite, eds.). Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. 21
Agricultural Drought—WMO Perspectives Mannava V.K. Sivakumar World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland Abstract The increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in recent decades and the mounting losses from extended droughts in the agricultural sector emphasize the need for assigning an urgent priority to addressing the issue of agricultural droughts. As the United Nations specialized agency with responsibility for meteorology and operational hydrology, WMO, since its inception, has been addressing the issue of droughts. In this respect, WMO promotes systematic observation, collection, analysis, and exchange of meteorological, climatological, and hydrological data and information; drought planning preparedness and management; research into the causes and effects of climate variations and long-term climate predictions with a view to providing early warning; capacity building; and the transfer of knowledge and technology. The fight against drought receives a high priority in the Long-term Plan of WMO, particularly under the Agricultural Meteorology Programme, Hydrology and Water Resources Programme, and Technical Cooperation Programme. Within the context of this Plan, WMO continues to encourage the greater involvement of the national Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and regional and subregional meteorological and hydrological centers in addressing the issues of drought. This paper presents a short description of the perspectives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on drought in general and agricultural drought in particular. This is followed by a short narrative on WMO’s activities in the area of drought. The Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) of WMO since 1967 has appointed a number of working groups and rapporteurs with specific terms of reference. These have mainly addressed several applications, including drought monitoring, forecasting, and control; meteorological aspects of drought processes; operational use of agrometeorology; measures to alleviate the effects of droughts; assessment of the economic impacts; and capacity-building activities. A number of different indices have been used to describe agricultural droughts, and some examples are presented. The role played by NMHSs in drought monitoring, risk assessment, and early warning is described with examples from China, South Africa, and Portugal. WMO has also been placing considerable importance on organizing capacity-building activities in the area of drought preparedness and management, especially in the developing countries, and a list of activities carried out since 1990 is presented. WMO’s support in strengthening the capabilities of regional institutions with droughtrelated programs and in promoting collaboration with other institutions in drought- and desertification-prone regions is described. Introduction Drought is a normal, recurrent climatic feature that occurs in virtually every climatic zone around the world, causing billions of dollars in loss annually for the farming community. Drought ranks first among all natural hazards according to Bryant (1991), who ranked natural hazard events based on various characteristics, such as severity, duration, spatial extent, loss of life, economic loss, social effect, and long-term impact. This is because, compared to other natural hazards like flood and hurricanes that develop quickly and last for a short time, drought is a creeping phenomenon that accumulates over a period of time across a vast area, and the effect lingers for years even after the end of drought (Tannehill 1947). Hence, the loss of life, economic impact, and effects on society are spread over a long period of time, which makes drought the worst among all natural hazards. For example, the Murray-Darling River Basin in Australia was subjected to periods of protracted drought with two decade-long droughts in the last century. Since 2001 it has been experiencing the worst drought in recorded history. System inflows in the three years ending 22
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Page 7 and 8: Preface With the world population p
Page 9 and 10: Segura River Basin: Spanish Pilot R
Page 11 and 12: Table 3. Segura River Basin resourc
Page 13 and 14: Figure 5. Segura River Basin water
Page 15 and 16: Drought Indicator Expression After
Page 17 and 18: Table 5. Analysis of drought impact
Page 19 and 20: Even with this drought action plan
Page 21 and 22: that complicates water management b
Page 23 and 24: Understanding the nature of the haz
Page 25 and 26: Figure 2. U.S. Drought Monitor for
Page 27: Summary Drought is a creeping pheno
Page 31 and 32: c) CAgM-VI (Washington, USA, 1974)
Page 33 and 34: an unusually large moisture demand.
Page 35 and 36: the-clock nature of WIGOS, the anal
Page 37 and 38: and temporal variations in drought
Page 39 and 40: Support to Regional Institutions WM
Page 41 and 42: Williams, M.A.J. and R.C. Balling,
Page 43 and 44: The day after Black Sunday, an Asso
Page 45 and 46: Meteorological research at these in
Page 47 and 48: United States is sent to the Secret
Page 49 and 50: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI
Page 51 and 52: PDSI as an operational index since
Page 53 and 54: WAOB, GIS has become an important t
Page 55 and 56: USDM as the official criteria for F
Page 57 and 58: Monitoring Drought Risks in India w
Page 59 and 60: areas recording large incidences of
Page 61 and 62: The analysis revealed that out of 1
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3. Aridity anomaly chart of
Page 65 and 66: Figure 5. Progression of surface we
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
Page 69 and 70: Meteorological and Agricultural Dro
Page 71 and 72: Palmer Drought Severity Index Adapt
Page 73 and 74: Accumulated WD and WS April 2010 Ac
Page 75 and 76: Soil Water Storage (SWS) September
Page 77 and 78: hydrological characteristics, and c
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Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
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application of drought indices has
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The Value of Crop and Pasture Simul
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To assist, many agriculturally-spec
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change in Australia. The PDSI provi
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Mpelasoka, F.S., M.A. Collier, R. S
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supply and demand are fully taken i
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In Germany, the Deutsche Wetterdien
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creation of a system of European su
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The second index is extracted from
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Figure 7. Standardized Soil Water I
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References Durand, Y., E. Brun, L.
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Europe around the Iberian Peninsula
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The incoming rainwater and the atmo
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Figure 6. Example of SPI map for a
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The 1991-95 Drought Episode A long-
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adverse climatic impacts on agricul
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Agricultural Drought Indices in the
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efers to deficiencies in surface an
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Figure 5. Time series of standardiz
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Limitations of Agricultural Drought
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Incorporating a Composite Approach
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Figure 3. Daily gridded SPI by regi
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The North American Drought Monitor:
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process (a) emulates natural cycles
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Summary Given the complexity that d
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alance models cannot be applied for
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60 50 40 Error 30 20 Systematic Err
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In Figure 4, examples of the normal
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Figure 7. Water balance for Brazil,
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The soil water balance module in th
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Water Balance as a Tool for Agricul
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Conclusions The topics discussed pr
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Use of Crop Models for Drought Anal
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The parameters used in crop simulat
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a model for cassava and potato (Tsu
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ackground. The system’s most impo
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management. In research, however, p
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Smajstrla, A.G. 1990. Technical Man
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Monitoring Regional Drought Conditi
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Figure 2 represents the regression
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Conclusions and Discussion Several
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Experiences During the Drought Peri
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During the years 2007 and 2008, for
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Figure 6. Management simulation mod
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Figure 9. Irrigation diversions in
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References Andreu, J., Ferrer Polo,
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Table 2. MERIS spectral bands MDS N
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Figure 6. Spanish NSDIE during 2008
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References Gu, Y., J. F. Brown, J.
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Agricultural Drought Indices: Summa
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Table 1. Agricultural drought indic
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Accumulated Rainfall Deficits In an
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Heim (2002) notes that as recently
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each calendar day in the base perio
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The purpose of the climatic charact
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to compare moisture conditions at d
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Table 6. Overview of different drou
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have been adopted because of the av
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TCI = 100 (T max - T) / (T max - T
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Figure 1. The February 8, 2011, US
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8) There is a universal interest in
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Mavromatis, T. 2007. Drought index
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Agricultural Drought Indices Procee
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