Agricultural Drought Indices - US Department of Agriculture

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Gevaerd, R. and S.R. Freitas. 2006. Estimativa operacional da umidade do solo para iniciação de modelos de previsão numérica da atmosfera. Parte I: Descrição da metodologia e validação. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 21:59-73. Hillel, D. 1998. Environmental Soil Physics. Academic Press, New York. Marengo, J.A., C.A. Nobre, J. Tomasella, M.D. Oyama, G.S. Oliveira, R. Oliveira, H. Camargo, L.M. Alves, and F. Brown. 2008. The drought of Amazonia in 2005. Journal of Climate 21:495- 516. Molinas, P.A. and F.C.M. Andrade. 1993. Modelo de umidade do solo para atividades agrícolas. Pages 136-145 in Simpósio Brasileiro de Recursos Hídricos, SBRH, Gramado, Brasil. Palmer, W.C. 1965. Meteorological drought. US Weather Bureau Res. No. 45, Washington, D.C. Palmer, W.C. 1968. Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new Crop Moisture Index. Weatherwise 21:156–161. Phillips, O.L., L.E.O.C. Aragão, and S.L. Lewis. 2009. Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest. Science 323:1344–1347. Ritchie, J.T. 1998. Soil water balance and plant water stress. Pages 41-54 in Understanding Options for Agricultural Production (G.Y. Tsugi, G. Hoogenboom, and P.K. Thornton, eds.). Kluwer Academic Publishers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Stuck, J., A. Güntner, and B. Merz. 2006. ENSO impact on simulated South America hydroclimatology. Advances in Geosciences 6:227-236. Thornthwaite, C.W. and J.R. Mather. 1955. The water balance. Publications in Climatology VIII(1):1-104. Drexel Institute of Technology, New Jersey, USA. Wilhite, D.A. 2005. The role of disaster preparedness in national planning with specific reference to droughts. Pages 23-37 in Natural Disasters and Extreme Events in Agriculture (M.V.K. Sivakumar, R.P. Motha, and H.P. Das, eds.). Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany. 71
Agricultural Drought Indices in Current Use in Australia: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Limitations Roger C. Stone Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia Abstract Although indices relevant to meteorological drought, based on rainfall deciles, have proved useful in Australia as a good first indicator of agricultural drought severity, the widely varying nature of Australia’s climate, soils, and farming systems has meant more sophisticated application of crop and pasture models have provided valuable insights into agricultural drought severity. This approach has somewhat overridden the application of potentially simpler to apply and more versatile agricultural drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in drought assessments. However, surprisingly, indices such as the PDSI have proved very useful in analysis of agricultural drought in Australia under various climate change scenarios and general circulation model applications. The various attributes of a number of drought indices, including those subjectively derived, that have been utilized in some application areas in Australia are also described. Background Australia has one of the most variable climates in the world, especially when considering year-toyear rainfall variability. This variability is particularly evident in more eastern and northern regions. Additionally, noticeably wet decades such as the 1950s contrast strongly with protracted dry periods and decades such as the 1990s or since 2002 (Nicholls and Wong 1991, Nicholls 1997, Productivity Commission 2009). An example of this high interannual rainfall variability is provided (Figure 1) in an example for Bowen, a major agricultural production center in northern Queensland. In southwestern, southern, and eastern Australia, the recent meteorological drought from 2002 has been severe and prolonged, and has been compared with the infamous “Federation Drought” (1902-1904) and the severe and protracted drought of the 1940s. Droughts can have particularly devastating social and financial impacts on farmers and their communities in Australia, as well as adverse environmental effects (Productivity Commission 2009). Although it is believed that many in the agricultural community regard drought more as an unexpected deviation and aberration from the “normal” or “good” years and not a component of a long-term climatic continuum, a key aspect in the formation of the National Drought Policy (recently under major review) is a focus on selfreliance by farmers and farming communities to manage their enterprises through most drought events (Smith et al. 1992, White et al. 2005). Agronomists will quickly argue that, for a country such as Australia with exceptionally high year-toyear rainfall variability, widely varying soil types, and associated variation in moisture holding capability, it may simply be too difficult to identify and measure drought by the quantity of rain alone, as the timing and frequency of precipitation “as well as soil type, topography, and land management practices will affect plant responsiveness and the effectiveness of the rainfall received” (White et al. 2005). This is despite the fact that Gibbs and Maher (1967) identified a high correlation between the incidences of (agricultural) drought based on production criteria with annual rainfall in the first decile in Australia. 72
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Agricultural Drought Indices Procee
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© World Meteorological Organizatio
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Preface With the world population p
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Segura River Basin: Spanish Pilot R
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Table 3. Segura River Basin resourc
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Figure 5. Segura River Basin water
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Drought Indicator Expression After
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Table 5. Analysis of drought impact
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Even with this drought action plan
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that complicates water management b
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Understanding the nature of the haz
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Figure 2. U.S. Drought Monitor for
Page 27 and 28: Summary Drought is a creeping pheno
Page 29 and 30: Agricultural Drought—WMO Perspect
Page 31 and 32: c) CAgM-VI (Washington, USA, 1974)
Page 33 and 34: an unusually large moisture demand.
Page 35 and 36: the-clock nature of WIGOS, the anal
Page 37 and 38: and temporal variations in drought
Page 39 and 40: Support to Regional Institutions WM
Page 41 and 42: Williams, M.A.J. and R.C. Balling,
Page 43 and 44: The day after Black Sunday, an Asso
Page 45 and 46: Meteorological research at these in
Page 47 and 48: United States is sent to the Secret
Page 49 and 50: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI
Page 51 and 52: PDSI as an operational index since
Page 53 and 54: WAOB, GIS has become an important t
Page 55 and 56: USDM as the official criteria for F
Page 57 and 58: Monitoring Drought Risks in India w
Page 59 and 60: areas recording large incidences of
Page 61 and 62: The analysis revealed that out of 1
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3. Aridity anomaly chart of
Page 65 and 66: Figure 5. Progression of surface we
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
Page 69 and 70: Meteorological and Agricultural Dro
Page 71 and 72: Palmer Drought Severity Index Adapt
Page 73 and 74: Accumulated WD and WS April 2010 Ac
Page 75 and 76: Soil Water Storage (SWS) September
Page 77: hydrological characteristics, and c
Page 81 and 82: application of drought indices has
Page 83 and 84: The Value of Crop and Pasture Simul
Page 85 and 86: To assist, many agriculturally-spec
Page 87 and 88: change in Australia. The PDSI provi
Page 89 and 90: Mpelasoka, F.S., M.A. Collier, R. S
Page 91 and 92: supply and demand are fully taken i
Page 93 and 94: In Germany, the Deutsche Wetterdien
Page 95 and 96: creation of a system of European su
Page 97 and 98: The second index is extracted from
Page 99 and 100: Figure 7. Standardized Soil Water I
Page 101 and 102: References Durand, Y., E. Brun, L.
Page 103 and 104: Europe around the Iberian Peninsula
Page 105 and 106: The incoming rainwater and the atmo
Page 107 and 108: Figure 6. Example of SPI map for a
Page 109 and 110: The 1991-95 Drought Episode A long-
Page 111 and 112: adverse climatic impacts on agricul
Page 113 and 114: Agricultural Drought Indices in the
Page 115 and 116: efers to deficiencies in surface an
Page 117 and 118: Figure 5. Time series of standardiz
Page 119 and 120: Limitations of Agricultural Drought
Page 121 and 122: Incorporating a Composite Approach
Page 123 and 124: Figure 3. Daily gridded SPI by regi
Page 125 and 126: The North American Drought Monitor:
Page 127 and 128: process (a) emulates natural cycles
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Summary Given the complexity that d
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alance models cannot be applied for
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60 50 40 Error 30 20 Systematic Err
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In Figure 4, examples of the normal
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Figure 7. Water balance for Brazil,
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The soil water balance module in th
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Water Balance as a Tool for Agricul
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Conclusions The topics discussed pr
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Use of Crop Models for Drought Anal
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The parameters used in crop simulat
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a model for cassava and potato (Tsu
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ackground. The system’s most impo
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management. In research, however, p
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Smajstrla, A.G. 1990. Technical Man
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Monitoring Regional Drought Conditi
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Figure 2 represents the regression
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Conclusions and Discussion Several
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Experiences During the Drought Peri
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During the years 2007 and 2008, for
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Figure 6. Management simulation mod
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Figure 9. Irrigation diversions in
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References Andreu, J., Ferrer Polo,
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Table 2. MERIS spectral bands MDS N
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Figure 6. Spanish NSDIE during 2008
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References Gu, Y., J. F. Brown, J.
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Agricultural Drought Indices: Summa
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Table 1. Agricultural drought indic
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Accumulated Rainfall Deficits In an
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Heim (2002) notes that as recently
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each calendar day in the base perio
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The purpose of the climatic charact
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to compare moisture conditions at d
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Table 6. Overview of different drou
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have been adopted because of the av
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TCI = 100 (T max - T) / (T max - T
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Figure 1. The February 8, 2011, US
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8) There is a universal interest in
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Mavromatis, T. 2007. Drought index
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