Agricultural Drought Indices - US Department of Agriculture

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Acknowledgments The author is grateful to Dr. John Sims, Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE), for his kind assistance in providing some background information that helped in the preparation of this manuscript. The author is grateful to the Managing Climate Variability Program (formerly through Land and Water Australia) for project funding support that led to the many outputs provided in this manuscript being developed in Australia. References Alley, W.M. 1984. The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and assumptions. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23:1100-1109. Australia Parliament. 1992. Senate Standing Committee on Rural and Regional Affairs. A National Drought Policy, Appropriate government responses to recommendations of the Drought Policy Review Task Force: Final Report. 97pp. Burke, E.J., S.J. Brown, and N. Christidis. 2006. Modeling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model. Journal of Hydrometeorology 7(5):1113-1125. Burke, E.J. and S.J. Brown. 2008. Evaluating uncertainties in the projection of future drought. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(2):292-299. Dai, A., K.E. Trenberth, and T.R. Karl. 1998. Global variations in drought and wet spells. Geophysical Research Letters 25(17):3367-3380. Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Qian. 2004. A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology 5(6):1117-1130. Department of Primary Industries, Queensland. 1992. Drought: Managing for self-reliance: a policy paper. Queensland, Department of Primary Industries, Brisbane, 22pp. Donnelly, J.R., M. Freer, and A.D. Moore. 1998. Using the GrassGro decision support tool to evaluate some objective criteria for the definition of exceptional drought. Agricultural Systems 57:301- 313. Freer, M., A.D. Moore, and J.R. Donnelly. 1997. GRAZPLAN: Decision support systems for Australian grazing enterprises-II. The animal biology model for feed intake, production and reproduction and the GrazFeed DSS. Agricultural Systems 54:77-126. Gibbs, W.J. and J.V. Maher. 1967. Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology, Bulletin No. 48, Melbourne. Hayes, M.J. 2006. What is drought—Drought indices. National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln. http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/indices.htm. Hobbins, M.T., A. Dai, M.L. Roderick, and G.D. Farquhar. 2008. Revisiting the parameterization of potential evaporation as a driver of long-term water balance trends. Geophysical Research Letters 35:L12403, doi:10.1029/2008GL033840. Huete, A., K. Didan, T. Miura, E.P. Rodriguez, X. Gau, and L.G. Ferriera. 2002. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sensing of Environment 83:195-213. Keating, B. A. and H. Meinke. 1998. Assessing exceptional drought with a cropping systems simulator: A case study for grain production in northeast Australia. Agricultural Systems 57(3):315-332. Kogan, F.N. 1990. Remote sensing of weather impacts on vegetation in non-homogeneous areas. International Journal of Remote Sensing 11:1405-1419. Kogan, F.N. 1995. Droughts of the late 1980s in the United States as derived from NOAA polar orbiting satellite data. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76:655-668. McCown, R. L., G.L. Hammer, J.N.G. Hargreaves, D.M. Holzworth, and D.M. Freebairn. 1996. APSIM: A novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research. Agricultural Systems 50:255-271. McDonald, C.K. 1994. Calculating climatic indices affecting plant growth. Tropical Agronomy Technical Memorandum No. 83, CSIRO Division of Tropical Crops and Pastures, Brisbane, Qld. McVicar, T.R., and D.L.B Jupp.1998. The current and potential operational uses of remote sensing to aid decisions on Drought Exceptional Circumstances in Australia: A review. Agricultural Systems 57(3):399-468. Moore, A.D., J.R. Donnelly, J.R., and M. Freer. 1997. GrazPlan: Decision support systems for Australian grazing enterprises. III. Pasture growth and soil moisture submodels and the GrassGro DSS. Agricultural Systems 55:535-582. 81
Mpelasoka, F.S., M.A. Collier, R. Suppiah, and J. Pena Arancibai. 2001. Application of Palmer Drought Severity Index to Observed and Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions using CSIRO Mk3 GCM Simulations. Pages 10-13 in MODSIM, Christchurch, New Zealand, December 2007. Nicholls, N. and K.K. Wong. 1991. Dependence of rainfall variability on mean latitude and the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 3:163-170. Nicholls, N. 1997. Developments in climatology in Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine 46:127-135. Palmer, W.C. 1965. Meteorological drought. United States Weather Bureau, Research Paper No. 45. Palmer, W.C. 1968. Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new Crop Moisture Index. Weatherwise 21:156-161. Potgieter, A.B., G.L. Hammer, A. Doherty, and P. deVoil. 2005. A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 132(1-2):143-153. Potgieter, A.B., G.L. Hammer, and A. Doherty. 2006. Oz-wheat: a regional-scale crop yield simulation model for Australian wheat. Queensland DPI&F Information Series, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Brisbane, 15pp. Prescott, J.A. 1949. Climate expressions and generalized climate zones in relation to soils and vegetation. Pages 27-33 in Plant and animal nutrition in relation to soil and climatic factors. Proceedings of Specialist Conference in Agriculture (British Commonwealth Scientific Official Conference, ed.). His Majesty’s Stationery Office, London. Productivity Commission. 2009. Government Drought Report. Report No. 46. Final Enquiry Report, Melbourne. February 27, 2009. 431pp. Sheffield, J., G. Goteti, F. Wen, and E.F. Wood. 2004. A simulated soil moisture based drought analysis for the United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, D24108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005182. Sivakumar, M.V.K. and D.A. Wilhite. 2002. Drought preparedness and drought management. Paper 2 in Drought Mitigation and Prevention of Land Desertification, Proceedings International Conference, Bled, Slovenia. UNESCO and Slovenian Nat. Com. ICID, Ljubljana, CD-ROM. Smith, D.I., M.F. Hutchinson, and R.J. McArthur. 1992. Climatic and Agricultural Drought: Payments and Policy. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia. Stafford-Smith, D.M. and G.M. McKeon. 1998. Assessing the historical frequency of drought events on grazing properties in Australian rangelands. Agricultural Systems 57:271-299. Stafford-Smith, M. 2003. Linking environments, decision-making and policy in handling climate variability. Pages 131-152 in Beyond Drought: People, Policy and Perspectives (L.C. Botterill and M. Fisher, eds.). CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, Australia. Stephens, D.J. 1998. Objective criteria for estimating the severity of drought in the wheat cropping areas of Australia. Agricultural Systems 57(3):333-350. Thornthwaite, C.W. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review 38:55-94. Ummenhofer, C.C., M.H. England, P.C. McIntosh, G.A. Meyers, M.J. Pook, J.S. Risbey, A. Sen Gupta, and A.S. Taschetto. 2009. What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts? Geophysical Research Letters 36:L04706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036801. White, D.H., L. Botterill, and B. O’Meagher. 2005. At the intersection of drought and politics – Defining exceptional drought. Pages 99-111 in From Disaster Response to Risk Management Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research (L.C. Botterill and D.A.Wilhite, eds.). Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. White, D.H. and J.J. Walcott. 2009. The role of seasonal indices in monitoring and assessing agricultural and other droughts: A review. Crop and Pasture Science 60:599-616. Wilhite, D.A., ed. 2000. Drought: A Global Assessment. Volume 1. Routledge, London. Willeke, G., J.R.M. Hosking, J.R. Wallis, and N.B. Guttman. 1994. The National Drought Atlas. Institute for Water Resources Report 94-NDS-4, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 82
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Agricultural Drought Indices Procee
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© World Meteorological Organizatio
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Page 7 and 8:
Preface With the world population p
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Segura River Basin: Spanish Pilot R
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Table 3. Segura River Basin resourc
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Figure 5. Segura River Basin water
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Drought Indicator Expression After
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Table 5. Analysis of drought impact
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Even with this drought action plan
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that complicates water management b
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Understanding the nature of the haz
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Figure 2. U.S. Drought Monitor for
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Summary Drought is a creeping pheno
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Agricultural Drought—WMO Perspect
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c) CAgM-VI (Washington, USA, 1974)
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an unusually large moisture demand.
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the-clock nature of WIGOS, the anal
Page 37 and 38: and temporal variations in drought
Page 39 and 40: Support to Regional Institutions WM
Page 41 and 42: Williams, M.A.J. and R.C. Balling,
Page 43 and 44: The day after Black Sunday, an Asso
Page 45 and 46: Meteorological research at these in
Page 47 and 48: United States is sent to the Secret
Page 49 and 50: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI
Page 51 and 52: PDSI as an operational index since
Page 53 and 54: WAOB, GIS has become an important t
Page 55 and 56: USDM as the official criteria for F
Page 57 and 58: Monitoring Drought Risks in India w
Page 59 and 60: areas recording large incidences of
Page 61 and 62: The analysis revealed that out of 1
Page 63 and 64: Figure 3. Aridity anomaly chart of
Page 65 and 66: Figure 5. Progression of surface we
Page 67 and 68: Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
Page 69 and 70: Meteorological and Agricultural Dro
Page 71 and 72: Palmer Drought Severity Index Adapt
Page 73 and 74: Accumulated WD and WS April 2010 Ac
Page 75 and 76: Soil Water Storage (SWS) September
Page 77 and 78: hydrological characteristics, and c
Page 79 and 80: Agricultural Drought Indices in Cur
Page 81 and 82: application of drought indices has
Page 83 and 84: The Value of Crop and Pasture Simul
Page 85 and 86: To assist, many agriculturally-spec
Page 87: change in Australia. The PDSI provi
Page 91 and 92: supply and demand are fully taken i
Page 93 and 94: In Germany, the Deutsche Wetterdien
Page 95 and 96: creation of a system of European su
Page 97 and 98: The second index is extracted from
Page 99 and 100: Figure 7. Standardized Soil Water I
Page 101 and 102: References Durand, Y., E. Brun, L.
Page 103 and 104: Europe around the Iberian Peninsula
Page 105 and 106: The incoming rainwater and the atmo
Page 107 and 108: Figure 6. Example of SPI map for a
Page 109 and 110: The 1991-95 Drought Episode A long-
Page 111 and 112: adverse climatic impacts on agricul
Page 113 and 114: Agricultural Drought Indices in the
Page 115 and 116: efers to deficiencies in surface an
Page 117 and 118: Figure 5. Time series of standardiz
Page 119 and 120: Limitations of Agricultural Drought
Page 121 and 122: Incorporating a Composite Approach
Page 123 and 124: Figure 3. Daily gridded SPI by regi
Page 125 and 126: The North American Drought Monitor:
Page 127 and 128: process (a) emulates natural cycles
Page 129 and 130: Summary Given the complexity that d
Page 131 and 132: alance models cannot be applied for
Page 133 and 134: 60 50 40 Error 30 20 Systematic Err
Page 135 and 136: In Figure 4, examples of the normal
Page 137 and 138: Figure 7. Water balance for Brazil,
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The soil water balance module in th
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Water Balance as a Tool for Agricul
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Conclusions The topics discussed pr
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Use of Crop Models for Drought Anal
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The parameters used in crop simulat
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a model for cassava and potato (Tsu
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ackground. The system’s most impo
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management. In research, however, p
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Smajstrla, A.G. 1990. Technical Man
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Monitoring Regional Drought Conditi
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Figure 2 represents the regression
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Conclusions and Discussion Several
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Experiences During the Drought Peri
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During the years 2007 and 2008, for
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Figure 6. Management simulation mod
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Figure 9. Irrigation diversions in
Page 171 and 172:
References Andreu, J., Ferrer Polo,
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Table 2. MERIS spectral bands MDS N
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Figure 6. Spanish NSDIE during 2008
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References Gu, Y., J. F. Brown, J.
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Agricultural Drought Indices: Summa
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Table 1. Agricultural drought indic
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Accumulated Rainfall Deficits In an
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Heim (2002) notes that as recently
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each calendar day in the base perio
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The purpose of the climatic charact
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to compare moisture conditions at d
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Table 6. Overview of different drou
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have been adopted because of the av
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TCI = 100 (T max - T) / (T max - T
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Figure 1. The February 8, 2011, US
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8) There is a universal interest in
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Mavromatis, T. 2007. Drought index
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