Education Sector Development Program - VLIR-UOS

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CHAPTER
6
Major assumptions, risks and
mitigation
It is true to say that planning is intrinsically
associated with uncertainty and risk, but
planning becomes more realistic if it is able to
identify risks and anticipate action, wherever
possible, to mitigate anticipated risks which can
be controlled by human beings.
It is useful to make a distinction between internal
and external risks. Internal risks are those
which are internal to the education sector itself.
They are thus much more under the control of
planners and managers of the education sector
than external risks which may arise outside of
the education sector, and for which educational
responses are inadequate. Within its specific
history and cultural and social characteristics,
each country has its own set of internal and
external risks.
Assumptions are directly related to risks. They
represent specific situations which will be
essential for the successful implementation of a
large-scale educational intervention, such as an
education development plan.
Assumptions
The following assumptions have been identified as
particularly crucial for ESDP IV implementation:
1. A peaceful and stable environment
The development of education demands a
peaceful and stable environment, so that children
do not feel threatened going to school and that
communities see investment in the education of
their children as a source for future development.
Ethiopia has gone through periods of internal
and external unrest. However, several years
of border stability and internal peace seem to
indicate that the internal environment of Ethiopia
has been stabilized and that peace is likely to be
maintained in the near future.
2. Continued economic growth
Ethiopia’s economic activities have shown
encouraging results since some fifteen years.
Economic growth has been high in Ethiopia with
real GDP growth in the order of 10% between
2004/05 and 2008/2009. So far the world economic
crisis has only slightly affected the economic
growth of Ethiopia (2009/10 growth rate of 7%), but
there is also a fear that the economic downturn
in neighboring countries could further affect
Ethiopia. In addition, the rather high inflation
rates experienced over recent years could entail
macro-economic imbalances which in turn could
negatively affect continued economic growth.
However, inflation has been lowered recently. On
the whole, internal and external experts agree
that Ethiopia stands a good chance to continue
its swift economic development. The targeted
GDP growth rate as indicated by MoFED (of an
average of 10.4% over the ESDP IV period) may
be achievable.
3. Government commitment to choices
made
ESDP IV represents a coherent set of choices with
new emphases, such as the commitment to quality
and the focus on science and technology. Such
choices need long term commitment and major
investment maintained at least in the medium, if
not long term before they can bear their desired
effects and impact. The Government of Ethiopia
has indeed an overarching development vision
which indicates that it is strongly committed to
them, not only in the education sector, but at the
inter-sectoral level through its vision to become
a middle-income country by 2025.
4. Federal, regional and woreda offices are
guided by a common vision
Given the federal nature of the Ethiopian
political system, regions and woredas are the
main implementers of the general education
component of ESDP IV. Indeed, regions receive
their budgets directly from MoFED and they are
free to allocate it within their own set of priorities
to respond to their particular circumstances. In
order to achieve a coherent implementation of
ESDP IV, the federal level will work closely with
the regions, to provide technical guidance for the
preparation of the regional plans and to engage
in joint operational planning and monitoring of
ESDP IV implementation. Necessary mechanisms
have been foreseen through the M&E design of
ESDP IV.
5. Continuous support of development
partners
Similar to the federal and decentralized
government, it is expected that development
partners remain committed to the priorities of
ESDP IV once they have agreed to the overall plan
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