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Education Sector Development Program - VLIR-UOS

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<strong>Education</strong> <strong>Sector</strong> <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Program</strong> IV<br />

Assumptions for cost<br />

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Assumptions are made about inflation in 2008/2009 and 2009/10. All costs for the planning<br />

period are in 2010/11 prices.<br />

Average teacher salaries will increase in line with inflation.<br />

For textbooks, learning materials and school construction, targeted prices are indicated at<br />

the base year value. In the model, unit costs are incremented with inflation rate.<br />

School operating costs include an allowance for school maintenance and the school grant.<br />

20% of textbooks are to be replaced every year.<br />

Cost estimates have been added for some specific programs, as follows:<br />

• Adult education: cost of a two-year FAL course: 20 US$ per participant per year<br />

• School feeding program - Primary schools in six regions: 1290 schools in the program<br />

• Scholarships <strong>Program</strong> for 2% of Grade 9 & 10 students, at an average of 2000 Birr<br />

• Boarding facilities in secondary schools for 1% of students<br />

• ICT program: a cost estimate made by the relevant Process indicates a total cost over the fiveyear<br />

period of 2,341,780,260 billion birr.<br />

Cost estimates for higher education have been made outside of the model, by Ministry and<br />

university staff.<br />

Assumptions for financing<br />

Real GDP growth is estimated by MoFED as follows: 7% in 2010/11, 8% in 2011/12; 10.4% in 2012/13;<br />

10.6% in 2013/14; 10.9% in 2014/15. The shares of the National budget in the GDP and of the Federal and<br />

Regional budgets in the National Budget are kept constant at base year (2008/2009) levels. The shares<br />

of education in the federal and regional budgets, and the share of primary education in the regional<br />

budget are kept constant at the three-year average (2006/07-2008/2009). Hereunder are the base year<br />

figures:<br />

❚ % National budget / GDP Recurrent 9.1%<br />

Capital 10.6%<br />

❚ % Federal budget / National Recurrent 41.0%<br />

Capital 67.0%<br />

❚ % Regional budget / National Recurrent 59.0%<br />

Capital 33.0%<br />

❚ % <strong>Education</strong> / Federal Budget Recurrent 14.9%<br />

Capital 18.8%<br />

❚ % <strong>Education</strong> / Regional Budget Recurrent 35.2%<br />

Capital 9.2%<br />

❚ % Primary <strong>Education</strong> / Regional Budget Recurrent 64.5%<br />

Capital 46.6%<br />

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