Education Sector Development Program - VLIR-UOS

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— CHAPTER 6 Major assumptions, risks and mitigation It is true to say that planning is intrinsically associated with uncertainty and risk, but planning becomes more realistic if it is able to identify risks and anticipate action, wherever possible, to mitigate anticipated risks which can be controlled by human beings. It is useful to make a distinction between internal and external risks. Internal risks are those which are internal to the education sector itself. They are thus much more under the control of planners and managers of the education sector than external risks which may arise outside of the education sector, and for which educational responses are inadequate. Within its specific history and cultural and social characteristics, each country has its own set of internal and external risks. Assumptions are directly related to risks. They represent specific situations which will be essential for the successful implementation of a large-scale educational intervention, such as an education development plan. Assumptions The following assumptions have been identified as particularly crucial for ESDP IV implementation: 1. A peaceful and stable environment The development of education demands a peaceful and stable environment, so that children do not feel threatened going to school and that communities see investment in the education of their children as a source for future development. Ethiopia has gone through periods of internal and external unrest. However, several years of border stability and internal peace seem to indicate that the internal environment of Ethiopia has been stabilized and that peace is likely to be maintained in the near future. 2. Continued economic growth Ethiopia’s economic activities have shown encouraging results since some fifteen years. Economic growth has been high in Ethiopia with real GDP growth in the order of 10% between 2004/05 and 2008/2009. So far the world economic crisis has only slightly affected the economic growth of Ethiopia (2009/10 growth rate of 7%), but there is also a fear that the economic downturn in neighboring countries could further affect Ethiopia. In addition, the rather high inflation rates experienced over recent years could entail macro-economic imbalances which in turn could negatively affect continued economic growth. However, inflation has been lowered recently. On the whole, internal and external experts agree that Ethiopia stands a good chance to continue its swift economic development. The targeted GDP growth rate as indicated by MoFED (of an average of 10.4% over the ESDP IV period) may be achievable. 3. Government commitment to choices made ESDP IV represents a coherent set of choices with new emphases, such as the commitment to quality and the focus on science and technology. Such choices need long term commitment and major investment maintained at least in the medium, if not long term before they can bear their desired effects and impact. The Government of Ethiopia has indeed an overarching development vision which indicates that it is strongly committed to them, not only in the education sector, but at the inter-sectoral level through its vision to become a middle-income country by 2025. 4. Federal, regional and woreda offices are guided by a common vision Given the federal nature of the Ethiopian political system, regions and woredas are the main implementers of the general education component of ESDP IV. Indeed, regions receive their budgets directly from MoFED and they are free to allocate it within their own set of priorities to respond to their particular circumstances. In order to achieve a coherent implementation of ESDP IV, the federal level will work closely with the regions, to provide technical guidance for the preparation of the regional plans and to engage in joint operational planning and monitoring of ESDP IV implementation. Necessary mechanisms have been foreseen through the M&E design of ESDP IV. 5. Continuous support of development partners Similar to the federal and decentralized government, it is expected that development partners remain committed to the priorities of ESDP IV once they have agreed to the overall plan 106
Education Sector Development Program IV and to fund certain of its components. Given the longstanding engagement of most development partners to the improvement of education in Ethiopia, it can be expected that such positive collaboration will continue in the medium term. 6. Full implementation of BPR Under ESDP III, public administration in Ethiopia has engaged in an ambitious reform to restructure its organization conducted under the business process reengineering paradigm. At all levels of the administration, departments operating by sub-sectors were abolished in favor of a process oriented structures. The reform still requests full implementation so that it can reach its intended effects of increased effectiveness and efficiency. Policy makers have been fully committed so far to its implementation and this can be expected to continue. Risks and mitigation While the above are assumptions that form broad underlying conditions for a successful ESDP IV implementation, there are also some risks which are inherent to the education sector. 1. Turn-over of qualified staff (both teaching and administrative) Under ESDP III many capacity development activities were conducted throughout the education sector, but both teaching and administrative staff continue to experience a high level of turnover. ESDP IV is equally geared to capacity development, but it also foresees activities related to career progression and career development which should enhance the motivation of staff to remain within present functions, and thus help to reduce staff turnover. 2. Community support slowing down The level of community support to education has been significant under ESDP III in particular with regard to the construction of schools in rural areas. The motivation of the community to support education is very high because parents perceive education as a prospect for social mobility and a substantial opportunity to improve life chances of their children. There may be a risk that education is not able to fulfill promises because the labor market may not be in a position to absorb flows of qualified graduates from education. As a consequence, community support may slow down out of a sentiment of disillusion. The drive to improve quality during this five year plan is designed to keep communities supportive of keeping their children in school. Understanding labour market demand for more educated employees will also be key to a more nuanced approach. 3. Lack of sustainability of reliance on the private sector, especially for the development of TVET The current involvement of the private sector in organizing and delivering TVET programs is very high since more than 50% of TVET students are enrolled in the private sector. Given that parents have to pay tuition fees, this is an expression of the strong interest of families to offer education to their children beyond secondary education, but also of the capacity of the private sector to take on this task. The sustainability of a privately organized TVET may be questioned since it depends on the capacity of families to contribute which itself is a function of their income. In case of economic downturn, the private offer may shrink and training opportunities could disappear. A clear link between technical vocational education and work opportunities will again be important to reducing this risk. 4. Emergencies : drought and natural catastrophes Over the past years, Ethiopia experienced several periods of drought which have severely affected certain regions with regard to food security. Emergencies such as caused through natural catastrophes affect all parts of human life, including education. Populations may need to be on the move. Children may not be in a position to go to school. Funding may be distracted from education for emergency interventions and food. ESDP IV has foreseen a cross-cutting program on education in emergencies as a means to be able to quickly respond to the circumstances arising out of emergency. 5. Funding gap Implementation of the plan depends on filling a funding gap of about 30 billion birr over the life of the program Failure to fill this funding gap will mean that elements of the education program will not be implemented. Increased government financing (though the share of education in the budget is already high), continued and growing donor support and community contributions can help fill this gap, while a more effective use of available resources will also lead to greater results. 107
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The Federal Democratic Republic of
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The Federal Democratic Republic of
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Table of contents Acknowledgements
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MDG MLC MOE MOFED MOU MRE MSE NER N
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Education Sector Development Progra
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— CHAPTER 3 Priority action progr
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Education Sector Development Program - VLIR-UOS

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