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Crimes (Forensic Procedures) Act 2000 - NSW Ombudsman - NSW ...

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If two samples match, it is possible to say two things: first, that they could have come from the one person and,<br />

secondly, that results like the ones produced occur in the population at a particular rate or frequency. If there<br />

is an exclusion, there may be no point in considering the result at any other locus but if there is a match, that is<br />

what is done. If there is another match, the rate of occurrence of the result achieved at the second locus may<br />

be calculated once again by reference to a database. Provided the two tests are independent, that is provided<br />

the results at one locus do not influence and are not influenced by the results at another locus, the two individual<br />

rates of occurrence can be multiplied together to produce a combined rate of occurrence.<br />

So if the same result at the first locus occurs the population in, say, one in ten people and the results at the<br />

second occur in, say, one in fifteen people, you can say that the combination of the two results occurs at the<br />

rate of one in ten times fifteen, that is one in one hundred and fifty in the population. And if you keep on doing<br />

further tests and getting matches, you can keep on multiplying each new rate of occurrence to produce a new<br />

combined rate of occurrence. So if you do many tests and the samples always match, although you will never<br />

prove that the two samples came from the one person, you will be able to say that the chances of the sample<br />

you are considering having come from someone other than the person you are trying to exclude is small. The<br />

more matches you get the smaller becomes the chance that the sample came from somebody else. 1183<br />

The product rule assumes that the tests at each locus are independent; that is, that the results at one locus do not<br />

influence the results at another. 1184<br />

The more loci examined, the more discriminating the comparison, and the higher the numbers in the final match<br />

probability will be. This explains why such incredibly high numbers are cited, such as, “that profile is expected to<br />

occur in fewer than one in ten billion persons,” 1185 or “the probability of a match by chance was calculated at 10 billion<br />

to one.” 1186 Conversely, the fewer loci examined, the less discriminating the comparison will be.<br />

Case Study 88<br />

In 1999, a disabled man in the United Kingdom was arrested when his six-locus DNA profile was found to<br />

match the profile derived from a crime scene several hundred kilometres away. The match probability was<br />

reportedly one in 37 million. The man was released after a ten-locus test showed there were differences<br />

between the man’s DNA and the DNA from the crime scene. 1187<br />

Laboratories in New South Wales currently examine nine loci plus the sex indicator, although it is possible that in the<br />

future they will examine more, which will be more discriminating again. Laboratories in the United States examine nine<br />

loci, as they generally use the Profiler Plus system too. 1188 The United Kingdom and New Zealand both use the more<br />

discriminating SGM Plus system, which examines ten loci and the sex indicator. 1189<br />

While the match probability is what gives DNA evidence its probative value, there is no clear consensus on how<br />

it should be calculated. 1190 One area of debate is whether (and how) the match probability should account for<br />

relatedness. The product rule ignores the fact that there may be reasons why results at certain loci are the same<br />

for different people, for example because the people are directly related, or because certain results are found more<br />

frequently within some subpopulations. Small or isolated populations may be less genetically diverse than large,<br />

urban populations, and it may be necessary to allow for underlying relatedness when calculating the match probability<br />

in relation to a particular population. 1191<br />

There have been a number of challenges based on the failure of the reported match probability to take relatedness<br />

into account. In R v Pantoja (1996), the defence objected to the DNA evidence on the basis that the statistics were<br />

based on databases which were unlikely to have included samples from South American Quechua Indians, who<br />

could differ from the general population as they had evolved in relative isolation. On appeal, the court rejected this<br />

argument, although the appeal was allowed on the basis that the prosecution had not established the statistical<br />

validity of the databases used. 1192<br />

In R v To (2002), the accused appealed on the basis that DAL had consulted both Australian and Asian population<br />

databases in producing the statistical evidence, and that the results were not reliable. The prosecution expert gave<br />

evidence that in drawing conclusions from the databases he used conservative estimates in deciding what value<br />

to use to compensate for interrelatedness in his calculations. The court accepted this approach, and the appeal<br />

failed. 1193<br />

250<br />

<strong>NSW</strong> <strong>Ombudsman</strong><br />

DNA sampling and other forensic procedures conducted on suspects and volunteers under the <strong>Crimes</strong> (<strong>Forensic</strong> <strong>Procedures</strong>) <strong>Act</strong> <strong>2000</strong>

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