25.01.2015 Views

Update on Merger with Polymetals - Notice of Meeting

Update on Merger with Polymetals - Notice of Meeting

Update on Merger with Polymetals - Notice of Meeting

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

underperform the market’s average return in a falling market. On the other hand, a beta less than <strong>on</strong>e<br />

implies that the business’ performance compared to that <strong>of</strong> a business whose beta is greater than <strong>on</strong>e will<br />

provide an inverse relati<strong>on</strong>ship in terms <strong>of</strong> the market’s average return.<br />

Equity betas are normally either an historical beta or an adjusted beta. The historical beta is obtained<br />

from the linear regressi<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> a stock’s historical data and is based <strong>on</strong> the observed relati<strong>on</strong>ship between<br />

the security’s return and the returns <strong>on</strong> an index. An adjusted beta is calculated based <strong>on</strong> the assumpti<strong>on</strong><br />

that the relative risk <strong>of</strong> the past will c<strong>on</strong>tinue into the future, and hence derived from the historical data.<br />

It is then modified by the assumpti<strong>on</strong> that a stock will move towards the market over time, taking into<br />

c<strong>on</strong>siderati<strong>on</strong> the industry risk factors which make the operating risk <strong>of</strong> the investment project greater or<br />

less risky than comparable listed companies when assessing the equity beta for an investment project.<br />

It is important to note that it is not possible to compare the equity betas <strong>of</strong> different companies <strong>with</strong>out<br />

having regard to their gearing levels. Thus, a more valid analysis <strong>of</strong> betas can be achieved by “ungearing”<br />

the equity beta (β a ) by applying the following formula:<br />

β a = β / (1+(D/E x (1-t))<br />

In order to assess the appropriate equity beta for the Merged Entity we have had regard to the equity<br />

betas <strong>of</strong> listed companies involved in similar activities in similar industry sectors. The geared betas below<br />

have been calculated against the All Ordinaries Index.<br />

Company Market Capitalisati<strong>on</strong> ($) Geared beta Gross debt/equity Ungeared beta<br />

<strong>Polymetals</strong> Mining Limited 6,891,412 0.81 0% 0.81<br />

Rand Mining Limited 21,294,422 1.28 9% 1.20<br />

BCD Resources NL 3,622,562 0.78 1% 0.77<br />

Kalnorth Gold Mines Limited 20,389,200 0.86 0% 0.86<br />

Octag<strong>on</strong>al Resources Limited 10,604,800 0.93 0% 0.93<br />

Ramelius Resources Limited 64,172,432 1.06 2% 1.04<br />

Excelsior Gold Limited 53,830,193 1.01 0% 1.01<br />

Tanami Gold NL 48,766,525 1.04 71% 0.69<br />

Selected Beta (β)<br />

In selecting an appropriate Beta for the Merged Entity, we have c<strong>on</strong>sidered the similarities between the<br />

projects and the comparable companies selected above. The comparable similarities and differences<br />

noted are:<br />

• the comparable companies’ mining and explorati<strong>on</strong> assets have varying risk pr<strong>of</strong>iles depending <strong>on</strong><br />

the maturity <strong>of</strong> the assets and the stages and locati<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> producti<strong>on</strong>; and<br />

• several companies having been producing for a c<strong>on</strong>siderable time period.<br />

Mean 0.92<br />

Median 0.90<br />

Having regard to the above we c<strong>on</strong>sider that an appropriate ungeared beta to apply to the Merged Entity<br />

is between 0.90 and 1.20. We c<strong>on</strong>sider it reas<strong>on</strong>able that a forward looking ungeared beta for the Merged<br />

Entity will reflect that <strong>of</strong> its peers. The median beta <strong>of</strong> the comparable companies was selected as the<br />

low end <strong>of</strong> the beta range. The high end <strong>of</strong> the beta range <strong>of</strong> 1.20 was selected to reflect the higher risk<br />

89

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!