Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Table 18 Agricultural Damages by Flood Event Project Damages by event Total Estimated Dollars of Damages by Event Alternative ------------------------ Flood Frequency--------------------------- DAMAGES (Computed) 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 WITHOUT PROJECT 3,224,427 5,940,323 7,454,125 8,787,294 9,630,251 10,360,871 11,124,327 CHANNEL MOD 1,977,890 3,953,103 6,046,020 8,278,774 9,429,595 10,143,413 10,928,145 CHEVRON LEVEE 3,224,427 5,511,686 6,756,936 7,882,579 8,542,967 9,217,934 9,930,355 CHEV LEV &CHNLMOD 1,977,890 3,946,925 5,923,935 7,658,475 8,446,113 9,086,106 9,799,805 DAMAGES (Mean and Standard Deviation) 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 WITHOUT PROJECT 3,172,999 5,751,129 7,210,529 8,473,608 9,283,425 9,977,548 10,696,297 Standard Deviation 276,868 752,257 959,292 1,196,660 1,298,911 1,418,212 1,559,440 CHANNEL MOD 1,933,740 3,887,499 5,897,551 8,032,357 9,113,893 9,798,342 10,536,360 Standard Deviation 180,150 348,927 652,068 999,221 1,215,419 1,315,409 1,462,877 CHEVRON LEVEE 3,172,999 5,356,222 6,571,062 7,660,741 8,293,649 8,934,641 9,609,775 Standard Deviation 277,041 644,414 776,448 907,230 994,969 1,100,599 1,216,981 CHEV LEV &CHNLMOD 1,933,740 3,879,978 5,785,177 7,465,447 8,218,589 8,830,765 9,508,704 Standard Deviation 180,026 348,830 622,925 833,795 944,444 1,033,415 1,144,877 76
Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Attachment C: Regional Economic Development (RED) Regional Economic Impact of Funding Flood Risk Management Construction Orestimba Creek Project The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) planning guidance notebook (ER 1105-2-100) states that while National Economic Development (NED) and Environmental Quality (EQ) accounts are required, display of Regional Economic Development (RED) is discretionary. The Corps 1991 NED Procedures Manual states there should be no doubt that RED benefits are real and legitimate benefits. The concern, from a federal perspective, is that they are often offset by RED activity in other regions. But for the local community, these benefits are important and can help them in making their preferred planning decisions. Existing guidance from USACE offers limited detail in describing either the definition or the procedures to determine RED 11 . Principles and Guidelines (P&G 1983) states that the RED account registers changes in the distribution of regional economic activity that result from each alternative plan. Evaluations of regional effects are to be carried out using nationally consistent projections of income, employment, output and population. Input-output models are characterized by their ability to evaluate the effects of industries on each other, through both the assumptions that any industry uses the outputs of others as its inputs, and that the outputs of any industry are partly used by other industries. Most typical measures of economic activity examine only the total output or employment of an industry, or the amount of final consumption demand provided by a given industry. The input-output model provides a much more comprehensive view of the interrelated economic impacts. Specifically, levee and floodwall construction projects as well as procurement activities directly create employment and purchases of goods and services throughout the County of Stanislaus and the State of California; however, economic activities associated with flood related construction funds do not end with construction and procurement. These activities also create jobs and output in other industries in the State and County. The econometric analysis allows for the evaluations of the full range of economic impacts related to specific economic activities (construction and procurement) by calculating the direct, indirect, and induced benefits of the activities in the specific geographical designation (Stanislaus County and State of California). * Direct Benefits consist of economic activity contained exclusively within the designated sector(s). This includes all expenditures made by the companies or organizations in the industry and all employees who work directly for them. * Indirect Benefits define the creation of additional economic activity that results from linked businesses, suppliers of goods and services, and provision of operating inputs. * Induced Benefits measure the consumption expenditures of direct and indirect sector 11 The Institute of Water Resources released a draft White Paper titled Review or Guidance and Procedures of Regional Economic Development and Other Social Effects, August 2006. The analysis of RED for this study is consistent with this draft document. 77
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