Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Summary of Flood Related Impacts: The positive attributes contributing to community resilience of Newman over other area community settings when encountering a flood event are: 1) The logical avenues of escape from a flood event are to the west and south. Six most notable routes include westbound Orestimba Creek Road, and westbound Shiells Road; Southbound Draper Road, Upper Road, Highway 33, and Canal School Road provide a variety of choices for evacuation from Newman. These avenues of escape could play a significant part in alleviating fatalities. Due to the relatively low depth of flooding (less than one-foot at the 100 year event) and the significant travel time of flood water, evacuation should be conducted without significant road congestion occurrence. 2) Due to the general geomorphology of floodplain, depths of flood are generally shallow (averaging less than 1 foot and not exceeding 3 feet in depth except in ditches and low lying areas). Deepest flooding is expected to be isolated primarily to the general business district, with most of the residential flooding being shallow, not exceeding one foot in depth. Therefore, the chance of death by a flood event is considered to be minimal. 3) Household income for Newman is comparable to the surrounding area cities and Stanislaus County. The 2008 median household income for Newman was $49,554 compared to $50,359 for Stanislaus County. The impediments to community resilience of Newman when encountering a flood event are: 1) Over 50% of the households in Newman speak languages other than English in the home, which may cause communication barriers during emergency periods. 3) Unemployment of greater than 18 percent in March, 2011 compared to 12.3 percent for the State of California. Unemployment is an indicator that there may be financial issues in dealing with re-establishing housing. 4) Housing rentals are approximately 26 percent of Newman’s households. The high rental population highlights indications of community cohesion issues. Research indicates that renters do not have the same community pride as owners thereby having more barriers to direct community involvement in redeveloping the community after a flood event. 5) The literature indicates that families having over 4 or more persons have more financial difficulty than those of lesser number. Accordingly, with Newman having over 41 percent of households with families having 4 or more members, community planners need to be aware of pending issues. 6) With over 29 percent of Newman’s residents having less than high school education there may be constraints in the ability of those residents to adequately deal with local, state, and federal information requirements surrounding recovery efforts. 7) Newman has grown over 50% in the past 10 years compared to the Stanislaus county growth of less than 18 percent. A rapid growth rate in population is highly correlated with low community cohesion. The sense of belonging, cooperation, and strong sense of community pride are dynamic factors which assist in the restoration of the community after a catastrophic event. Due to the rapid growth in the Newman community bonds and sense of owning community issues may not be as strong as other more slow growing cities. 8) Newman has limited medical facilities available to it’s general population compared to the United States. The density of physicians per 10,000 residents is 48% less than the U.S. average. 100
Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 This metric indicates very low medical assistance should a destructive flood occur. Fortunately, due to the relative short traveling distance, the cities of Modesto and Turlock may provide some medical assistance to the residents of Newman if necessary. Emergency Action Plan The City of Newman has an Emergency Action Plan (EAP) in place intended to reduce the risk of human life loss and injury and minimize property damage during an unusual or emergency event. It defines responsibilities and provides procedures designed to identify conditions that may endanger the community’s residents and to specify preplanned actions to be followed to minimize property damage and loss of life in the event of a flood. As soon as an emergency event is observed or reported, the City Manager shall immediately determine the emergency level. After the emergency level has been determined, the people on the corresponding emergency level notification chart shall be notified immediately. The Stanislaus County Office of Emergency Services has responsibility for notifying and evacuating downstream people at risk and setting up road closures. If it is determined that conditions do not pose a threat to people or property, the Stanislaus County Office of Emergency Services will be advised to terminate EAP operations. If and when the public needs to be notified, the medium for notification will be the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) and Reverse 911. Population at Risk and Life Loss Implications The risk of lost lives is of primary concern to the Corps of Engineers. Loss of life estimation includes many variables such as warning time, time of day, flood arrival time, escape routes, distance/time to safety, depth of water, etc. The loss of life methodology graph illustrates how these variables effect the loss of life estimation process. Official Notification: The Warning Issuance Time is defined as the time at which an official evacuation order is released from the responsible emergency management agency to the population at risk. Life-loss estimates are highly sensitive to warning issuance time and other relationships that affect the effectiveness of warning and evacuation processes for the population at risk. The decisions made by someone responsible for initiating flood warnings are influenced by a number of factors, including: The reliability of the available forecasts and how this changes with lead-time. The amount of time that the public would need to respond effectively to a warning. The delay between a warning being initiated and it being received by the public. The need to avoid issuing warnings unnecessarily, because of the wasted efforts of those who respond and because a record of false alarms means that fewer would respond to future warnings. The need to avoid situations where a warning condition is rescinded only for the warning to be re-issued within a short time, again because of the wasted efforts of the general public and because such occurrences would bring the flood warning service into disrepute. 101
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Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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