Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 4.0 Uncertainty and Other Categories .................................................................... 16 4.1 FLO-2D Grid Cells and Parcel Assignments using GIS.............................. 16 4.2 Economic Uncertainty Parameters ............................................................... 16 4.3 Other Damage Categories .............................................................................. 19 5.0 Expected Annual Damages –Without Project Conditions .............................. 21 5.1 HEC-FDA Model ............................................................................................ 21 5.2 Estimation of Expected Annual Damages..................................................... 21 5.3 Probability-Stage-Damage Functions ........................................................... 23 5.3.1 Stage-damage curves and alluvial fan (FLO-2D) floodplain modeling ..... 25 5.4 Existing Condition Expected Annual Damages ........................................... 26 5.5 Effect of Risk and Uncertainty on Existing Condition Urban Expected Annual Damages in HEC-FDA .................................................................................. 26 5.6 EAD Future Conditions and Equivalent Annual Damages ........................ 29 5.7 Project Performance- Without Project Conditions ..................................... 29 6.0 With Project Conditions –Flood Damage Reduction Benefits ........................ 31 6.1 2009 Preliminary Incremental Alternatives Analysis .................................. 31 6.1.1 Project Conditions- Model Simulations ........................................................ 32 6.1.2 Average Annual Equivalent Damages –With Project Conditions .............. 32 6.1.3 Alternatives Evaluated – Preliminary Screening Net Benefit Analysis ..... 32 6.1.3.1 Alternatives Carried forward from Preliminary Screening for Further Evaluation .................................................................................................................... 34 6.1.4 Optimization of the Chevron Levee Height .................................................. 35 6.1.4.1 Sensitivity of Optimization Height to Index Location ................................. 36 6.1.5 Incremental Analysis of the Channel Modifications ................................... 37 6.2 The Final Array of Alternatives .................................................................... 37 6.3 Annual Benefits for the Final Array of Alternatives ................................... 38 6.4 Probability Distribution – Damages Reduced .............................................. 39 6.5 Project Performance – With Project Conditions ......................................... 41 6.6 Other Benefits.................................................................................................. 42 7.0 Benefit-Cost Analysis .......................................................................................... 45 7.1 Annual Costs.................................................................................................... 45 ii
Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 7.2 Net Benefits ...................................................................................................... 45 7.2.1 The NED Plan .................................................................................................. 45 7.2.2 The Tentatively Recommended Plan ............................................................ 45 7.2.3 Benefits and Costs ........................................................................................... 45 7.2.3.1 Net Benefits and BCR sensitivity to uncertainty .......................................... 46 Attachment A: Without Project Hydrologic and Hydraulic Relationships ............. 49 Attachment B: Agricultural Economic Analysis ......................................................... 52 Attachment C: Regional Economic Development (RED)........................................... 77 Attachment D: Other Social Effects (OSE) ................................................................. 88 iii
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Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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