Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Table 9 Without Project Damages by Event Agricultural Equipment Loss by Flood Event October, 2011 Price Levels ------------------------ Flood Frequency------------------------- EQUIPMENT LOSSES 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 FRUITS AND NUTS 52,237 85,478 103,880 114,342 119,165 123,024 127,661 FIELD CROPS 56,202 128,706 179,626 232,560 254,942 276,830 294,348 PASTURE & ALFALFA 21,951 90,599 116,357 147,380 159,449 174,717 192,942 RICE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRUCK CROPS 40,774 50,616 61,978 73,036 85,462 94,088 103,512 VINE CROPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OTHER 104,006 126,426 142,690 120,194 164,540 170,164 174,762 TOTAL 275,170 481,825 604,531 687,512 783,558 838,823 893,225 * Seventy-five percent of the Pasture and Alfalfa Class is assumed to be used for alfalfa hay and equipment is appropriately adjusted. From discussions with local farmers, most of the commodities grown in the study are sold or stored in an area outside of the inundation area. The exception to this is the hay that is stored for use by area livestock. For purposes of this analysis it is assumed that the hay, when cut, is stacked at the edge of the field. Accordingly, the hay is accumulated from its first cutting at the beginning of May to its last cutting at the end of October. It is expected that the hay is used up proportionately during the five-month period of November through March of the following year. Using these assumptions, the annual storage at risk per acre is computed below in Table 10. 66
Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Table -10 Value of Alfalfa Hay Subject to Flooding October, 2011 Price Levels Without Project ----------------Accumlation Phase-------------------- ---------------Depletion Phase------------- Apr May Jun Jul Aug Spt Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Value of Hay 0 189 378 567 756 945 1134 1323 1058 793 528 265 Probability* 0.047 0.06 0.03 0 0 0.01 0.009 0.027 0.144 0.216 0.275 0.135 Computed Loss** 0.00 10.40 11.72 1.13 0.00 4.73 10.21 35.72 152.35 171.29 145.20 35.78 Ave Annual Loss*** $578.51 * Probability is the estimated probability of a flood event happening in a given month. ** Computed loss is the value of alfalfa hay expected to be lost given a flood event during a given month. *** Average annual loss is the weighted average of monthly computed losses. The number of acres of alfalfa presented in Table 11 below was used as a basis to compute losses that are expected to occur for each flood event. Alfalfa hay is assumed to represent approximately 75 percent of the total hay and pasture acreage in the study area. The acreage figures were adjusted accordingly. In addition, because the depth of flooding is very shallow, not all hay is expected to be unsalvageable. It is assumed that not more than 50 percent of the hay would come into direct contact with floodwater and the computation was adjusted to reflect that estimate. Table 11 Without Project Damages by event Alfalfa Hay Loss by Selected Flood Event October, 2011 Price Levels AG CLASS 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 Pasture & Alfalfa 542 2,237 2,873 3,639 3,937 4,314 4,764 Value of Hay per Acre at Risk Adjust for Alfalfa Hay Only Total Value of Hay at Risk Adjusted for Direct Contact with Water 579 579 579 579 579 579 579 407 1,678 2,155 2,729 2,953 3,236 3,573 235,166 970,602 1,246,553 1,578,909 1,708,207 1,871,782 2,067,031 117,583 485,301 623,277 789,455 854,104 935,891 1,033,515 67
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Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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