Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012
Summary of Flood Related Impacts:
The positive attributes contributing to community resilience of Newman over other area
community settings when encountering a flood event are:
1) The logical avenues of escape from a flood event are to the west and south. Six most notable
routes include westbound Orestimba Creek Road, and westbound Shiells Road; Southbound
Draper Road, Upper Road, Highway 33, and Canal School Road provide a variety of choices for
evacuation from Newman. These avenues of escape could play a significant part in alleviating
fatalities. Due to the relatively low depth of flooding (less than one-foot at the 100 year event)
and the significant travel time of flood water, evacuation should be conducted without significant
road congestion occurrence.
2) Due to the general geomorphology of floodplain, depths of flood are generally shallow
(averaging less than 1 foot and not exceeding 3 feet in depth except in ditches and low lying
areas). Deepest flooding is expected to be isolated primarily to the general business district, with
most of the residential flooding being shallow, not exceeding one foot in depth. Therefore, the
chance of death by a flood event is considered to be minimal.
3) Household income for Newman is comparable to the surrounding area cities and Stanislaus
County. The 2008 median household income for Newman was $49,554 compared to $50,359 for
Stanislaus County.
The impediments to community resilience of Newman when encountering a flood event are:
1) Over 50% of the households in Newman speak languages other than English in the home,
which may cause communication barriers during emergency periods.
3) Unemployment of greater than 18 percent in March, 2011 compared to 12.3 percent for the
State of California. Unemployment is an indicator that there may be financial issues in dealing
with re-establishing housing.
4) Housing rentals are approximately 26 percent of Newman’s households. The high rental
population highlights indications of community cohesion issues. Research indicates that renters
do not have the same community pride as owners thereby having more barriers to direct
community involvement in redeveloping the community after a flood event.
5) The literature indicates that families having over 4 or more persons have more financial
difficulty than those of lesser number. Accordingly, with Newman having over 41 percent of
households with families having 4 or more members, community planners need to be aware of
pending issues.
6) With over 29 percent of Newman’s residents having less than high school education there may
be constraints in the ability of those residents to adequately deal with local, state, and federal
information requirements surrounding recovery efforts.
7) Newman has grown over 50% in the past 10 years compared to the Stanislaus county growth
of less than 18 percent. A rapid growth rate in population is highly correlated with low
community cohesion. The sense of belonging, cooperation, and strong sense of community pride
are dynamic factors which assist in the restoration of the community after a catastrophic event.
Due to the rapid growth in the Newman community bonds and sense of owning community
issues may not be as strong as other more slow growing cities.
8) Newman has limited medical facilities available to it’s general population compared to the
United States. The density of physicians per 10,000 residents is 48% less than the U.S. average.
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