Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012
Using farm budget analysis, the per-acre damage values for major crop types in the study area
have been determined. These values are presented in Table 5 below.
Table 5 - Per Acre Crop Value and Damage Estimate
Selected Crop Type Gross Receipts* Per Acre Damage**
Field Crop – Corn Silage $1,051.00 $294.00
Truck Crop – Processed Tomatoes $2,642.00 $639.00
Alfalfa Hay $1,488.00 $543.00
Orchard – Walnuts $3,763.00 $430.00
* Gross Receipts are based on a three year average of yields and prices received for the selected crops. Data were
secured from current Stanislaus County Crop and Livestock Reports.
** Per Acre Damage is based on the monthly probability of flooding, the amount of annual costs incurred prior to the
flood event, the loss of net income incurred as a result of the re-establishment of lost alfalfa and orchard acreage,
removal of trash, and re-establishing the land to pre-flood condition.
A Palisades software program @Risk was used for evaluation of gross receipts. The @RISK
software allowed for the modeling of uncertainties associated with crop yield and price. Table
6below reflects the statistics related to selected crops evaluated in this analysis.
Table 6
Statistical Evaluation of Selected Crops using @Risk
Based on Four-Year Prices and Yields
Selected Crop Type Minimum Maximum Mean Standard
Deviation
Alfalfa Hay $1,064 $1,984 $1,469 199.33
Almonds $3,654 $4,650 $4,075 224.46
Common Beans $1,143 $1,341 $1,237 43.03
Corn Silage $680 $1,187 $925 122.50
Cotton $984 $1,312 $1,148 75.05
Small Grain Silage $361 $646 $502 70.12
Tomatoes - Processing $1,797 $3,709 $2,823 440.53
Walnuts $2,868 $4,527 $3,654 374.68
Damages to Farm Equipment and Storage
Equipment damages for each flood event were computed based upon the value of the on-farm
equipment as indicated in the “University of California Cooperative Extension Sample Costs to
Establish and Produce Associated Crops” and applied within the Orestimba Creek study area.
The equipment listed in the crop farm budgets had an associated value for the each assumed crop
enterprise. The value of equipment was used in the computation on an acre enterprise basis. An
example of a hypothetical field and row-crop farm cultivating 1,200 acres of processing tomatoes
appears in Table 7 below.
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