Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Figure 5-2: Index Locations (For Reporting and Sensitivity Runs) 28
Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Table 5-6: Index Point Sensitivity Runs Event Flow (cfs) Urban IP (unmodified) CCID IP (Sensitivity 1) Stage Newman IP (Sensitivity 2) Rural IP (Sensitivity 3) Std. Dev. (ft.) 99.9% 0 96.12 108.61 90.13 107.72 0.6 20.0% 3,634 96.12 108.61 90.13 119.74 0.6 10.0% 5,679 99.39 109.01 90.53 120.44 0.6 5.0% 7,946 99.48 110.54 90.7 120.75 0.6 2.0% 11,208 99.5 111.12 90.74 120.98 0.6 1.0% 13,831 99.6 111.33 90.86 121.08 0.6 0.5% 16,553 99.7 111.37 90.89 121.18 0.6 0.2% 20,255 99.79 111.47 90.93 121.27 0.6 Urban WO Project EAD ($1,000's) $3,434* $6,836 $10,138 $3,162 -- * For the final EAD used in this documentation, the Urban IP 99.9% ACE stage was modified in HEC-FDA to mimic the Rural IP, roughly 12 feet below the 20% ACE stage. The resulting WO project EAD was used in this document and can be found in Table 5-5. 5.6 EAD Future Conditions and Equivalent Annual Damages The without-project equivalent annual damage reflects the damage value associated with the without-project condition over the period of analysis and under changing hydrology, hydraulic, and economic conditions in the study area. Essentially, equivalent annual damages are expected annual damages that have been converted to a single present worth value and then amortized over the analysis period using the federally mandated discount rate of 4%. The majority of development within Newman is planned outside of the current 0.2% (1/500) annual chance floodplains (and the current FEMA 1% (1/100) annual chance floodplain). With the current state of the real estate market and development plans being halted all across California, it’s not safe to assume that Newman will continue to grow at the same rate (approximately 7%) it had from 1987-2007. All new development that does happen to occur within existing floodplains will likely build with the first floor foundation moderately out of the areas 1% floodplain, so any damages would only occur for very infrequent events (0.5% and 0.2% annual chance). Sensitivity runs have been made within FDA regarding future growth and even if Newman did continue to grow at its past rate, very little would be added to the total damages/benefits (less than 1% of the total) and would not impact the plan formulation process. Because of all these circumstances, the PDT is assuming there will be no significant development within the floodplain in the foreseeable future. Therefore, future conditions are assumed to be the same as present conditions effectively making expected annual damages the same as equivalent annual damages and will be referred to as such from this point forward. 5.7 Project Performance- Without Project Conditions 29
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Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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