Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 employees. Examples of induced benefits include employees' expenditures on items such as retail purchases, housing, doctors and dentists, banking, and insurance. Additionally, the input-output model can be used to quantify the multiplier effect that occurs when new employment is added in a geographical area via the designated economic activities. The multiplier effect is generated when new employment is added in one sector, but generates additional employment in other sectors which supply goods and services (indirect impact) and consumer services to employees (induced impact). The measurement of the economic impacts in this analysis was performed based on an inputoutput model called RECONS based upon the interconnectivity of sectors previously used in IMPLAN developed at the University of Minnesota specifically for use in regional analysis. RECONS was developed by the USACE Institute for Water Resources (IWR). This following discussion and report summarizes the results of the RECONS analysis on the Modesto Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The USACE IWR and the Louis Berger Group developed the regional economic impact modeling tool called RECONS (Regional ECONomic System) to provide estimates of regional and national job creation and retention and other economic measures such as income, value added, and sales. The modeling tool automates calculations and generates estimates of jobs and other economic measures such as income and sales associated with USACE’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) spending and annual Civil Work program spending. This is done by extracting multipliers and other economic measures from more than 1,500 regional economic models that were built specifically for USACE’s project locations. These multipliers were then imported to a database and the tool matches various spending profiles to the matching industry sectors by location to produce economic impact estimates. The Tool was intended for use as a means to document the performance of direct investment spending of the USACE as directed by the ARRA. The Tool also allows the USACE to evaluate project and program expenditures associated with the annual expenditure by the USACE. The economic impacts presented show the Modesto Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the State of California’s inter-related economic impacts resulting from an infusion of flood reduction construction funds. The Modesto MSA is geographically identified by the US Census Bureau for purposes of providing information concerning the US Census demographics. Below is a map showing the Modesto MSA and the location of Newman within the MSA. 78
Economics Appendix – Draft Report - Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study, Stanislaus County, California – September 2012 Figure 1: For this analysis the Modesto MSA and State of California were both used as the geographical designation to assess the overall economic impacts of the construction funds. This places a frame around the economic impacts where the activity is internalized in this frame and leakages (payments made to imports or value-added sectors which do not in turn re-spend the dollars within the area) are not included in the total impacts. In this section, the evaluation of measurable monetary RED benefits (beyond the NED benefits described in prior sections) and the results of the RECONS models used in determining RED will be described. Table 1 below reflects the complexities of the Modesto California MSA in 2008. As shown by the Table, 64,844 persons are employed in the Statistical Metropolitan Area of Modesto California providing an output to the nation of $8,214,000,000 annually. 79
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Orestimba Creek Feasibility Study - Stanislaus County

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