ISSUE 182 : Jul/Aug - 2010 - Australian Defence Force Journal

Fundamental to the argument presented in this paper is the assertion that military capabilityand complexity are in a symbiotic relationship. Capability can rarely be increased without acorresponding increase in complexity. Complexity, however, comes at a cost. The costs come ina number of forms including finance, resources and the vulnerabilities to which the capabilityis exposed. This can be summarised as increased capability equals increased complexity equalsincreased vulnerability, forming a paradox of military technology. The paradox is that:The advantage provided by the increased complexity of a military capability increasesthe vulnerability of that same capability to systemic collapse due to its reliance on complexsupply chains.This suggests that capability acquisition strategies based on increasingly complex technologymay no longer be universally appropriate. For the ADF, which aims to maintain a strategiccapability advantage over potential adversaries, this is a cause for significant concern.This paper will describe how military capability has evolved and its relationship with complexity.While complexity comes in many forms, its impact on military capability will be examinedprimarily through the dependence on global supply chains. Threats to current levels of militarycapabilities will then be examined through the ‘strategic shock’ model, before describingthe paradox of military technology. Finally, measures to mitigate against this paradox willbe discussed.The evolution of military capabilityMilitary technology has increased dramatically over recent centuries. The increase in technology,while dependent on technological innovation and resource availability, is essentially a problemsolvingresponse. A prime example was the 1860 launch of the French warship Gloire which,with its armour plating and steam propulsion, essentially rendered the sail-powered woodenwarship obsolete overnight. 3 By the end of the century, the world’s navies were dominated byarmour-plated, steam-driven warships. The process of technological advancement, either tosolve a problem or create a problem for an adversary, is replicated throughout military history,resulting in the highly-sophisticated and technologically-advanced equipment used today.As technology advances, so to does the management requirement. The ADF manages thisrequirement through what is known as ‘Fundamental Inputs to Capability’ (FIC). The FIC arethe necessary inputs that transform a piece of military technology into a capability. The FICinclude the technology itself and a number of other elements including supplies, facilities,training, personnel and finance. As an example, the best tank in the world is useless withouttrained crews, sufficient fuel and ammunition, and areas in which to train, supported by a soundmaintenance system, all of which are dependent on the allocation of appropriate financialresources. The FIC are also a useful tool to analyse both the complexity and vulnerabilities ofmilitary capabilities.45