ISSUE 182 : Jul/Aug - 2010 - Australian Defence Force Journal

e taken to reduce the impact of ‘scarcity industrialism’. These include developing a logisticssystem focused on resiliency and developing redundancy for key systems.The ADF has a long history of programs aimed at enhancing efficiency. The Defence WhitePaper 2009 includes the Strategic Reform Program (SRP) that aims to achieve an efficiencydividend of $20 billion over the next decade. However, scarcity industrialism implies thatthe ADF’s logistic and sustainment systems should focus on resilience rather than efficiency.The SRP includes actions such as reducing inventory holdings, a risk-weighted approach toinventory management and a reduction in the number of warehousing sites. These measuresarguably undermine resilience, whereas a resilient sustainment system would increaseinventory holdings, to assist in reducing the impact of disruptions to the supply chain, withwarehousing being as close as possible to the end user.Finally, the Defence organisation is reliant on over 4500 different software applications 37 ,including corporate information systems such as PMKEYS (human resources management),SDSS (inventory management) and ROMAN (financial management). Like any capability,these systems and their linkages are reliant on the fundamental inputs to capability, such asfunding and contractor support. They are also network hubs and the failure of any one wouldsignificantly undermine ADF activities and operations. While the likelihood of this occurringmight be low, it would be a prudent to develop contingency plans in the event of their failure.ConclusionMilitary capability is fundamental to the ADF and its ability to protect Australia and its nationalinterests. Current levels of capability are dependent on a highly complex, interlinked andinterdependent global supply chain. Because of a number of converging threats, only some ofwhich have been examined in this paper, it appears unlikely that current levels of complexitycan be maintained indefinitely. These threats are likely to present themselves as a series of‘strategic shocks’ that will precipitate the transition from abundance to scarcity industrialism.This transition represents an unprecedented challenge for the ADF due to its reliance on acomplex industrial base and gives rise to a paradox, which is not a problem or even a seriesof problems. Rather, it presents a series of dilemmas to ADF planners that require a holisticresponse. Based on an analysis of the factors leading to this paradox, the most effectiveresponse appears to be a reduction in the complexity of military capabilities.Major Cameron Leckie, a member of the Royal Australian Corps of Signals, is currently aninstructor at the Land Warfare Centre. He has served in a number of regimental postings,including Officer Commanding 136 Signals Squadron. His operational service includesOPERATIONS WARDEN, ANODE and SUMATRA ASSIST. He holds a Bachelor of Science and aGraduate Diploma of Education. He has written extensively on the topic of peak oil andis a member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas and the Defence Peak OilStudy Group.53