ISSUE 182 : Jul/Aug - 2010 - Australian Defence Force Journal

NOTES1. Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard’s Almanack, June 1758, preface, although the proverb popularlydates to the unhorsing of King Richard III at the Battle of Bosworthy in August 1485.2. M. Van Creveld, Supplying War: logistics from Wallenstein to Patton, Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1977, pp. 8-11.3. R.S. Keats, ‘Transition to Modern Seafaring’, American Society of Oceanographers Journal, Vol. 11,No. 1, pp. 3-4; see accessed 29November 2009.4. T. Homer-Dixon, ‘Synchronous Failure: Crash and Creativity in the 21 st Century’, paper presentedto the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Montreal, March 2004, p. 8; see accessed 13 October 2009.5. J. Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988.6. M. Simmons, ‘The Oil and Gas System is Sick’, address to The Colony Club, New York, 4 February2009, pp. 50-1; see accessed 15 October 2009.7. N. Freier, ‘Known Unknowns: Unconventional “Strategic Shocks” in Defense Strategy Development’,paper prepared for Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, November 2008, pp. 1-5; see accessed 13 October 2009.8. Energy Watch Group, ‘Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook’, report October 2007, pp. 33-6; see accessed 3 September 2009.9. British Petroleum, ‘BP Statistical Review of World Energy’, on-line report published 2009; see accessed 2 September 2009.10. For example, despite historically high oil prices in the period 2005-08, oil exports from the world’stop 15 oil exporters, who provide over 90 per cent of all oil exports, have declined since 2005according to data reported by the US Energy Information Administration (US Department of Energy);see . Additionally, Jeffrey Brown and Samuel Foucher argue that oilexports will decline more rapidly than oil production, with the top five oil exporters approachingzero net exports by 2031 (+/- 7 years). See J. Brown and S. Foucher, ‘A Quantitative Assessment ofFuture Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exports’, report on Financial Sense University websitedated 8 January 2008; see accessed 16 September 2009.11. M. Hook, R. Hirsch and K. Aleklett, ‘Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oilproduction’, Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 6, June 2009, pp. 2262-72: see accessed 3 September 2009.12. N. Gagnon, C. Hall and B. Brinker, ‘A Preliminary Investigation of Energy Return on Energy Investmentfor Global Oil and Gas Production’, Energies, Vol. 2, 2009, pp. 490-503; see accessed 30 September 2009.13. ‘Exergy’ is the correct thermodynamic term for available or useful energy, or energy capable ofperforming mechanical, chemical or thermal work.14. G.M. Mudd, ‘The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and TheirEnvironmental Implications for the Future’, Research Report No. 5, published by the Department ofCivil Engineering, Monash University and the Mineral Policy Institute, April 2009 (revised edition);see accessed 21 August 2009.54