ISSUE 182 : Jul/Aug - 2010 - Australian Defence Force Journal

The paradox of military technology states that while increased complexity in a military forceresults in increased capability, it also increases the likelihood that the capability will beunavailable for use because of the collapse of the complex supply chain required to maintainthe capability. The implication is that complex military technologies might not be the bestacquisition strategy for defence forces in the future.CapabilityA potentialfuture trend?Unplanned, chaoticcapability reductionHistoricalTrendComplexityFigure 1. The paradox of military technologyThe historical trend shows that over time both complexity and capability have increased. Thistrend creates a paradox of military technology. Left unmitigated, it is likely to result in anunplanned, chaotic capability reduction. The potential future trend suggests that defence forcesshould focus capability acquisition on accepting reduced capability but significantly reducedcomplexity to ensure they are still capable of achieving their missions.An example of an unplanned, chaotic capability reduction would be the financial collapse ofa company that manufactures proprietary parts for a piece of equipment. When the companycollapses, the ability to source parts will stop. The equipment may remain operational for aperiod of time based on extant repair part holdings. But there will come a point where theequipment fleet, or parts thereof, will become unserviceable for a lack of spare parts. This maybe a short- or long-term issue, depending on the nature of the equipment and the ability ofother companies to manufacture the part. Regardless of the timeframe, such a problem willnegatively impact military capability and the ability to conduct successful military operations.This paradox is not without historical precedent. For example, during the early years ofWorld War 2, the Wehrmacht re-roled a number of motorised infantry divisions to lightinfantry because the vehicle fleets could not be maintained. A more contemporary example isprovided by the GPS satellite constellation. According to the US Government AccountabilityOffice, there is a risk that current levels of GPS satellite service may not be maintained as50