ISSUE 182 : Jul/Aug - 2010 - Australian Defence Force Journal

Complexity and collapseMaintaining complexity comes at a significant cost. Anthropologist and historian, JosephTainter, in his ground-breaking work, The Collapse of Complex Societies, 5 argues that humansocieties are problem-solving organisations that increase in complexity in order to solveproblems. This complexity places a cost on society in terms of energy, resources and capital.Over time, investment in complexity as a problem-solving response often reaches a point ofdeclining returns.Tainter concludes that once a society reaches a certain point of complexity, the costs requiredjust to maintain the status quo are very high. Solving additional problems incurs further costswithout yielding a net positive return. A current example is the oil industry, which some arguecould require as much as US$100 trillion over coming decades just to replace ageing andrust-affected infrastructure. 6 There are a number of trends that suggest the global economyis currently approaching a point where the costs to maintain the current level of complexitycannot be sustained.These trends will be analysed through Nathan Freier’s ‘strategic shock’ model. 7 Freier arguesthat although most future shocks will be unconventional and mostly non-military in origin,defence strategy development has been overly reactive and lacking in imagination, resulting innations being vulnerable to surprise. According to Freier, strategic shocks can be characterisedas having an important impact, stretching conventional wisdom, such that it can be difficultto convince others of their likelihood, and so complex that it can be difficult to imagine whatcould be done in response. Nevertheless, strategic shocks are generally predictable, beingbased on long-term trends. Three interrelated and interdependent threats that fit this modelare peak oil, peak minerals and debt deflation.Oil is the world’s primary energy source. There are a number of trends that suggest global oilproduction will commence a terminal decline sooner rather than later. These trends includethat global oil discoveries have been in long-term decline since the 1960s, despite significanttechnological advances, 8 that the majority of the world’s oil producing nations have passedtheir domestic oil production peak, 9 that oil exports from many oil exporting nations are indecline, 10 that depletion rates from existing fields are increasing over time 11 and that theenergy return on investment is declining over time. 12 The massive growth in useful energyprovided by fossil fuels—or more correctly—‘exergy’, 13 has been responsible for much ofthe economic growth in the 20th century. With no viable near-term alternatives, the level ofeconomic activity seems likely to parallel declines in the production of oil, followed by naturalgas and coal.Peak oil is not the only peak of concern. Mineral ore grades are gradually declining and areunlikely to increase in the future, 14 as humans tend to use first the easiest to access andhighest quality resources. Reputable analysis suggests the production of 11 key mineralsis declining. 15 The future availability of some minerals vital for many modern technologies,including platinum, indium and tantalum, are also of concern. 16 The continuing availabilityof rare earths, crucial to modern military technologies, such as precision-guided munitions,lasers, satellite communications and optical lenses, 17 are also problematic. China currently47