Agronomijas v stis - Latvijas Lauksaimniecības universitāte

ilberry may increase by 30 % in the Vitebsk, 21 % in the Minsk, 15 % in the Mogilev and 12 % inthe Grodno SPFAs. Beginning in 2030, the cowberry resources may stabilise in all the SPFAs.According to the projections, by 2050 the amounts of all the principal wild berry plants in Belarusmay increase by 11 % (from 48,990 to 54,387 tons; Table 1.). In view of aridization in Polesye,however, the decrease in the amounts may be a maximum in the Brest (5 %) and Gomel (5 %)SPFAs. In the Vitebsk, Minsk, Grodno and Mogilev SPFAs the berry amounts may increase by 21percent, 17 %, 9 % and 7 %, respectively. Beginning in 2030, the amounts of the wild berry plantsmay stabilise in all the SPFAs.The predicted stabilisation of berry resources by 2030 will be due not only to the levelling andimprovement of the age and species structures of the forest fund but also to the measures taken tostabilise the general environmental situation in the republic. Among these are reswamping, repairsto drainage systems, the establishment of forest strips and the certification of harvesting berries.ConclusionsBased on the principal parameter values for principal wild berry plant resources for 2008 andfactors that govern their climatically determinate dynamics, we have forecasted the dynamics of theresources to the year 2050 at 5-year intervals.The amounts of European cranberries and bilberries may increase, while those of cowberries andbog blueberries may decrease towards the end of the forecast period. On the whole the amounts ofall the principal wild berry plants may increase by 11 percent.A complex of silvicultural and other measures should be worked out to conserve and increaseminor forest product resources. Silvicultural and special-purpose practices are being developed toovercome negative berry plant productivity trends.References1. Alexandrovich Y.M., Kochanovsky C.B. and Shershen L.I. (2003) Report. Project Forecasting ofenvironmental changes and working out measures to ensure environmental safety of the Republic ofBelarus for 2010-2020, Economic Research Institute of Ministry of Economic Affairs of Belarus, Minsk,Belarus. (In Russian) .2. Grimashevich V.V. (2001) Effects of spring frosts on the bearing of bilberries in Polesye. In: Questionsof Forest Ecology and Forest Exploitation in Ukrainian Polesye, issue 2 (8), Volyn, Zhitomir, theUkraine, pp. 152-154. (In Russian)3. Grimashevich V.V. (2002) The rational use of minor forest produce resources in Belarus, ForestInstitute of NAS of Belarus, Gomel, Belarus, 261p. (In Russian)4. Grimashevich V.V. (2005) The efficient use of resources of wild berry plants and edible mushrooms inBelarus in the conditions of market-oriented economy In: Transactions of the Forest Institute of NAS ofBelarus, issue 64, Forest Institute of NAS of Belarus, Gomel, Belarus, pp. 421-430. (In Russian)5. Grimashevich V.V. (2008) Substantiation of methods for a climatically determinate forecast of resourcesof wild berry plants and edible mushrooms. In: Kovalevich A.I. (ed.) Theoretical and Applied Aspects ofRational Use and Reproduction of Minor Forest Products. The International Practical-ScientificConference, Forest Institute of NAS of Belarus, Gomel, Belarus, pp. 28-32. (In Russian)6. Lazareva M.S. (2007) Report. Project 1.04/1 A climatically determinate forecast of the typologicalstructure of pineries and resources of minor forest products in Belarus to the year 2050. Phase 1.04/1.02A climatically determinate forecast of the typological structure of pineries in Belarus to the year 2050(state registration No 20065447), Forest Institute of NAS of Belarus, Gomel, Belarus, 61 p. (In Russian)7. Loginov V.F. (ed.) (2004) A forecast of environmental changes in Belarus for 2010-2020,Minsktipproekt, Minsk, Belarus, 180 p. (In Russian)8. Loginov V.F., Sachek G.I. and Mikutsky V.S. (2003) Climate changes and their consequences inBelarus, TONPIK Additional Liability Co, Minsk, Belarus, 330 p. (In Russian)9. Minin A.A. (2000) Phehology of Russian Plain: data and general conclusions, Minsk: ABF PublishingCo, 160 p. (In Russian)10. National strategy of steady development of the Republic of Belarus (1997) Minsk, Belarus (In Russian)11. Strategic plan of development of the forestry in Belarus (1997) Ministry of Forestry of Belarus, Minsk,Belarus178 p. (In Russian)34